The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-flies-high-but-further-out-forecasts-are-grim/
Copper was once again approaching the pivotal $10,000 a tonne level on Tuesday, jumping to over $4.50 a pound, or $9,940 a tonne in New York amid über bullish sentiment and renewed supply worries in the world’s top producing region.
The rally in copper, which has more than doubled in price from its covid-lows, has been fuelled by a widely-held belief that demand for the bellwether metal will receive a massive boost, not just from post-pandemic economic stimulus, but also from a worldwide push for decarbonisation.
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Everything to do with the green energy transition requires more copper – notably the electrification of the global vehicle fleet and massive investment electrical grids, renewable energy infrastructure and storage.
While almost all agree copper’s longer term future is bright, there is much less consensus on how much the price of the metal will shine in the next few years.
Copper price eyes record, but further out forecasts are grim
A monthly poll conducted by FocusEconomics shows wide disparities in forecast prices by the investment banks, brokers, economists and governments in the survey compiled April 13–18.
The lowest forecast among the more than two dozen participants for the average price in the fourth quarter this year is by BMO Capital Markets, which predicts copper to retreat to the $7,000 a tonne level.
Click here for interactive copper price chart
Other notable bears are JP Morgan, Societe Generale, BBVA and Capital Economics which also see the price in the $7,000s with further declines in 2022.
That’s a big gap to the most bullish forecaster – Goldman Sachs sees prices averaging $10,620 a tonne in Q4. Goldman, the number one proponent of the existence of a supercycle in commodities, sees more gain in 2022, predicting prices to reach $12,250 by the end of next year.
The only other participant expecting the copper price to reach five digits is Singapore’s United Overseas Bank. Only ABN Amro, Citi and ANZ see copper above $9,000 in Q4, but apart from ABN, also see a retreat back below that level a year later.
The consensus forecast for the Q4 average is $8,340, sliding to $8,130 in Q4 2022.
FocusEconomics notes that in its April survey more than half of panelists adjusted predictions upward (and four became less bullish) from the forecasts compiled in March.
While the underlying copper market is moving fast at the moment, unless more market analysts come around to the idea of a supercycle in coming months, Goldman looks set to continue to be a lone voice.
1invest - hope your very wrong with that one.. lol , hope you mean £1.00
My hopes were 1p December 2021 3p December 2025
With consolidation thats now £1.00 December 2021 and £3.00 December 2025
Dont do ramping / de-ramping just my expectations from research but based on copper a lot lower than it is at the moment.
Anything more which of course we all hope for is a hugh bonus, just want rise to be a bit slower that recently though... slow and steady.
BUT wtfdik dyor - but im excited as we have experts in mining here giving us fantastic info.
Willow - goes over most investors heads on this board, both on here and rmm there are experts in these areas keeping all calm, i think you will find all rampers and depamers are soon dealt with, world would be a dull place without the odd banter, if you want to see endless predictions get over to the eua board.. i hold and just cant be bothered with the 20 a second sale price predictions.. if anything happend over their the sp will reflect it.
like leaving the worst firework in the box until the end.
Ex metro - woops
rmm , eua, boil, kod,kzg,oex
Pedro - think most on here know what weve got into we just aren't a board of rampers.
I invested here with aim of 1p December 2021, 3p 2025 AND because i love the story of Rambler.
Anything more bonus.
JoeKenny - Please explain your reasoning for this warning.
A goose, if you want to work it out very quickly, at our target production of 1350tpd@2% Cu with 95% Mill recovery, we will produce 25.5t of copper per day, call its 2200lb to the tonne its 25.5 x 5 x 2200 = $280,550 per day, the mine produces 355 days per year so that's $100 million per year revenue or $60 million profit (our current market cap)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ai7PabOGy8
www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0rLzJ75qoU
Rambler sorry...
Deeeer Rambler that should read.....
Morning all hope your well. Ive recently added Bambler to my portfolio (rmm)
I missed the start of the increadble rise of Eurasia but Bambler may be of interest to you imo.
Sorry if not allowed to post this type of thing but this board has a lovely feel to it and just trying to share.
Have a wonderful day on and my guestimate of sale price is £2.55 per share.
Agree Fig Tree, we dont need the rampers they can stay on Boil, im in this for 1p December, 3p 2025.
But having worked it out its up over 20% this week - fantastic
Love watching this www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh2iifj9AQE
I just love the Rambler Story, sorry for the old share holders of course - been there myself with Metro Bank, but due to circumstances beyond our control here we are, Rambler being reborn. I got into Rambler hoping for 1p by Christmas and 3p+ around 2025 lets see how this goes.. Holding (11million)
With all this news any sp predictions for next week?
Good spot Sir.
Hope my .12 purchase will look like a bargain this time next week.
5 million at .08
5 million at .12
Blast!
Should be some good press coverage over the weekend too..