focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I read it was Wood here...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/adnoc-awards-prized-engineering-contract-for-multibillion-dollar-gas-facilities-expansion/2-1-1504387&ved=2ahUKEwih4pSb7_SAAxUJXEEAHRylDCYQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1O-0R2-2JjfOdiQG0Sg5of
Could only see Woods name in headline when I searched in google. Not subscribed so couldn't read.
Bond buyers still not convinced. Price still in the bin and trades all looking like sells...still awaiting a last trade price which isn't at the bid price!
And new contrqcts won't fix the cashflow and "material risk" issues.
As I said before, this period is critical and there'sa faint glimmer of hope if they manage to navigate it without raising cash. Then it will be down to those c9ntracts they've won and how good the terms/estimate were.
I really would like some info on the split between lump sum and reimbursible in their backlog. Anyone know?
In the run up to today, I had a feeling results would be good. Noticing a pattern on some shares. It is as if when good results are coming, the traders pull the price down a few days before to collect as many as they can. Hold on to them and walk the price up for the day of the results and a nice return. Opposite often happens before bad news and a drop.
The amount of shares traded prior to announcement of bid being dropped is also shameful. Surely most of the big increase in volume was insiders trading.
Markets stink. Even if they do make some of us money from time to time. All designed for a fee useless traders to extract money. Is it not time for AI and blockchain to start keeping this lot from clipping every ticket and never paying their dues?
Happy. Nice to see you back.
Hope you grabbed a nice low average when getting back in.
I played my hand badly by not listening to my gut.
So got some ground to make up but still looking healthy.
Suspect we will see a gradual rise from here and hopefully back to the 200/300s in the not too distant.
Steady results. GLA
He is actually an ex PFC employee who holds a serious grudge.
But...he has some valid points.Partly as he does know the business, people and history.
Wow. Blind faith!
I have just given that warning. It was that warning you tried to tear lumps out of me for. Only to now get defensive after realising you were wrong and it is the company stating that their is a material risk of this.
And that stuff above is not a given. One part talks about the difficulty of securing the bonds they need to start the work and get some of that cash up front. Which incidentally, doesn't get them out of the woods as they then have to presumably pay out until the next stage payment if it is a lump sum job. Might not be....hope you have seen that contract and happy they aren't lump sum and well under as per some past (very expensive) jobs.
This isn't the only note or part of that statement worth reading to see just how secure your investment is. If your average is so amazongly low, I would hedge some of my winnings IF I were you. Which I am not (thankfully).
To spell it out, they don't have much cash. They need to pay people on the contracts they are doing, so that is being drawn down. To avoid breaking their own rules around being a solvent company, they need their base case...all rosy, they are paid on outstanding work, get payments up front for work they have yet to start and have no other nasty surprises. Plausible...but...erm.
If they don't, to me it sounds a lot like they have to go begging round the houses in the hope some already badly hit investors will foot the bill again..and on what terms this time?
And do your own research. I am an ex industry armchair economist, occassional gambler on a share that is looking good...not the financial advisor vin rightly suggests you seek.
I am still watching as they may yet thread the needle.
See also my posts under RealitBites for another of the warning flags on bonds.
I'm with you Vince.
I quote from speedy's response...
"Hi RealityShytes
If Petrofac last the winter??? You need help little boy. Why don't you go invest in apple or amazon or something. Petrofac is obviously giving you the runs, way outta your league loooooooooooooooooool"
From the guy who can't work out what that note means and why it is such a risk. ROFL!
ha. banned my butt. i will log in later and post to prove that point.
my name was always annoying me. fat fingers hadn't spotted the typo. when i changed phones it logged me out, so took the decision to change it while setting up again.
anyyway, i read that as, we hope all the stars (outlined in notes) align but if a couple don't, there is risk due to potential ability to raise funds. that was mentioned earlier and a real issue given market cap and what happened to the bonds they already issued, credit rating etc.
spouting **** i am not. clearly not all bother to read these things or take the time to unpick them.
ha. banned my butt. i will log in later and post to prove that point.
my name was always annoying me. fat fingers hadn't spotted the typo. when i changed phones it logged me out, so took the decision to change it while setting up again.
anyyway, i read that as, we hope all the stars (outlined in notes) align but if a couple don't, there is risk due to potential ability to raise funds. that was mentioned earlier and a real issue given market cap and what happened to the bonds they already issued, credit rating etc.
spouting **** i am not. clearly not all bother to read these things or take the time to unpick them.
Both the same chap...me!
Lol speedy.
The thing is, companies go pop because of cashflow. Not backlog. Reading the update and I think it was note 2.4 or something about cashflow being a material risk to continuing as a going concern. The buffer is getting thin and they highlight several things they are relying on over the next period to avoid the worst.
I've been in here a few times but given a pretty major downside risk in the near term, I will wait til we pass the cliff edge before getting back onboard.
Enjoy my daily visits though. Some of the hopefull pish spouted here does make me giggle.
**** getting real here.
will the golden drip of pee sink or swim.
if they need cash, they are screwed. if they manage to last the winter, we will just have to wait and see if they have undercooked yet another estimate.
norway watching closely which will be interesting.
bonds still looking rather unhealthy? any buys yet? marginal recovery on big contracts, presumably on fears of (an already sorted?) cashflow issue.