Member Info for Red0rb

My thoughts...We don't know pace of rollout is any slower than anticipated.

We don't even know what dictates the pace: Ondo could potentially manufacture 40k units a month if the taps are fully on and, with the insurers+jurisdictions already signed, Ondo have 6M addressable households. So it's plausible something else is determining the rate of delivery.

As mentioned a month or so ago, I wonder if it's about the plumbers/repair service - either recruiting & training the plumbers (Ondo plumbers get extra training, focussed on locating 'hidden' leaks), or managing the balance between new and established Leakbots (new Leakbots will be more 'plumber-intensive' as they'll be picking up slow leaks that've been going on for ages).

I expect Ondo to hit the big time (just do the maths), but it's very much a case of Rome wasn't built in a day.

An added bonus - Ondo are already operating in the state of Utah, therefore this deal doesn't require a new team of plumbers, it can utilise the current team.

This kind of 'expansion within existing jurisdiction' deal (assuming it evolves from pilot to full roll out, as they tend to) may be quicker to deliver on, and could have higher year 1 margins.

I'm not disappointed with 100% of the amount. It wouldn't matter if it were 3 or 30, negative people would still be saying 'well revenue won't be for ages yet...'.

It's 3 for now, but really it's 'all of them' for now, and support/a chance to prove the design to ensure RR get 'all the rest (>3) later on'

RR's 4th income pillar has been officially moved from 'potential' to 'happening'.

Holtec aren't really 'scaling back' though, because they never 'scaled up' in the first place - it was only ever words, and words not said long enough ago to affect much broader decision making and local planning. All puff really!

If we're debating history as if we're experts, the Soviets only became allies after being betrayed by Hitler (Re. Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, private agreements to divvy up Poland etc.).

So 'the' turning point (as if there's only one in something as complex as ww2) might actually be Hitlers arrogance/poor judgement in opening up a second (the Eastern) front. Bit like Putin's arrogance/poor judgement in thinking he'd take Kyiv in 4 days...

Well the editors at the FT either haven't actually read it (and corroborated it) or they're simply inept. Embarrassing.

Clearly a security expert as well as michelin star cook and investment guru.

I am not a security expert, I'm a scientist, however from my understanding, Wagner are not the force they used to be as they've been heavily absorbed into the conventional Russian forces. Additionally Wagner are not the only PMC operational in Mali and there's no indication all PMC's are withdrawing. So the impact might not be so felt.

Where did you read that, Oldsid?

Could you please post links?

Thanks

Ondo's model is not typical of the average 'small company'. Ondo have an addressable market of 10+M already in place - these are your agreed sales. Currently only 1-3% are fulfilled.

As OAPK20 notes, present focus needs to be on delivery. I think this is exactly what's currently going on, and we'll see it in the numbers.

From the 'share news' (above):

"Jefferies raises Chemring price target to 530 (500) pence - 'buy'"

With partners already signed up who collectively provide insurance for 6M homeowners Ondo doesn't need new signups. At the moment only a fraction of these households have a Leakbot (2-3%), we don't need to be chasing/distracted by more insurer sign-ups, we need to deliver on the current orders.

I think the main focus is now on executing build & delivery of Leakbots, and timely investigation/fix of leaks. Keep the homeowners happy which keeps the insurer happy. This rollout takes diligence. It's not gonna generate headline new insurance provider sign-ups, but will generate a healthy and growing bottom line revenue (break-even guidance: e/o this tax year).

I can see both substantial and long term year on year growth here, given the size of the opportunity and that Ondo has the potential to own the space. But achieving this right will be helped by a shift from 'initial sales' mode to 'delivery' mode.

Indeed, if delivery is executed correctly, and homeowners are happy, and insurers are happy, then Ondo may not need to court sales - new insurers will be asking to sign up. They may not get as favourable rates as the first movers.

Bfd, that was pretty much my point (sorry if unclear).

In my experience (which is not financial) Directors are rarely 'in the thick of it's, they are privy to insider info, but it's selected & filtered info. CEO's, COO's etc, they can visit the shop floor and chat to those actually doing the doing.

Well written and positive article (thanks for posting).

Is this the first time a number has been given by Craig stating the per-leakbot profit margin? I remember graphs which indicated good margins, but don't recall a statement to the tune of "Typically 70-80%" from year 2 onwards.

70% sounds nice & meaty (and higher than I've been using in my projection calculations) :)

In the long-term, if allowed to play out (hope so), my personal view is that Ondo could eclipse Ting/Whisker Labs.

Why?

1. Ondo provide the more comprehensive offering (vigilance & rectification, believe Ting is vigilance-only) and,

2. and this is very much personal-gut-feel, but I don't think I've ever spent any time worrying about electrical arcs (Ting), whereas leaks, they're a different matter...

Re. The stability question.

Spodumene/inorganic chemistry is not my field, but I am a professional chemist and have looked into this one before.

Spod and the SC6 concentrate are pretty darn stable under standard conditions, it's insoluble in water (rain) and stable at Malian temperatures, no oxidation can be expected (it's rock, and has already had millions of years exposed to oxygen). So all in all, it should be ok just piled up sitting in the Malian air.

The main risks are in the handling/shipping stages where, as it's been processed to a finer grain size, it can undergo 'liquification' which is a physical (not chemical) change where it behaves as a liquid when under (things like) vibrations, and can then 'slosh about' in its container. I trust the shippers are well on this as it's a common risk.

I'd ask: do we not think there's future market in SMR's for there to be more than one major player?

I'd think that there's room enough for 3 or 4 global suppliers, especially given the way of the world at the mo (protectionism, weaponising trade & supply chains, etc).

Reflecting - a few days ago the fears were around the trade deal giving concession/selling out to the US on SMR*. Now RR has their very own personalised tariff exemption and a new order for 42 engines.

The trade deal may be limited in part, but RR appears to be a significant beneficiary.

*Caveat is that SMR hasn't been announced one way or the other yet, that's separate, and my money is on RR getting 50 to 100% of the cut (i.e. no less than 50%).

The Flume system does not directly or independently detect leaks, it's an imaging device which watches your water meter tick over.

So yes, it should monitor water use/leaks, but it's use is restricted (has to be attached to the water meter) (looking at Flume website's images it wouldn't attach to mine), and it's accuracy will be limited (only as accurate as water meter already installed).

Ondo's service + companion device offering is much lower immediate CAPEX (year 1), long-term cheaper (up to 6 years, at least) and comes with the 'investigate & fix' service. It's also (likely) more universal (just clips direct on pipework). My conclusions 1 Flume as a competitor technology/approach is not particularly worrysome, 2 the fact Flume are trying further validates the user/insurance company need for these types of solution.

Can't see any reason to justify today's drop. Anyone got a clue?