Member Info for Red0rb

...and yet another advantage to highlight is the cashflow, where (esp. in the US) many (most?) insurers are covering the recurring revenue 12 months in advance. This should cover initial hardware & logistics costs so Ondo don't initially go into the negative on each sale.

RNS is very positive, think the accompanying presentation will be worth watching (a lot more info to be shared, RNS is just the headlines).

Personally, I just doubled my holdings.

I looked them up ('cos I hadn't heard of Ageas UK):

They are the UK's 6th biggest home insurer (assessed, I believe, by customer number), so they ain't minnows.

Additionally, the parent company is 'global', so you feel this agreement could open doors to even bigger markets.

My thoughts on this - all (continuing) to go well, a >£1B MC is deffo achievable. The bigger question might be 'when'?

I'm working on the short term (post initial production) revenue will be latched with spod price (roughly £25M post costs & tax to KOD for spod at current prices, another £25M for every 600 dollar shift in spod price (per tonne)).

You could apply a multiple to the revenue, but I don't know if the traditional way of valuing a miner works so well for lithium (at least yet) as the market's a bit immature/in a period of change.

So drivers for MC might be quite influenced by lithium price expectation and those other projects Bernard has up his sleeves (which will be solidly self-financed).

'10 year valuation' might work something like... cash in bank (year 0) + near-term earnings (DMS production x spod price x 3 years) + long-term expectations ((DMS + floatation productions) x spod price estimate x 7 years) + valuation of other projects (the gold, etc.) - cost of floatation - cost of exploration.

We can all add in our own numbers and estimates, but 1B doesn't require excessively crazy thinking.

Disclaimer (don't shoot me down (unless I'm being a dangerous fool)): Very much my own thoughts and how I see the project. No expertise and probably not the traditional/correct way to approach this!

Taken from the Feb 23 results:

Building financial resilience: Total underlying cash costs as a proportion of underlying gross margin (TCC/GM) ratio improved to 0.59x in 2023 from 0.80x in 2022. Net debt improved to £2.0bn (2022: £3.3bn). We have £4.1bn of drawn debt, of which £0.5bn matures in 2024, £0.8bn in 2025 and £2.8bn in 2026-2028, and £1.7bn of lease liabilities. We have £3.7bn in cash and cash equivalents and £3.5bn undrawn facilities, totalling £7.2bn of liquidity, and expect to repay the 2024 and 2025 bonds from cash. We cancelled a £1.0bn undrawn UK Export Finance (UKEF) backed facility in the year, and a £1.0bn undrawn bank loan facility reflecting our higher cash balance and more resilient financial position.

I'm no accountant, so I don't fully understand if drawn debt then stood at 4.1B and cash/reserves at 3.7B then why was net debt 2B? Thought the formula was: net debt = debt - cash.

Suspect I'm oversimplifying the economics, certainly straying out of my box :/

Ha! I know! And I want him to want a healthy excess too, I don't want my holding here to be short-term and I'm not all about rushing to divis (30 years 'til I retire).

I was just going off the money in the bank disclosed (late last year I think) and assuming we are day to day profit making. Crossing from more debt than cash to more cash than debt is a good psychological turning point!

...and the remaining debt is about equal to the amount of 'cash or cash-equivalents' in RR's accounts. So hopefully by now we're no longer in the red overall.

280k units current manufacturing capacity = about $16M pa recurring revenue, so not too bad a start for where I do is at (market cap wise).

I appreciate they've considered scaleup/replication of manufacturing, and from what I've seen the device probably doesn't require particularly unusual tooling/facilities to produce.

Guess it's all relative, personally I'm ok with Craig's holding (2.3%) and renumeration.

I don't know Craig's background, but he may not have a spare 1M lying around to buy in another 5%, most people don't and he is working a job just like the majority of us.

Total renumeration is £132.7k (source: simplywallstreet), that'll include salary+pension+shares+benefits, it's a good package don't get me wrong, deffo above average, but 'the average' doesn't have a tech company to run.

The RNS states:

"It has been agreed between Kodal and Hainan that any offtake agreement reached between KMUK and Hainan Group will be based on market prices for spodumene..."

So, no, not at a premium, but based on market prices. Not unreasonable IMO

To be clear it's being reported as/called 'British ISA', but it is billed as for UK investment. Hopefully no-one in Northern Ireland will be offended...

Hunt's also announced a new £5k pa ISA, which sits in addition to the current ISA allowance (20+5 pa), for investment in UK companies.

Detail needed (like how is UK company to be defined), but sounds to me like good news for RR, and a sensible move from the wider UK point-of-view.

Speaking as a chemist who develops sensor materials (albeit completely different material to QD's, and different sensing target). IMO:

I would be cautious about inferring much about sensing from what we know about display (either technicals or commercials). It's likely the QD's for IR sensing are different to those in display and so there's no comparison. On paper they may be the same (chemical constituents, chemical structure) but size, shape, purity, nature of impurities, carrier matrix/fluid, density in the matrix... all likely to be different and tailored to use.

I would expect them to be priced based on 'value' rather than 'cost' (Merck/Sigma sell volume chemicals, and are priced differently, it's a different league). I.e. how much are THESE dots, that do things no other dots can do, worth to YOUR product... and I guess unless one is privy to the commercial agreements or it's announced by either party, we'll probably never know!

I know we don't supply engines for Airbus's narrow body equivalent to the 737max, but if airlines stop buying the max and turn to alternatives they have Airbus choices. #1 like for like narrow body, with associated long lead-times (years?). #2 pivot strategy and buy (fewer) wide bodies which have a smaller orderbook.

So in my mind I can see scenarios where the lack of Boeing narrow body deliveries leads to an increase in Airbus widebody builds, possibly using RR engines.

Speculation I admit (and I'm no aviation industry expert!).

Apologies if already posted (been out of these boards last few days). This popped up on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/boeings-24-goals-murky-amid-probe-5922796/?utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=storylines_en&utm_medium=google_news

Boeing not offering financial or operational goals for '24 until things are more ship shape.

Great that we're getting upward momentum.

For interest; most (all?) quantum dots are nanoparticles (but not all nanoparticles are QD's). They tend to be at the lower end of the scale (

Actually, best to watch the video. The person filming states it's '...not even the emergency door...'.

Think they were lucky the adjacent seat was unoccupied.

Not so sure, just read the updated story (BBC) with images, you can't see the wing through the gap, normally the exits are right on the wing (not flown 737 max yet though, and am no expert on their design).

Nice neat edges though, so it's a complete section that's popped off rather than ripped off.

The airline has grounded all it's 60odd 737's pending inspections.

I'm flying to New Mexico next week... hopefully in an Airbus...

Ah! You beat me by one minute, Berny! Slow typing fingers. Hopefully all (any?) Replies will stick to the same (this) thread.

In competitor news (i.e. nothing to do with engines and doesn't even use RR engines) looks like a 737 max has a new problem, apparently part of the fuselage just popped off mid-flight, no-one injured or worse thankfully: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67899564

Could feed into sentiment affecting downstream aircraft (engine) sales, could plausibly also affect the 737 fleet if it looks like more than an isolated incident.