Member Info for RedSparrow7

Hi Goldgnome, I hope you are well.

By my calculations, gold is a long-term buy again at £2800 per troy ounce, or thereabouts. Silver and platinum for long-term buys at around the same time frame as gold.

We'll see.

Red XX

Hi Prof,

Obviously, my last post was not my last post! (how many times can someone actually retire?)

I'm glad you got back in. Your selling up below £1 just shows how markets drain the will out of long-term investors. It is a fact, which recent Centamin price action has shown, that most money is made by those who invest just as the price breaks out of that choppy/nothing period. They then catch a massive rise in next-to-no-time. At least I did take the dividends, re-invest them at cheap prices (and added a few more besides), and caught the rally. It took a long time though, but I've made enough to keep me in Tunnock's Teacakes for a bit longer.

I'll give buying in again some serious thought when the time comes. There are lots of positives.

Best wishes

Red

XX

It's been ages since my last post, and I thought I'd write one last post to tell you that I am no longer a Centamin share holder.

Sadly, I've taken this last week's opportunity to sell all my holding. With dividend reinvestment and occasional purchases over the years, I'd accumulated a reasonable holding - far too large to be comfortable with in any share portfolio - and so decided to hand them over to the traders for any remaining morsels from this brilliant run.

I don't know yet whether I will buy Centamin again. If I do go for precious metal miners, I think I'll stick with ones that afford less geopolitical risk. There are a small handful of miners that have done the right thing in the quiet period, and developed good mines that will come on line when the gold price is due to go ballistic again after a pause.

I firmly believe gold is still in a long-term bull market, despite any scary pullbacks we will see - they are inevitable, aren't they? I also firmly believe that equities are the place to be, again despite any scares (however painful). I will just try to choose the right sectors to be in at the right times in line with the economic cycle. I will avoid government debt at all costs. That will not be worth holding for the long term until well into the next decade (if I'm still around).

I will not sell any gold at this point. Rather, I shall buy more when my target price is reached. I was told by a mine owner many years ago that whenever a Labour government comes into office, for Ch**st's sake buy gold. When l look back at gold price charts, I think he was probably right.

Anyway, thanks for all the banter over the years. I haven't read the board for some time but I'm so pleased to see all the wise heads are still posting. If I do buy Centamin again, I'll let you know.

Very best wishes to you all.

Red (Svetlana, the communist economist).

XX

Hmm. I wonder what sort of compensation payout RKh could get if the FIG does an Italy. It's not going to happen.

So true, Mr T, so true.
For what it's worth, the Commercials are very happy to go long at these prices! It's just a matter of time for the turn.
It's another great opportunity.

I can even HEAR Mr T sigh again!

Well, now! Does RedSparrow talk truth or speak with forked tongue?
I've been waiting for that £1440ish gold price for some time and, low and behold, the moment is here. It's £1426 as I scribble.
It's very difficult to predict a bottom to all this, especially with all the currency debasement. Scarily, I read that Martin Armstrong has suggested that gold support stands at $1345. Just who can mine gold at that price and make a profit?
I can see gold spiking down to around $1640, but with a weaker £, that may not take us down much. So a wild guess is to £1400ish. It will probably happen overnight (again).
I feel we are in the zone for at least a good run up here for stocks, commodities and PMs. Perhaps after the next FOMC meeting.
The markets, including PM's are having pull-backs that are corrective in nature (I can here Mr T sigh), and I've got a buying list ready. I must be patient; I must be patient; I must be patient.
There's still no hope on the western political scene. The WEF reigns supreme.
Good luck all - beware the tiger hunters.
X

Hi Mr T
Yes, I'm afraid it's all back to normal for me now that Covid really isn't the end to all humanity after all. I thought I'd look in on the board to gauge the sentiment towards gold and Centamin.
Most of the precious metal miners have struggled; even Barrick's price couldn't get near the high that it achieved in August 2020 during gold's more recent rise. My prediction of $2000 for gold for last Christmas was a couple of months' out! Sorry.
I'm more sanguine on Centamin than many of the writers on the board appear to be, although I share the frustration. It's been good for the traders, though. I think we may have a bounce soon - people will buy in for the dividend - but then a pullback. After that, I believe the agony for those who bought in at the highs may be over. I'm expecting a very strong uptrend in the gold price that should push the miners up fast - eventually. We may get to £1440ish for gold first, though.

I know you hate TA, but I noticed that platinum is completing its seventh downswing from its Feb 2021 high! I mentioned 7 swings down when gold bottomed around the $1670 mark way back (you'd have to look back in Arfur_Uggins posts around Feb 2021). So, platinum appears to be just over a year behind gold. The $US is so very high and the Euro so low that I feel it's getting the traders on the wrong side. We'll see. It's just such a tragedy that lives are being lost because of economic and political failures. Again.

I'm glad the birds are still being well fed in your garden. The cherry trees have been netted in my garden this year, much to the annoyance of the blackbirds. I suspect they'll find a way through, though.

Let's hope we are richer and wiser come Autumn.

Take care.

On the other hand, gold was £1270 per oz a year ago. Now it's £1500 ish and has come off an even higher level throughout the year. It's high against the Euro and Yen as well.
You'll be pleased you hold gold when the monetary reset comes - probably the salt too. Just take the dips in the gold and Centamin price as a gift. Patience is the game.

I bought shares in two different companies yesterday and both transactions appeared as 'sells' on LSE.
The buy/sell indicator doesn't seem that reliable.

I read that as being $37 million spent on exploration but it doesn't say anything about what the reserves of that asset are. What have we got to physically sell?
I don't have a twitter account, but when a company starts getting shirty with someone who has repeatedly asked a perfectly reasonable question, I start thinking there may be something sinister going on - although I'm not suggesting there is. The only way a company can redeem itself from the situation is to be honest and answer the question. Otherwise, it will continue to be held in a dim light.

And this git told us our gas bills would be reduced if we voted for Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1218703/boris-promises-cheaper-household-gas-bills-if-brits-back-brexit/

A very good question, astronut.
'The longer the base, the higher in space.' Certain markets can do nothing for years. No one is interested in them. 'You've bought what? You muppet!'Then, they begin to behave like Uranium is now. The gold market is another classic case and absolutely full of emotion, like no other.
'The higher something climbs, the further it will eventually fall. And vice versa.' The further the gold miners fall, the longer and steeper will be their climb. The catapult effect. Opposite is the case for tech stocks when it bursts.
'To be all in, is to be boxed in.' Even if you think an investment is a 100% certainty, do not throw the kitchen sink at it. People lie!
'For long-term investing, drip feed your money into an investment that has become cheap.' Obviously, find out why it is cheap!
'Recognize the value of compounding in your investment.' Re-investing dividends and having small additions when prices are low will build up your wealth, on average. This is what has made most company share schemes so good over the last 40 years. Remember, though, that nothing lasts forever.
'Everyone makes lots of money in the stock market.' I think I'm correct in saying that 95% of traders lose money overall.
'Bull markets do everything in their power to kick you off.' Don't they, just.
'If in trouble, if in doubt, get the Tunnocks' teacakes out.' I've been there before.
And finally: Badgers love plums, and Mr Badger and friends have done very well from me this year. Their favourite variety is Czar, by a unanimous vote. They'll be getting windfall apples next.

Hi GoldGnome,
I believe there are a few investment accounts, run by investment managers, that are owned by people who have died. These accounts don't get discovered by the probate process and just keep running. It's probably only when the umpteenth yearly account perfomance letter gets sent to the last address given, that the new occupants at that address decide to inform the financial institution that that person doesn't live there any more. I think it's known as inertia. Anyway, when the account is reviewed, it is often found to have done very well because it has been left alone - no short termism. It's then just a case of tracking down the beneficiaries of the will. I bet the solicitors love that.
Will history repeat? I didn't make myself very clear there. Some people think that the government may ban people from holding solid gold over a certain value, or number of ounces ,or number of coins as they did in WW2. You were supposed to hand your sovereigns over to the bank and get notes back; if you were really patriotic, you'd then buy war bonds. If you did all that, you'd have been completely stung. Clearly, someone didn't trust the government and hid their coins in the old Joanna.
Will we be forced to hide our gold again? Will governments ban holding physical gold? Some people believe so. I don't know. The only reason I can think of why gold would be banned is because the majority of people want to get rid of fiat money asap. Should I be careful what I wish for?
It would seem that not trusting the authorities is a long-time, well-established practice for many of us. I wonder why?

That's very good, MajorDisaster, and very quick. You get a tick.
I'm not sure that the owners of the piano who donated it to the school would see the funny side, although they appeared to be very philosophical about it.
I doubt if I could cope with knowing that all those coins were within my grasp for so many years and I'd just given them away. Crikey, wouldn't finding all those sovereigns under my piano keyboard have been handy when I was younger.
I love the way the 'Crown' claimed them. Actually, no I don't.

I am beginning to think that the old $1200 has been replaced by the new $1800 - the accumulation level for the next big leg up for the gold price. Hopefully it will not take so long for the big buyers to load up this time. I was very encouraged to see that huge contract dump a few weeks ago was quickly covered and we've got back to 'the range'. A little upside to the gold price on the dollar's fall this last couple of weeks has been OK - I wish it had been more; perhaps there is more to come. It's a bit of a grind.
I am reminded of that report from Fidelity Investments, which I've never read, about how the dead outperform the living when it comes to investing. The dead just can't keep tinkering with their portfolios. It's a bit extreme, dying to become a good investor, but I keep telling myself the long haul is best for me.
It's an old story, but the following link shows that gold for a long-term hold isn't a bad thing; you just need to stay alive.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-39655769
A teacher friend of mine asked her pupils (about 10 year olds) to write a story about why the coins were put in the piano in the first place. Almost all the kids wrote something about the parents splitting up, and one of the parents was hiding their wealth from the other because of the divorce settlement.
How sad!
In reality, I think the piano coins were hidden because of WW2. The government restricted gold ownership to 3 sovereigns (I think) and that law was not rescinded until 1968 (I think). Will history repeat?
Take care.

Thanks, Tony. Yes, Yellen raised interest rates back then and gold went up. I knew something interesting happened in Dec 2015.
What interests me at the moment is that the Commercials are very short on the dollar.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-august-20-2021
They are also happy to take longs on silver and platinum, but are very short gold.
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
The last time they were so short on the dollar was when gold bottomed at $1670s earlier this year and then the dollar dropped and gold rose to $1920s.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-february-19-2021
We could see a temporary top for the DXY at around 94 - 94.5 before a turn down and rise in metals and commodities. Dollar to 87? Gold to double top $2075?
I'm waiting to buy some very cheap companies IF we get the turn - I could even get some more Centamin but probably wont.
Maybe Jackson Hole will be the trigger. We'll see. I shall be looking in the MSM for a sign - dollar to the moon; gold down the pan. The trouble is, it ain't free markets any more.
All this excitment would have to happen when I'm at my most busy!
Take care.

The Jackson Hole meeting is taking place next week - 26th - 28th. Could this be the spur for precious metals to resume their climb? When Bernanke started 'tapering' in Dec 2015, that was the low for gold and rose until Aug last year - completely the opposite to what everyone thought! Same again, please.

Those that can, do; those that can't, teach.
I suppose the best that can be said for people on this board is that none of us charges for our wonderful posts and advice. Some of the gurus charge an awful lot and don't get it right all that often. I read somewhere, a few years ago, that the best financial analyst got his predictions correct about 60% of the time. Even Martin Armstrong thought gold was going to $900 an ounce back in 2015 and told everyone they were idiots for suggesting the bottom was in. I think his AI program needs a bit of tweaking - if memory serves me correctly, he got it right about 50% of the time.
I'm looking forward to another Centamin dividend soon. I hope I've got that prediction right.

Yes, an even quicker reply is that the USA and UK haven't got a clue what they're doing.
I think China is very happy to mine gold at $1800, though.