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Just how reliable a measure of inflation is the current CPI method, or RPI for that matter? Well, if you include classic cars, possibly not a very accurate measure at all according to the following:
Here is a very nice Triumph TR7 in 'Kermit' green that sold at auction in early May this year for £8640.
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/results/saturday-1st-sunday-2nd-may/1981-triumph-tr7-convertible/
If only you had been quicker, because just a few days later, the same car could be bought off eBay.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/164920747215?hash=item26660ae4cf:g:Tk0AAOSwoKBglpIU
It's doubtful the seller will get the £12995 asking price, but if he should, I make that a 50% increase in less than a week.
Do I live in Britain or Zimbabwe?
I have seen many examples of the above over the last year or so. My poor old share and gold portfolio lost well over 10% in the last week. Would I swap that for a TR7? Not in that colour - in blue.....maybe. Then again, maybe not.
Purdey, from the New Avengers had a yellow TR7, but it kept breaking down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wnabXEDtAg
So, you'd be better off with Mrs Peel's Lotus Elan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P41clz5_Rp0
However, whichever you choose, make sure it has a large glove compartment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UviwWIcOFQ8
Snap!
It's sounds more appealing than my religious upbringing, Mr B.
Hi Mr Tibbles
I see you are in fine form this Saturday.
I read recently that Arlene Foster had won about £110000 in a libel case. Someone on Twitter had accused her of having extra-marital affairs and generally being immoral. She is a woman of very deep faith and strongly family orientated. Those kinds of accusations must be very deeply wounding to such a person. So, well done Arlene.
I have a friend who stood for the Liberal Democrats in a General Election some years ago. The Conservative candidate put a rumour around about her having an affair with a married man, she was single at the time, and generally slurred her name. She confronted the Conservative candidate, and he just said that she should expect politics to be a dirty game. It's just another reason why decent people avoid becoming poiticians. It's a shame because we end up with the dregs of society in power.
I was wondering how much influence the REPO problems recently in the US had on the FOMC statement last Wednesday? Lot's, I suspect.
It's worth remembering that gold's cyclical bear market ended in December 2015, right when Ben Bernanke stepped down as Fed Chairman, and Janet Yellen took over. His 'gift' was to start tapering bond issuance, thus tightening monetary policy. Real interest rates were very low then, but gold began to climb, even as monetary policy got tighter and nominal rates (and real rates) rose. So, rising rates are not bad for gold at all times.
I noted that Donald Trump recently stated that the US dollar needs to be strong to ensure the US keeps its place as the largest economy in the world. It's a far cry from his presidential days when he wanted nothing more than a weaker dollar.
This week's market action has provided 'friends' the opportunity to begin to exit the wrong side. Again.
All markets have been affected by that FOMC meeting, but I keep in mind that gold had a directional change last August and another directional change in March this year. I don't think this pullback in the gold price marks a new direction down. I look at the price in sterling; a three waves decline should only give us a maximum Fib 78% around £1220ish per ounce. We are on a 50% decline from our recent peak, so if I'm correct, I hope we get a bounce soon before the final move down. Once the pullback is finished, I hope we'll be racing again. The good thing is that the banks will be short covering, which will keep the price from falling too much. I ask myself the question: should I sell my physical gold now and buy it back cheaper in the future? The answer is no!
For Centamin, it hasn't gone down that much with the fall in gold price (Yamana Gold - oh dear!). The crazy gang's forecast the other week did far more damage. Weaker sterling also helps the Centamin price. We've got used to a penny up and penny down share price movements over the last few month. Centamin is already cheap with a good dividend. It's too late to panic now. Again, it's a good long-term hold. I'm sticking with it.
It's a very dull morning at the moment. It's not open top car weather; more like get the Turtle Wax out and give the paintwork a good polish.
Indeed, Mr Tibbles, you are thinking along the same lines as Blackrock who are shifting out of government bonds into real estate. It's just another example of the move from public to private assets. Even our Boris is beginning to get a taste of the people's lack of confidence in government. We're dosed to the eyeballs with experimental vaccine and now we want our freedom back! It's only the start of things. The 'private bubble' won't even burst until the early part of the next decade.
There's nothing like a bit of 'shock and awe', or should that be 'Blitzkreig?', to frighten the poor underlings. I suspect the shorters are scrambling out of positions while the rest of us are too stunned to even think straight. However, I'm glad to see one poster has suddenly become 'brave' overnight.
Life's a bowl of cherries - if you're a blackbird!
We have about another 8 years of the commodity bull market. All metals took a smash today, as the US dollar rose. These things happen and all bull markets try their hardest to throw you off. You just have to ride the ups and downs. The best thing to do is get in your E-types and have a nice drive in the sun.
A slightly disappointing 106p finish, but at least I've started to buy in. I shall add more if the price is right, but the gold selling is beginning to dry up for the moment.
Mr Tibbles
Thanks for the car information. We'll have plenty to discuss on the weekend. When I bought my first car, I took it back to the dealer and threw the keys at him! No, I'm not even a redhead (apologies to redheads if you're reading). I'll explain later, but it was a very rare outburst from a normally placid self.
I think traders are looking for between 102 to 104p. I can add more, but there are now loads of gaps above and the price I've paid is OK by me. It's long term and I'm hoping for gold above $2000 by year end. The US doesn't want a strong dollar with all it's debt, or rising interest rates, but it does want to erode the value of that debt. I wouldn't want Jerome Powell's job.
Let's see how it all plays out.
In. Just under 107.4p :)
Inflation is the 'tax of choice' for Western authorities. They've been trying to create inflation since the credit crunch; why would they try to stop it rising now? China, on the other hand, doesn't want inflation - it's bad for its exports if material input prices rise. Hence, the release to market of copper stockpiles to lower the price. So that's another big difference between East and West.
As ever, I shall buy Centamin and gold at a price I'm happy with. I can't do better than that.
Hi Goldgnome
My comment about hating all things economist was tongue-in-cheek. It's very difficult to convey a sense of humour when writing on this board. I suppose you have to write LOL after everything you mean to not be taken seriously.
You write what you want; it doesn't offend me. I agree that most economics is useless. It's just another branch of trying to control human nature just like politics. We end up getting people who tell us what to do and running our lives, when they can't even sort their own lives and heads out (Boris Johnson). The one thing we must all do is not let them get into our heads. Know your enemy.
Kind regards
Aoife
Hi Mr Tibbles
I was referring to Mr Bond and Cowichan about being gentlemen in the way they argued and gave each other a slice of tongue pie, but quickly realized they wanted the same result (as we all do) and agreed to reamain friends. That's not to say Mr Goldgnome isn't also a gentleman despite his hatred of all things economist!
Yes, birdsong woke me up just after 4am this morning. I think the rooks and my mother are related - they nag their offspring just as she used to me - get up, get dressed, do your hair, eat your toast, put your shoes on blah de blah. No wonder I've got bags under my eyes.
Yes, I think predicting share prices by charts is difficult. You can get some kind of pattern in broader markets. The link below shows the gold price over the last 5 years in sterling. Since the high, we've had a perfect ABC correction and are in a little 'correction' from the first leg up after that - I reckon £1300 ish and then we go up. The FOMC meeting has given the shorts a chance to cover and I say Centamin fills the gap at 107.4 and then we're up. I put in a buy order today for 107.4 but didn't get hit.
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/5-year-gold-price-chart/
Basel 3 is important to Germany, Italy and France because they own significant amounts of gold. Britain and American are Keynesians and don't see gold as important. Just because the dollar goes up doesn't necessarily mean gold will fall. In fact, we'll know when the game is finally up when gold and the dollar rise together. With all the debt in the world, which is primarily dollar denominated, a strong dollar will cause a deflationary depression 1930s style and some.
Big money can only really go into bonds or equities. My mate Martin says money is fleeing bonds and going into housing.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-alternative-to-bonds/
Here is a nice car for Mr Bond.
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-26th-sunday-27th-june/1970-jaguar-e-type-42-series-ii-coupe/
Here is a nice car for you.
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-26th-sunday-27th-june/1975-jensen-interceptor-iii-auto/
This is for me.
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-26th-sunday-27th-june/raleigh-chopper-mk2-purple/
Oops, wrong link. This is for me.
https://angliacarauctions.co.uk/classic/sat-26th-sunday-27th-june/1967-sunbeam-alpine-series-v/
We just need Centamin at £2.50.
Mr Tibbles you are a mine of unformation. I feel a Sunday off topic in the making.
Goodness, there are so many posts today I can't take them all in.
Macron reminds me of that Monty Python sketch where two people slap each other with salmon. I was so surprized when I worked in France how irreverent the French are towards politicians. No wonder they used to chop their heads off!
I missed all the market action today and will tomorrow. I mentioned copper a week or two ago. The Chinese were trying to control its price. Same for other markets. I wish the US wasn't following in the same vein. It's the future but it will fail. Best to stick to what they're best at. If Macron had said trade freely with Africa instead of selling gold and handing them the money, that is the right way - African farmers would want that.
Mr B and Cowichan = gentlemen. i wish the world had your wisdom.
Sorry for the crappy post but out of time.
Hi RazorsEdge
It's nice when plans and hard work come to fruition.
FOMC meeting this week. Could this be the moment?
Yesterday, while I was driving near my home, seven E-Type Jags in a row drove in the oppsite direction, with a Land Rover pulling a trailer that had another classic/vintage car on it. I have never seen that many E-Types on the road at one time. They must have been going to a show. How much money had just past me at that moment?
Hmm. A kilogram or two of gold or an E-Type? I know which would be more fun.
A very busy today for me too, but it's sunny.
Yes, Mr Tibbles, it's going to take a lot more than pot banging to save the NHS. The government has run out of other people's money, and the retirement age has been increased, dentistry is nearly all private (although I do have an NHS dentist but treatment is limited) and NI contributions are still required.
Which way with gold and Centamin this week? I feel the time is near.
The sun's o'ercast with blood: fair day, adieu!
Which is the side that I must go withal?
I am with both: each army hath a hand;
And in their rage, I having hold of both,
They whirl asunder and dismember me.
King John
William Shakespeare
(A play, not poem, but my Monday contribution.)
No, Mr B, she doesn't do flippant or funny. I learnt that many years ago. She's more of the 'put down' type. We get on OK, though; I just have to 'adjust' and button it in her company - don't mention certain topics. Such is life.
Hi Mr Tibbles
I'm not sure how you managed to go from Calvinistic Puritanism, Oliver Cromwell style, to inadequate funding for the NHS, but it was ingenious, nonetheless.
Very early last January, my mother-in-law had a cataract operation on one eye, which was done privately. The waiting list on the NHS was horrendous, but she is in her late 80s so she couldn't wait that long. She did have the same operation on her other eye on the NHS a few years ago. The NHS hospitals were so geared up for the Covid pandemic, I don't think they could cope with too much else.
Anyway, despite her operation having been done on the 4th January, during lockdown, the doctors said she ought not to be on her own for a couple of days. So, I collected her from the hospital and she stayed with me. One evening she was looking at the TV listings on screen and said to me, 'Whatever next? There's a programme here called "AR*E Fashion Week".' I looked, but it read 'ARISE Fashion Week'. To this day, I don't know if she thought it was fashion for a particular part of the anatomy or clothing for stupid people. I began to wonder if the operation had been a success.
Sorry for being off topic, but it's Sunday.
Cowichan
I certainly do support your Twitter post. However, I don't have a Twitter account, neither Facebook nor any other social media accounts. I think you would agree that that is a wise move since I am bound to end up serving a few years in Chokey if I were let loose on Twitter.