RE: Valuation possibilities28 Dec 2020 16:51
Hi Wittering, I didn't see your question about the "£6MM is 1/10th what the market cap will be if they find a 1Mt resource @ 2% Cu, and they expect larger, higher grade finds."
These are just numbers of finds that have been in similar play opening discoveries - similar companies and what people would potentially value the company at. It's hard to be exact, different regions behave differently. I have excel spreadsheets trying to figure this (to my wit's end), but it is purely speculation - based on similar companies finding somewhat similar resources.
For firm numbers you need to wait for a JORC report, but a good JORC compliant report stating these facts would likely mean the market cap being higher than what I stated. This share, in this market, with good results, and few willing traders - who knows? Not trying to ramp, we have good rocks and few traders. We're already 1/4 the way to that prediction without a significant find being graded anyway...
very basic calcs without my factors in play (tell me where i'm wrong, i don't mind):
1 MT * 0.02 = 20,000T Cu (1MT@2%Cu)
20,000 Cu * price of copper = ~£139MM
Price of extraction, price of shipping, price of etc etc etc. Everything is up in the air. 50% is a normal cost for dumping with DSO in small amounts. Add in royalties, etc. You're looking at a quarter.
The market only ever expect that you may to able to make at most 1/8 of everything you pull out of the ground. At most. They are very pessimistic sorts, but with fair reason. with all these factored in my fair value only comes in at around £4.44MM, and usually, you'll only ever see maybe half added to your share price. Probably not even that much.
Where the pricing changes is that a find of that kind confirms things that have been said. The confidence that a find would make in this play is important - it's not been tested for many years. It means that it could be a potential Flin Flon, and it's why I presumed a major would come in to take a stake on a decent confirmed hit. They got in early though, so remove 15-20% from my prediction. ~£40MM for a decent find. Seems they're not all stupid after all.