Member Info for RealitBites

It wasn't directed to me, but I think I could answer. The biggest opportunities will be in carbon capture and storage/hydrogen (maybe ammonia or other efuels) if those take off. Similarly in platform electrification and interfacing with offshore wind as the oil and gas sector seeks to decarbonise its own operations. All of the above require work on onshore plants or offshore platforms, use of hazardous gasses and as a result adherence to strict safety management and design processes which they already have experience with. There's a lot of uncertainty due to unknowns about the path to net zero, but opportunities will be huge and the skillsets for these overlap heavily with the game they are currently in.
There's also going to be the opportunity for diversification on the demand side as our whole energy system is about to be turned on it's head and a lot of infrastructure and facility upgrades required, but more competition from aligned companies I suspect. There is going to be a challenge finding the skills to do it all at once though, so not out of the question, especially with an acquisition or two.

Worley Parsons, another comparable competitor is also down 9% in 5 days.
Worth pointing out Worleys have a market cap of 5 billion! 10x what Petrofac is at present, with only £2 billion of revenue, albeit better PE ratio ....at the moment!

Although, did he just implicate himself as an inside trader!? In public? Whoops!

Wow, pretty arrogant comments again. So for the very first time, I am adding someone to my filter.....bye bye y11!

This may have had a chance if they were found guilty of actual bribery, but after 4 years of investigations, they were only found guilty of not preventing it.
So basically, no proof they knew and therefore no case. Certainly not in the way you describe there jaff.
The only thing they could go after is the fact they didn't have good enough processes in place to detect and prevent it.
How many companies is that true of? I think that's a flimsy argument, don't you?
I'd be annoyed too, but with investments come risks of downside, not just upside.

I don't think there's much chance of that! Who will be selling below 115 when all the shares issued were bought at that and many have averages well above?
If it goes anywhere near that level, those guys will just hold onto them and wait 'til it rises to get their cash back.
It would take something catastrophic for it to drop below as I see it.

Y11. I have just cut two slices of cake, eaten one and so proven you wrong as I still have the other,on fact, still have three quarters of a cake in a box! lol

Your response basically backs up my point.
You would change your trading style which is why it would be a good idea to introduce one.
If set at the correct level, it would wean out the pointless flipping of shares.
That does absolutely nothing useful for the market!

And would the price be lower, no. You jump in and get straight out at first chance, that's zero sum game for the price!
It just increases the volatility that you feast on and exaggerates the swings.

Literally pointless from a price discovery perspective and benefits nobody except the extremely smart people (lol) that are able to work out when one number is higher or lower than another!

Indeed y11. The guys who add nothing, nothing of value to the stock market, are rewarded in the current set up.
Which is why I am a big supporter of taxing your type......big time!

But I do still not really understand these accounts and I perhaps need someone to explain them to me.
They handle other peoples cash and seem to have little of their own.
If the members were expecting them to still have their 12million, but they have what, half a million in their own cash and have shorted PFC to the extent I mention below, isn't that the issue?
These ones are not like your average accounts being a investment management firm and I'll confess, the above could be garbage but happy if someone would unpick.....Mary, fancy a go? you said you used to be FCA so if you can't someone you know could probably! lol

P.S thanks for that link, it's an interesting graph and would need a bit of unpicking to see where they lost and won!

Perhaps, but they increased their short position a LOT in the middle of this year.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/rye-bay-capital-llp/
GIven what they have in bank and past profits, perhaps this is no problem for them.
BUt still a load of of pocket on this particular bet and been a tough year elsewhere in stocks and shares for many, which is why I was looking into it.
Can't believe they haven't closed, that's all. Was just trying to figure out why and came up with an idea and followed it through!

Thinking out loud a little more on this, is that percentage of shares on issue that they have lent out? Which they seem to have done most of when it was just over a quid, so that would be 4,185,390 shares lent out.
They seem to have done most of this at a little over £1. Today, those shares worth £1.35, so lets be generous and say they are having to shell out 25p on each share just from that alone, they would be losing 1.04 million. Complicted further by rights issue and them potentially having to offer someone they sold shares to a further what, 20p per share, that pretty much doubles it.
So they may have enough cash to cover it, but still some hit for someone so small.

So can someone tell me how much Rye bay are actually short in cash terms?
What does short by 1.21% mean? is that percentage of market cap short on day declared?
So as they say on September 24th, when price was around 137.4 (rising fast and they may have used the peak of that day) 345.91 shares in circulation, so Petrofac valued at 475.28 million then, and 1.21% would be about 5.75 million quid!
Or have I not understood the short tracker figures correctly?
Asking because of the latest here......
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/OC399786/filing-history
What happens if a shorter goes bust or defaults? Who takes the hit?

Indeed y11, you trade, I invest. Big difference and sometimes you will do better, sometimes I will.
At the moment you are winning on this one by the sounds of it, but I've put in a lot less work, meanwhile made a fair bit of cash doing my day job (which allows me enough flexibility to watch this board) and I'm guessing generally have less stressful days!
Although enjoying the lively, generally informative chat (excluding Escallum) and you never know, maybe someday with more time and knowledge, I will do a bit of both.

lol y11. I guess it's just a coincidence you sold out, assuming missing the late peak, and then start trying to talk it down again. It certainly comes across like you are hoping to buy back cheaper and not have to buy in higher and do 'your average 'on this share' any harm.
Guessing you'll buy much higher and forget this come time and use the new buy in to start calculating your 'new average' again.
I'm very happy and relatively confident that I will make many times my initial investment in a couple of years here, with little downside risk now SFO is gone, books are in order and projects starting to flow.
You play short term games, I just have a day job with less risk (which means some shares are off limits for conflict of interest reasons) and (hopefully) make wise investments. I don't need the short term, high risk, high stress stuff to get by.
And don't know some of the rules well enough, nor have the time to really do it justice.
Each too their own.
Might make it a retirement hobby with some spare change if I hit my target of retiring at 55! rofl

Poker, were those ones fully subscribed out of interest?

So you are not in at the moment and gutted you will miss the rise, hence trash talking it for now. Hoping for lower price which won't appear. Just get in tomorrow and board the train.
I don't trade, I invest. Very different, but still about making or at least, storing money. More about spotting a long term performer and hopping aboard near the bottom and holding for long term. Put some other money in funds and long term safe bets. for security rather than slightly risky bets like this was when I first bought. Not much of that at the moment though after blowing a lot investing in reducing my outgoings on the house with insulation and renewables following a move.
Looks like I made a wise choice with Petrofac (the golden drip of pee as I call it). On that note, I still think they need a rebrand once the dust settles!!

Paddy, it depends, but very unlikely given the size. Every contract is different.
Usually one like this will have staged payments on delivery of various aspects.
E.g. on delivery of spec, placement of orders, delivery of kit, completion of commissioning etc.

What's your concern here y11? That you are short?
It's lump sum, do you know payment terms y11? There could well be significant up front layouts that won't be recouped til later in the project.
Sorting out there finances just means the books will look even better at next update.
Would like to see some reimbursable contract wins to provide a steady drip in too of course. A couple of those and we'll be heading just where I hope.

Poker, a few years to collect the winnings though ;)

Crikey, you lot still going on this?!
Anyway, great news on the contract front. Should do well tomorrow and surely we'll see yet more shorts closing.
Bit shocked at lump sum, especially in a new country.
But I'm sure they got their sums right and plastered the bid and contract with assumptions and get out of jail free cards this time (he says nervously thinking back to a certain other job).