Member Info for ReboundLess

There probably needs to be a sale sooner than later. The Carapa prospect can do its thing, but this share is probably going to bleed continuously until any news happens. Too many interests using too many tricks on too many weak hands for it to stay in positive territory. If we all just held on there wouldn't be a problem, but no one wants to be the bag holder. Not even when the bag is full of oil. Holding out on any kind of sale is just going to allow a lowball offer to make its way through. Get it done guys, thanks.

Exxon already had a chance to farm in, they would've looked at Eco's seismic in a DR, and it's likely their new ventures people have been told "no more Guyana" or they didn't see the value potential in paying $13M for 25% of this block. It's unlikely they were outbid as the entry costs were low and they would have understood the seismic interpretation better than Total.

If Exxon complete a farm in with Tullow, then I could believe that they would make a move on Eco. As it stands a deal would never make it past their risk analysis people (currently a mid tier operator, would be purchasing entry into the block as a junior partner with the hope of buying some more off Tullow and then trying to get operatorship? Talk about bet on black).

Exxon also have far too many Guyanese developments in the pipeline for any more distractions. You might say "what's one more" but TBH, there will be a finite number of people working on developing Stabroek and Exxon will be picking the best assets on their block to develop first - everything will happen in one after the other rather than development happening in parallel. They have more than enough on their plate.

I'm not saying it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying it's much more likely to be another suitor. There are plenty of other large players who would be more than interested in a lazy 15% of a world class asset. Why should we be so focused on the neighbours?

Fingers crossed that’s the weak hands gone and now we can slowly move upwards.

This is a bit weak, but from the gains we've had the last few weeks it isn't surprising.

OHHHHH YEESSSSSSSS

O&W: Yup, that was my point. Cheers.

Well, say for example they were mixing mud onshore and needed more because of pressure loss, they would send an extra ship and it would hang around while the mud was being pumped from the tanks. But all you would see is an extra ship, not what it is carrying. So it could just be a load of food, and they might have been mixing mud on the rig and needed to store the extra mud they’d mixed on the supply vessel. You will never know which one is which.

Regarding the shipping activity, unless you have the manifest you really have no idea what they’re loading or unloading. MARAD is about the only thing that will give you any advanced notice of what is happening. Supply ships come and go, you don’t know if they are loaded with mud from onshore, food for the crew or unloading things because the well is done.

It’s more likely that Eco (or its 15%) will be swallowed up by someone who is OK with being a junior partner in a large project with a smaller sized operator like Tullow. I can’t see that being acceptable for Exxon. I’d say it’d more likely to be a Chinese company or another Asian/Middle Eastern NOC.

The one thing that confuses me is that people are trying to price the company on the barrels discovered, rather than the geology proven. This company is worth more than the individual discoveries. It’s proven rocks. This is an entire play and they have 15% of billions and billions of dollars. It’s crazy that, even at this price, it is a total bargain.

IJWT: Crew changes on a drilling rig happen almost every day. It wouldn't be feasible to attempt to have ~200 people leave the ship at one time (and for what benefit?). Crew changes happen daily, with contractors coming and going as they're needed (everyone on board is needed). Most people who work for the contractor are on a one month rotation.

Can we get back on topic? You've literally brought up Trump, Hitler, Putin, Florida, Texas and Georgia, when all we give two s*its about is frickin Guyana and Gil.

Looks like one of the drill ships is moving on:
https://marad.gov.gy/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/No.-51_2019_EEPGL_Drilling.pdf
Results due any day now.

Appraisal wells usually take longer to wrap up than exploration wells. Liza-2 took five months for the results to be announced. I’ve seen appraisal wells take a year, but around 40 days is typical.

The fact that Exxon pushed the hammerhead appraisal ahead of the other discoveries says something positive about their expectations for this discovery. Hoping for the results soon.

https://petrusadvisers.com/media/letter_to_bill_schrader_19_february_2019_final.pdf