Member Info for Redtom

Thanks DT.
You raise a fair point about tranche sizing but recently I have found (in Glen) that I nearly always get a better price for 5000 shares than I do for 10000 or bigger which more than covers the small extra cost. HL allow rapid fire buying so very little time is needed to buy the amount I'm after.

Had Glen incurred stamp duty, I would have had to pay £130,000 of it over the last 5 months. This shows the beauty of the few SD free shares.

Thanks Scoop. I think you are right. The thought of going back (and I haven't even left yet) is horrible.
Therefore I need it to be successful. We shall see.

Billy,
My new strategy has to be a safer and more secure strategy.
So I will buy boring dividend shares across a spectrum of sectors but all with 5%+ yields. I will hold these long term as long as they continue to pay dividends. If they go up or down, I will just leave them and use divi income to live off.
But I will keep about 25% as trading money and that is what I will spend my time on. I will need to beat my 'dividend portfolio' by a good margin with my trading pot to justify it.
For me this is quite an exciting opportunity as long as the markets don't crash just after I become fully invested!!
Tom

Billy,
The vast majority of the money is in my SIPP and ISA and my wife's SIPP and ISA. We were both lucky enough to work for companies that had decent pension schemes (but not final salary) which we generously contributed into when we could afford it. So I recently transferred them all into SIPPs that I fully control. Naturally I control the ISAs too.
I'm 55 so I now have pension freedom so I can dip into my SIPP and take out anything I want. So we will live off the tax free lump sums plus a bit of drawdown. The plan is not to pay too much tax as I've paid more than my fair share all my life.
But bottom line is the pension freedom gives me more options thus I can 'retire' at 55 and try to be a full time trader. I tell my wife I am going to be our 'fund manager' as that sounds safer!!
If it goes a bit tits up I go back to work part time.
If I really screw it up, I find a full time job again!

Just done a back of a fag packet for total trades in all stocks since 1 April 2018 and it is just over 4000 trades.

DT, I know. A bit of a reality check for me.
I have to slow down as I am jacking in my job this week and will do this full time. But this means taking less risk going forward. I just wanted to see what I've been doing.
Average deal size was 8706 shares which sounds right as I tend to do it 10000 & 5000 tranches. But that totals 8418720 shares traded. But that is a scary trading value of £26m.
That is a serious risk that won't be repeated.

Billy this is just Glen. I haven't counted other stocks but I've traded Glen more than anything in the last 5 months. Before that I traded the hell out of Randgold & Shire.

I don't really chart as I don't understand them enough. I tend to go with market sentiment (ie momentum & trend I guess) and gut feel and opportunity.

Actually I missed an account so total is 967 trades. HL will be happy as that is nearly £6k in commission for them.

A lot of us trade Glen regularly so I thought I would see how many trades I had done since 1 Oct 2018, ie in nearly 5 months. The total shocked me a little as I have done 873 trades in that period.
It's unpredictable but very tradeable!

Bruce, it seems to have lost momentum. Maybe 311p is todays peak?

Scoop,

I didn't sell either. I think this is start of a bigger rise.
I may not sell at all today even if it does hit 312p.
Got a positive feeling for a change. A positive US start could take this to 315p
Tom

Bruce,
That's a good question.
Glen would only buy back at a price they believe to be below FV.
At 360p I think they would continue to buy assuming that had become the new norm (as opposed to a spike). If it headed closer to 400p I would expect the buy backs to slow down as it would add less value to shareholders.

Bruce,
I trade Glen all the time and would normally cash out with today rise as I bought at 4:20pm yesterday.
But I'm feeling more positive given the copper price, given results are out (ie no horrible surprises around the corner) and US/China deal closer. So I probably won't sell before the weekend even though I have a big exposure. There is a risk too but my view is that the risks are outweighed.

Bruce, possibly but there is no predicting Glen any more.
Hopefully the US will recognise the rise in copper more than the UK market has done.
I guess progress in the US China talk will be a big factor. A favourable deal will be a big deal for all commodities and Glen will benefit.
Maybe copper is irrelevant until the bigger picture (ie US China) is known.

Billy,

Good question and one I'm puzzled about too.
In the past a surge in copper like this would trigger a daily gain of 10p/20p/30p no problem. But we get a meagre 6p after a 10p fall yesterday.
I don't get it.
There are daily buy backs of 2m or 4m shares too yet we are range bound. Admittedly the range is getting higher but this used to be a very volatile stock in both directions. But lately it creeps up but can fall sharply.
I can only assume that there is a big seller somewhere in the background as there seems no other logic for such a stagnant SP.
Let's see what happens if the copper price is maintained for a few weeks. Perhaps the re-rating is merely delayed.
Tom

Copper is roughly the price it was on 29th June 2018. SP has not caught up yet. If copper maintains (or increases from) these levels, there will be a serious relating of all copper producers.

The current copper price is 8.7% above the average price Glen obtained for the whole of 2018 and 2019 production is expected to increase by 5.9%. Put together, this increases 2019 copper revenues by 15%. Nice

Billy,

That's a good quote.
I'm guessing that they kept the divi flat as that is a firm and expected obligation. Whereas they have full control of the buy backs so can control the associated cash and use it differently if they needed/wanted to.
But their M&A ambitions are very different and they are more shareholder focused than they used to be. Ivan will want to leave (within 5 years) when the SP is at an all time high as he (and many of the staff & management) hold a lot of Glen stock.
Cash is king and Glen is providing a royal sum.

Ken, nice little profit again for you. Enjoy your hols.
I may sell later, still undecided.

TFE,

I think we posted at same time and said the same thing! At least we were consistent!

DT,

I think you've got it wrong re buy backs.
They will be cancelled in due course. They kind of have already been cancelled to the extent that they have no voting rights nor are they legally included included in the number of shares for EPS purposes.
I've worked with lots of plcs over the years that have held buy back shares in 'Treasury' for years. It's just an admin thing.
Consider them dead.
The interesting question for me is that companies generally do buy backs where they consider the SP to be significantly below FV. So what does the management believe is the true value? The buy backs started at a price a lot higher than where we are now so that implies that their view of FV is way way higher than 305. Probably around 400p. So I hope they expand the buy back programme beyond the $2bn as suggested in the report.