Member Info for Red0rb

Yep, I very much read as a solid trading update - customer & revenue growth numbers all going in the right direction, the high customer satisfaction scores being maintained, still on course for breakeven. Would welcome lor_9's reasoned analysis to back up his/her negativity.

New insurance company announced today is another US top 20, no small fry.

Myteethitch - I think the 900M figure is China's trade excess to the whole world and the 300M or so figure is the US trade deficit to China, these are different numbers with very different meanings.

Though Trump thinks he rules the world, that doesn't mean he should port the whole world figures onto the US balance sheet.

Wish I had more to put in!

To add to my initial thoughts - Think 3b. might be the biggest impactor.

Kitchen work surfaces and bathroom units will be made in Asia, wood for flooring from Canada, cost of workmanship could go up too.

If cost of repair doubles then RoI with Leakbot (prevention) also doubles. Ondo could charge double (RoI to insurer would still be, say, 1.8x).

Not good times all round, hope people are coping alright.

I had a few thoughts on how the current situation could actually work in Ondo's favour, and would welcome others' opinions:

1. Selling in the US, Ondo provides a service offering (£50 or so, per year), which happens to have hardware included (value £30 or so, one-off). If tariffs do apply, likely to only be £3 or so extra (10%) (and only on the year 1 costs). Minimal impact.

2. As discussed months ago, the Leakbot manufacturing partner already does production in the US (as well as UK, EU & Asia), so upstanding US production, if really needed, should be facil.

3. The RoI business case for Leakbot could get even stronger, for both homeowners and insurers. Two drivers here. A) when times are tight homeowners shop around more looking for good deals, Leakbot can help progressive insurers stand out in a crowded market. B) cost of (extensive) repair is gonna skyrocket, like really skyrocket, prevention being better than cure will be even more the case.

If the economy does tank, yes there'll be fewer households overall seeking insurance, but Ondo is still right at the start of market penetration. Don't think addressable market shrinking by 10% matters if you've only penetrated 1% into the remaining 90%.

Am I talking crap? Other potential positives? Key negatives?

Think the 15 might have been a multiplier to take from revenue to company valuation.

Who knows what the multiplier should be? 15 is a fair guess I suppose...

Covea UK is small but, as you say, proves the point.

Wonder if they're feeding info back to the parent company which is a major player - insuring 7.9 million households just across the channel...?

The grade in the 11000 or so produced to date may well be variable as, if I remember rightly, some of the raw feedstock was of a lower quality - good enough to use to experiment and fine-tune the plant but not ideal for when at full production.

If so, stating these lower but unrepresentative grades would just sow unwarranted confusion.

He's managed to put a 10% tariff on Heard and McDonald Islands, with a population of zero, so the lack of trade is clearly no barrier to Trumplogic

Er...can nobody read? ;)

The tweet clearly says what the road's for - it's to support the local community, part of KOD's local development outreach program, spreading the love.

Won't directly affect the mine/mining, but effective soft diplomacy in action.

Oh, whilst I'm here, f off chef

Leaving a healthy 500MW surplus to help power West London.

It makes a lot of sense to pool infrastructure which needs security, as long as it doesn't markedly increase risk.

Airport + SMR + data centre might be good.

SMR + gas storage rig + ammo dump might not be.

Thanks for confirming, Upthemost, Andii & Canowhoopass.

So even at only £50 for the hardware, Ondo will still be profiting (just not as much as at full price).

Healthy for the company to have multiple ways of selling (hardware + service/hardware only, one-off/recurring, direct/via insurer).

They are cheap to produce and distribute.

£50 is roughly the price charged annually to insurer's for the service, which is profitable and also includes the plumber call out as required.

If you buy a Leakbot via this offer is it £50 outright or £50 per annum? Does it include the plumber call out (for free)? If both are 'yeses' then I'm getting one, but I hope/doubt it.

He might be a genuine Flat-Earther, believing you can't just go around the Van Allen radiation belt (like the Apollo astronauts did).

I'm ageing myself here - but I get the impression he thinks wars are fought like in Command & Conquer Red Alert...

Hey Andii, is it known how much State Farm paid to acquire Ting?

Personally, I think Leakbot has bigger potential than Ting. They're both great products, but as a homeowner I feel (rightly or wrongly) that the chance of a water leak is much greater than that of an electrical fire... but I live in the UK and all our plugs are earthed...

If growth continues as-is, customers double roughly every 1.5 years.

As the number of potential customers has expanded faster and production facilities have gone from 10k to 40k units per month, it's possible growth could even accelerate.

Don't know what the rate limiting factor is, one guess is finding & training the plumbers, but that is just a guess.

Either way, I'd be happy to 'just' grow 70% year on year!

Just for info - There's been an AA Boeing plane with an engine fire, they were not RR engines, but a competitors'.

From Sky News:"The plane is 13 years old, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24 and is equipped with two CFM56 engines manufactured by CFM International, a joint venture between GE and Safran."

Everyone safely off, a few hospitalisations.

Hey BD, I'll offer my (non-expert) opinion...

Recession-proof? Possibly not, but perhaps recession-resistant.

The whole Ondo/Leakbot economic model is the insurer pays £50odd per year to save multiples in costly repairs, this equation is probably quite independent of macro economics. You either need insurance or not, and if you do need it you want the best value - Ondo helps here.

Also if prices go up, the sales model looks even more attractive. Say everything (Leakbot price, plumbers, taxes, small repairs and large 'replace your flooded kitchen' repairs) goes up 20%, well so will the insurers ROI so they end up saving even more $.

I am expecting this to be a monster unicorn though. How can it not be?!

Limited competition, customer saves money, customer's customer saves money, there are 100M customer's customers, £50 per year recurring revenue, paid in advance and break even before end of 1st year... Jeez, what's not to like?

Suspect there are too many unknowns to go too far down that road.

I'm just pleased to see genuinely exponential growth resulting from the product and leadership team in place (great track record!).

Projecting forwards, IMO, will underestimate things, as Andii also suggested. The 40k units per month expanded production may not be turned up to max yet, so there's further acceleration yet to come. Then further production lines stood up in time (hoping these are copy-paste).

The term exponential is bandied about and usually misused, but plotting that data (Excel) and fitting an exponential curve gave an R2 of 0.9915.

For those that have better things to do than go geek on the maths - that's a good fit and says this has been showing exponential growth, doubling every 477 days (on average).