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LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Cobalt's near year-long price slide is finally coming to an end, but high inventories of the battery metal will stop prices quickly re-claiming 2018's 10-year highs.

London Metal Exchange prices have crashed to two-year lows of $32,000 a tonne compared with levels near $100,000 in the first half of 2018.

The drop was sparked by rising supplies from the artisanal and industrial sectors in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a surplus of cobalt chemicals, used to make rechargeable batteries to power electric vehicles, in top consumer China.

Traders looking to buy cobalt to cover forward sales are expected to help a price recovery, but industry sources say it is likely to be muted as high stocks in Africa will provide a buffer against supply shocks.

The DRC accounts for most of the world's cobalt supplies. It comes in the form of hydroxide which is converted into chemicals for the lithium-ion batteries also used in mobile devices.

Billy, whilst the markets are remaining reasonably positive, Glen has dropped into a negative pattern. The increased trading ranges seemed to have gone so we might be heading into a potential bearish position. Things change quickly.
Only a week or so ago this was looking very rosy for a breakout. A week on, this seems less likely in the near future.
I guess even the analysts are a bit nervous ahead of the results. Given its big trading arm, Glen's results are more difficult to predict.
I'm hoping that the recent drop is exactly that, ie nervousness before results, so I'm holding as it appears to be very cheap based on known cashflows, production forecasts, dividends etc. It is the unknown bits that make us nervous.

Ken, Plus500 issued an unexpected profits warning so not quite the same.
I bought a small holding a few minutes ago and hope for a quick return.

Ken,
That the kind of worry that I have.
How will they comment about the future. Any reference to a 'slow down' or 'softening of demand/prices' or similar could cause a drop even if the financials are very good. I'm hoping that this is not the case.
I want them to be positive about increased output, increased FCF, increased dividend, renewal of the share buy-back programme etc. I suspect we may trade in a tight range from now til 20th.

Slightly up but not dynamite...

Fira, likewise. I'm caught with quite a few at a higher average price that I would like. I've been averaging down but still well underwater. Bit nervous of buying anymore as it is now 50% of my portfolio.
Just hope the results are well received on 20th.

No market direction - too many macro economic issues in play.....

Holding up well considering...

Guys,
I've been doing a bit research on Glenda's 2019 production forecasts verses their 2018 actual production. It is quite encouraging. I have used mid forecast points as they publish a range.
Copper is forecast to be up 5.9%, Coal up 12.4%, Cobalt up 25%, Lead up 26%, Zinc up 12%, Nickel up 11%, Oil up 35%.
If they hit these mid range forecasts this year, then this is a serious increase.
Of course, the price of each is essential and we know some base prices have weakened over the last year.
But the big 2 earners are Copper and Coal. Copper price is currently around 6200 whereas the average price for Glen in 2018 was 5950, so 4% more based on current spot. I can't find data for coal.
We all know that oil, silver & gold are trading higher now than during 2018.
All in all I expect decent results in 2 weeks time re 2018 but I expect the financial forecasts to look very healthy.
I expect an increase in the special dividends (with possibly a super special) and an extension of the share buy back programme.
I wish i had more data on FCF forecasts but Glen have made it very clear that it is generating a lot of cash.
We have a lot to look forward to with the GLEN SP over the coming year even if last week was a little disappointing.

LONDON (Reuters) - A former executive at British oil firm Petrofac has pleaded guilty to eleven counts of bribery as part of an ongoing Serious Fraud Office investigation into the company and its subsidiaries, prosecutors said on Thursday.

Ken, very strange. I've traded PFC a lot in the past but no holding at present. Something is known but not in the public domain. Perhaps something regarding the SFO investigation?

Ken,

I find the same with HL. I spreadsheet everything and just ignore the 'gain/loss' on HL as I know my 'cost' from my own workings. Other than that, I really like HL as you can do multiple deals really quickly.

Despite my cautious outlook, the rise is copper is too tempting so I've bought a stack.

Ken, certainly looks like the gentle drop-off has started.

Ken,

I took the approach you are considering far too early and so I missed some of the recent markets gains. But I'm not going to complain for having a cautious nature after the crazy gains of 2018. Like you, I want to keep those gains and not get too greedy.

I think you are correct in saying that those stocks will be fine (in fact they are more likely to rise if the sh*t hits the fan).

No deal brexit, probably bad for markets are not fully written in.
Deal brexit will cause markets to rise (uncertainty gone) but will lift GBP which could lessen the gains of dollar earning stocks.
US deal with China and markets rise on prospect of potential world economic growth.
US fallout with China and tariffs hit on 1 March, markets will take a battering.

Make sense of those variables!

There seems to be an eerie feel to the markets today.
The momentum of the last week has finished and the markets just don't know where to go.
There are so much geo-political and local political events that the direction is uncertain.
Subject to a major breakthrough in brexit negotiations, I see a flat market trending towards negative (being cautious).
The US markets are also pausing after a great Jan and Trump's speech was short of outright positives on China.

All in all, impossible to call.
Good to luck to anyone who can make money the rest of this week.
I don't like sitting on cash but my gut is telling me to be very cautious.
Crystal ball anyone?

I'm still waiting for a couple of consecutive bad FTSE days which will drag Glen down to 295 - 300 but maybe that won't happen. We've had a good run so I keep expecting a fall but it isn't happening. I would love to know what the City expects about brexit. So difficult to call this market.
Almost entirely in cash waiting for a bargain (and bored that I'm not into something)!

JT,

That is different from the previous trend of dropping over the last 30 mins.
Let's see what happens today.
I'm not convinced we will see 307+ again today.
Tom

Ken,
I think Glen is pausing for breath. She hit the high 307s earlier but is settling back. I think a FTSE bad day (we are due one) will haul it back into the high 290s.
That's my view anyhow.
Tom

No problem Ken. I sold out my GLEN & GVC but I'm keeping hold of my FRES for the moment.