Member Info for redeyemines

It's not very often that I feel any pity for multi millionaires, but I'm beginning to sympathies with how things have worked out for Oisin Fanning.
-Having worked flat out, since taking the helm, he has steered SLE through many a storm, and kept us afloat, when it looked certain we were about to sink.
-The rabbits he has pulled out of his hat, over the last few years, have transformed us into a successful cash cow, and we the shareholders are about to start reaping the benefits.
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-Sadly that is not now the case for Oisin Fanning.
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-Having struggled for seven months to complete his share purchase, he now sees the SP rising strongly, and almost certainly killing his original deal---(he is now about £10 mill out from where he started).
-Hopefully he can put together another deal and gain something of a stake, but I doubt he can get the sort of % he originally hoped for,----- and that's assuming Tosca will still sell.
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-With him as a major shareholder, ---financed by huge debt,-- the incentive was always there to pay out massive dividend, ---and for that reason alone, I hope that things work out for him and he can complete a new share purchase deal.

Good find Al, things moving forward at a pace, and as you say, if the finance is sorted, that adds to our book value of Barry.

With our short term finance coming to its annual end, we need to arrange a new line of credit.
.. We have done this in the past with loans from POLO which were backed by the option of converting the equity into shares @11p
..Now with the sp at 9p, we could not issue that conversion option as the price would have been below the nominal (10p) value, so a way had to be. found to lower that nominal value.
.. We could have had a share split, but that would have increase the number of shares in issue, by maybe up to 10 times.
.. Now by splitting the shares into the two new classes we still only have the same number of Ord shares in issues, but they now have a nominal value of just 1p.
Once we cancelled the the deb shares, we will be left with only the Ord shares in issue, and will be free to, maybe, arrange another convertible backed loan from POLO, without having to vastly increase the number of shares in issue, so our financing issues could soon be sorted for another period.
So nothing has really changed for us sh, and another hurdle is now easier to cross..
...... Should be a positive.

Put them in your isa, and keep the tax man at bay

Goods morning Horse, and thanks for your figs and guestimate of SP., but I feel you (and a lot of us) are looking at this project from the wrong angle.
-With the way we are setting up this JV , the end result will all be about the final price per unit of Electricity produced, and not about constituent parts, --like the price of the coal.
-Three main players---the owner of the coal---the miner of the coal---and the generator of the power---will form the core of the new consortium, and they will divide all the income generated by the sale of the Electricity, between them.
-It may not be as simple as 3 x 33%, because each participant will contribute a larger or smaller share of the project, depending on various market forces at the time of signing the final agreements.
-GCM with it's rights to the coal, has seen the value of it's asset increase by over 70% since Sept 2020, and will be looking to reflect that in the final split.
-The Miner has fixed costs, and not a lot of prospects for arguing a case for more than 33%, . It is much more likely to give ground to the other two players.
-The power producer (PC), will be responsible for producing the final product, and negotiating the price with the GOB. That will generate all the income for the whole group. As such, they may feel that they are holding the purse strings, and will probably explain why they feel they should be getting a larger share (this is what they are trying to do now).
-Before things are signed, it is all to play for, and a rushed decision now, could permanently undermine, or overvalue, any of the partners,--- as once it is signed, the costs any value of the parts are locked in, no matter what the various markets do afterwards.
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-So going back quickly to your figs, which gave GCM a SP of £8.9 (based on the value of its coal). You assumed PC would take a massive chunk and leave us with about £3 a share,---
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-------but what about the revenue from the Electricity ??
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-That is what it is all about---the final product,-- that will be split between all the partners.
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-So what will it be worth to GCM ?---------could be the whole of that £8.9, or more--or less------------but there is far more here than just the value of the coal.

All sounds good to me, and although maybe nothing new, it does seem that things are very much on track still.
-Far from going Private, things look positive, as we await the new Nomad.
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-Have we now seen the bottom of the SP ??

Bluestorm, -----your ongoing spat with Beeshoney has got nothing to do with me, except that I too am a shareholder (for over ten years now).
-I bought into this share when they spiked at £3.00, and I still hold a substantial amount.
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-At the time of my original purchase there were many stories and estimates doing the rounds, and I remember all the huge figs of £9--£20 a share being banded about,--but this was not just by one poster.
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-There were many people that saw GCM as a great play, with prospect that would make most peoples eyes water-------in fact i must have posted many a bullish comment myself along with dozens of other posters.
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-Sadly now, most of those posters have either sold up and disappeared, or are just keeping a low profile-----------myself included--------------but it does not mean that i regret any of the postings or stories that were around at the time--------as always, it was down to us, as individuals, to try and predict future events, and how the saga would unfold.
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-Now, in hindsight, we can all see, that so far, things have not gone as we all had hoped, and it may or may not all end in tears.--------------------but certainly those early posts were made in the heat of battle and a lot of water has flowed under bridges since then.
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-Bees (and now myself) are some of the few original posters to still be speaking on these BB's, and if you are going to aim criticisms at Bees for getting his predictions wrong, then you have to aim those same criticisms at all the other posters that were so bullish all those years ago, --and not just single out one poster, for a sustained campaign of hatred-----just because he was wrong.
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-Some of your posts have been beyond personnel, almost to the point of becoming disturbing, as you have become ever more vitriolic against just one poster, who has remained, almost dignified throughout.
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-You know his personnel situation, and I sure your campaign is not helping his situation, so I would like to offer you an alternative.
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-By all means go back over my past bullish posts (and any other poster you can find), and aim your comments at me and others--------but it is certainly not aa BEES fault, and i feel you have said more than enough to him already.
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-If you are losing money------join the club.

It's worth taking a look at our potential over the next couple of years.----I say over the next couple of years to stop some posters jumping in and stating that ,this that and the other aren't ready or are later than anticipated.
-We have
-OML 18
-ELI
-OZA
-and Barry, to look forward to, all on top of our Loan and Interest repayments.
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-In 2021 we are due about $100 mill ( $50 mill for a 10p Div ) from our L & I , so really we need not talk about that year, (even though we may well see additional payments coming from our other four future main income streams)---2021 is well taken care of.----so onto 22.
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-I am going to assume we will not receive any Divi from Eroton in 21, as they need to hold on to their cash for the L & I repayments------if I'm wrong and we do get a Divi, then that is a bonus, but I'm assuming Divis won't come until 22.
-There has been lots of talk over the last years as to what our 10% is really worth----I make it about $18 mill a year--------so that is what I'm putting in for 22.
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-ELI --we can work out assuming 50/- BOPD @ 50 cents a barrel---gives us about $9.25 mill a year, ---and yes we may well see cash flowing in 21---as I said --a bonus on our L& I payments, but I won't go counting those chickens just yet, ---lets get it up and running first.
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-OZA--is a great opportunity, and could get us $12 mill a year rising to maybe $20 mill if we go for the full 30%-----------------again I'm putting that $12 mill in for 22 (interest on the loans not being paid for a year) ,but we may well get some early cash in 21---another bonus
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-Barry---is very open ended at this stage, and they could have many hurdles to jump before they can start to return cash to us for our 4.5% NPI----but come 22, we could be in line for about $18 mill a year---not bad.
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-So there we have it---2021 should see us with a min of $100 mill--(maybe heading for $120 mill)
-and as we go into 2022 and beyond, we should have sustainable incomes totally maybe over $60 mill a year---giving us $30 mill for Divis (6p)
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-But--as is always the case with SLE, there could be more----OF is still sitting there with $20-30 mill burning a hole in his pocket---so maybe 2020 hasn't finished surprising us yet.

I got some stick the other day from a friend of mine.--He told me stop going on about the Coal Price as it was irrelevant at this stage,--- and in some respects I suppose he was right.
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-But that doesn't alter the fact that the price of coal keeps going up, making it almost impossible for the GOB to plan on importing.
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-It is now 60% up from it's Sept lows.

Now a bit of the dust has settled and the shrieking has died down a bit, it's time to take a good look at what has happened and been said.
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----The Nomad has resigned for any number of reasons, but we don't (and probably never will) know the exact reason.---------Contracts get terminated and disagreements happen all the time in business, sometimes over something trivial, sometimes over something major, this could be either--- or something in between---we just don't know.
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-What we do know, is what the company are telling us.
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-That they are in discussions with another Nomad, talks are progressing, and that Nomad is doing his Due Diligence.
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-If they succeed in signing up a replacement, then that would have put as back where we were on Thurs---steady as she goes---and us hoping that Power Chins are still in the game, and waiting to hear if they will be joining the JV.
-But
--We have now heard that Power China are very much "still in the game", and will be for at least the next six months, ---and far from losing interest, they are pushing for an ever larger slice of the pie-------------there's confidence for you.
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-Without the Nomad RNS, we would be much higher on the Power China continued interest, and if the company are correct, this Nomad problem will be sorted very shortly, and then things will look entirely different.
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-AND--on top of all this--(as i keep saying)--the coal price continues to run ever higher, and is now over 50% higher than it's Sept lows.
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-Taking it all into account, GCM look good value at these levels

While we are all distracted worrying about our nomad-------the coal price keeps marching upwards.
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-It is now 50% up from it's Sept lows.
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-How can the GOB possible plan to import coal for any project, when the price is racing away.---Any financial budgeting will mean nothing by the time the projects get near completion.
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-Own coal, solely used in mine mouth power plants, to guarantee a fixed unit price electricity supply, makes so much sense, it will not be overlooked.
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--Sort the profit ratios out and present to the GOB, and it will be accepted.

-So Mr Hochschild will not reduce his holding below the point were he cannot nominate up to two new Directors.
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---What is that level.?
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-I ask this because it does look that he may well come back to sell some more after the 90 Day period has ended.----I would have liked to see him state "no further sales for 12 months"-----but "90 days" does seem to indicate his intentions------------or am i just being cynical ?

---"Mr Hochschild will continue to serve as Chairman of the Company and, pursuant to the relationship agreement between the Company and the Seller, the Seller will retain the right to nominate up to two directors to the Company's Board. Mr Hochschild confirms he has no intention to reduce his shareholding to a level where these entitlements would lapse. In line with that commitment, and as part of the Placing, the Seller has agreed that it will not, for the period ending on the later of (i) 90 days after completion of the Placing; and (ii) the date of publication of the audited accounts of the Company for the financial year ending 31 December 2020, offer, sell or otherwise transfer any shares from its remaining shareholding in the Company, subject to customary exceptions."

Coal continuing it's bull run--------now up 40% since Sept lows---------
--------------that should be the final nail in the coffin for any ideas of imported coal, and should also make our project extremely profitable for everybody, esp the GOB.

Just for interest, --in case you're not watching--- Coal has bounced 30% from it's low levels in Sept

12 billion shares in issue--------------12,000,000,000-----------------DYOR

I would rather doubt that, at this stage.
-We have already had "half of the spare cash", and i don't think the plan is to give half, and then half of what's left again (we could carry that on forever.
-Judging by the way we have been hunting out opportunities, I think it is much more likely that we could see another deal, which will soak up our idol cash.
-It has been stated that when we receive the last of the loan note and interest cash, that over 50% of that will be heading back to SH via a dividend-------------so I think that is our timeline.

Great story Pappi.----sounds like many minister are behind using own coal, but all agree that underground mining will not fulfill the needs.
-Many deposits are too deep or have other problems, or haven't even been studied, and the only one that is currently producing (Barra), is only producing a pittance.
-Shipping coal around is impractical, so they are all in favor of building Mine Mouth Power Stations.
-If Underground mining is not the answer, then it has to be Open Pit, and that means Phulbari.
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-Sounds like they are just waiting to see our proposal.
-Strong Buy

NM

no probs Al----is this the final, final, final step ---lol-----did you get your refund in GB Sterling or in Euros ??

Thanks G1lo--- that's the address I was after.