Re October 19th9 Sep 2021 11:28
Hello Seible
Apologies for the vagueness. On reflection, my comment is geared to LTH's here. - It is correct to say that Q3 is just a reporting period linked to progress towards forecast annual production. A compass-check if you like to ascertain that we are on course.- The meeting of forecasted production is a very important metric in relation to how the 'Market' views a company and the trust they place in its management. - This is then usually reflected in the SP and the P/E weighting. - In recent years, Centamin's forecasting has been heavily-weighted towards H2, therefore placing the heavy-lifting on Q3/Q4 production, whilst at the same time allowing for relatively poor Q1/Q2 production. - It's all gonna come right in Q3/Q4. - So, operating in this way leaves a mountain to climb in order to meet H2 production targets. - The first test of whether these targets are achievable or not is Q3, hence my phrase 'Truth quarter'. - If Q3 fails to produce the increased production required to keep forecast on track, the game is more or less up. It leaves Mount Everest to climb in Q4. - The market realizing this, reacts accordingly. - For the last three years, Centamin has failed miserably to meet forecast. - On each occasion ,the truth of the deception was revealed in Q3 reporting. It became the time when all manner of things started to go wrong and used as reason for failed production. As a long term-holder here, I predicted these events would happen although I take no pleasure in saying so. - So, do you get it now ? :-) - In terms of this year's vastly reduced forecast, Q1/ Q2
are pretty much in line with forecast, so there is not so much of a mountain to climb in H2. - On this basis, you never know, we may be in for a pleasant surprise. - BTW - I've noticed quite a few, mainly new posters I think, questioning how/why the SP in Centamin can be as low as it is.. - I hope this long-winded reply of mine helps shed some light on this question. - It can be reduced to one word. - 'Trust' - or in Cenatmin's case - Lack of it. - Good luck