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I was watching this quite closely yesterday and noted that when the ticker has been below 117, volumes dropped off a cliff. Is that cause nobody selling at these levels? Some automatically traded and funds might of course.
It looked like it would slowly go up as buys came in, then a small sell would come in at or below the ask price and pull it back down again.
All very fishy if you ask me, but of course, I am just speculating as I don't normally watch as closely as I was yesterday.

* over 100 million share at 115, up to £200million raised......from proper investors who are not fools.

I don't need to as I know exactly what was being said as i was reading it all with interest.
The equity raise was brought up by some, as were the £3-4, even £7 targets of some analysts.
I pointed out that even after a potential dilution, this looked a bargain for a medium to long term investment. Still is imho!

If you bought in expecting to become a millionaire overnight, based on the comments a few people on this board, you should indeed be angry....with yourself! For not doing your own research and being overly optimistic about the speed of a return!!! I have said all along, this is medium top long term. Huge potential upside, now with limited downside!

And what kind of bad news would you expect to sink it to that level? You've plucked that from your backside with no justification!

Ask yourself, why did this get bought up by over £100 million shares at 115? Why are shorts closing so fast?
Answer, most that have looked at it and DTOR, expect it to go up from here. Significantly up.

We may have had some funny games going on due to share issue, dilution and then sell off of some of those cheap shares, but that will end soon and this will be set to jump on each new contract announcement and better results. That's what I'm HOPING for.

Any rise on the awards to date have been dampened by the above issues. Also, £600million isn't huge deal, it will stop a decline in their backlog, but probably not enough to increase it. And with one of those being lump sum, the actual profits a bit off from that one and an element of risk has to be priced in.

Have a beer or something....whatever makes you chill....or sell up and get out of this one if it isn't performing. If you hold, it seems illogical to come on the board shouting and screaming like you are, predicting doom. As I say, if you beieve in your prediction, sell up now and buy back in when it hits it!

I am still confident a recovery will come in the not too distant future.
I mean come on, if you want multiples, you can't expect it to happen overnight!
And we knew there was a chance of an equity raise, so can't complain about that.

The big news is that the SFO settlement has cleared the way for rosier times ahead. Hence the big buy in on the news.
Bigger gains to be had as backlog (hopefully) increases over coming months and (hopefully) a solid set of results.
Yes, the open offer scuppered any chance of a quick flip, but I half expected some weakness after the big jump on SFO announcement. Perhaps not as much or I might have tried to cash in and buy back, but it was always a risk.

At the end of the day, I am still happy with my average and suspect in two years time, could be looking at double/treble or more....but it's still a gamble at the end of the day! All shares are!!

Short term noise IMHO.
They can push the price around hoping some will sell and they pick up a bargain.
Just hold tight and the upside will slowly emerge, remembering that the SHORTERS ARE CLOSING!!!!
Would they be doing that if they thought this share was doomed to drop loads more?
Nope, they, and anyone who knows this share and this sector see the potential.
Analysts changing their tune and upgrading forecasts.
We just need a few more contracts and for the next set of accounts to show progress.
I'm all in now, took the opportunity to bag a few more and improve my average slightly.
Not expecting any great shakes this side of Chrimbo, but you never know, would certainly be nice.

What really amazes me is that 20million offered shares went unclaimed.
Presumably people who didn't realise they could do as Ncho says and sell a few to take up the offer.
Just giving away money there!

P.S. the below is pure speculation from me, a non expert.
Don't take my word for it, just expressing my own views based on looking up a few numbers and thinking about it logically

Kindof Paddy.
107million shares were placed to people who didn't have to buy the other 4 at a higher price.
Question is, how many of those will be sold versus how many shorts will be closing.
I reckon 2 weeks and we'll be clear of any short term selling from that lot, who won't want to push it down as it will impact their own profits from the deal.
Hopefully they hold and make the shorts squirm and pay more.
I suspect that in a years time, we'll be looking back wishing we'd had more to spend on any cheap ones that do appear over the next two weeks. I've another 30% of my current holding to throw at that and wish I had more!

Actually looking at the graph of shorts and on loan again, at times, there's more short than on loan, confused now, does that mean there could be 45million in need of buying back 38million in loans and 7million in shorts?
Think I need to learn more before I start playing with may of these metrics! lol

I had heard cancelled orders were used to manipulate the market also, more so cancelling orders if the price went the opposite way though. But I never know what to believe and til now, didn't really understand how it was possible. Certainly plausible but would surely be very easy to spot and root out and punish those doing it!

107million shares roughly bought at 115.
According to this site, 38million or so on loan of which 7million are declared shorts.
https://www.ortex.com/symbol/LSE/PFC/short_interest
Shorts surely must look to close next week at the earliest chance.
Still unclear as to what effect the open offer has on those who have loaned ones out. Especially if that were say a broker whose client was looking to take up the offer. Could that increase the need to buy more than is on loan?

Going to make for a bumpy ride I suspect. I've just set a buy order to catch any on a drop, but given the above, could well go the other way, especially if 115 buyers looking for more than the current price and don't sell much, which I suspect they will be.

Still wish the offer was for more than 1 in 4, then we'd really be motoring upwards (and my average would be even lower).
I did wonder if some of todays moves were due to some finding out how many weren't taken up and therefore had found out they had more in the bag at the low 115 price. As someone suggested Shaws might have done, sell the 130s and bag the 115s later for a quick profit with zero risk.

Interesting observations there JG68. Could the 131.30 on google be because of the one trade logged at 17:50, which could have been at the market opening?
All very strange today. That 115 can't be true, it certainly wasn't there and those are some big cancelled orders.

I suspect a few worried about a flood on Monday and hoping to buy back cheaper.
I'm not ditching any, just sitting with my pennies poised to scoop up some extras if it does prove the case :)

So the funds for my offer shares have now been taken, woohoo!.
Account looks a little funny at the mo, like I'm down a fortune, at least until the shares land!
I had put in a bit extra, which I've used to mop up a couple of pennies worth of Woodgroup shares, which were back below the £2 mark today. Bit of a gamble there s I haven't necessarily done my homework but it's a drop in the ocean compared to what I now have in PFC and thought worth a punt.
Might have to jump onto that board now too and end my exclusive PFC deal. lol

Only question is, where will I put the rest of the cash that I had sitting waiting in case PFC dropped below 120?
That looks like it won't be happening anytime soon, so any good tips?

I'm not experienced in these short term games, but my thinking is that although there's a risk, it is a short term one and limited. The institutions buying these at 115 did so looking for a profit, so won't trade it down to anywhere near those levels and although there may be an element of profit taking, more likely they will drip them in to try and maximise their profit. Only if disaster was looming might they panic sell and pull it back....they want it to go up just as much as me at this point!
There market cap is very low right now, even after dilution and considering their revenue and growing back log, this is way undervalued. SFO stuff really hurt them and COVID on the back of that hurt all of the above even more. Now that normality is returning, the fine is accounted for and they've also made some savings, the next set of accounts should look quite healthy, hopefully with a return to profit. Presumably the people buying expected this also and like me are hoping for serious gains over next couple of years.
Time will tell obviously, but that's my guess.
But never trust my advice, or anyone else on here. DYOR!

So good I had to say it twice! Either that or there's an echo in here! :D

Simply wall street have fair value estimation for this share as £4.04!
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-pfc/petrofac-shares

Simply wall street has fair value for this share of £4.04!
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-pfc/petrofac-shares

Well Brochrocker, I wasn't considering my weight. In fact trying to forget that since I formed my COVID belly! But I have put aside about 30% of the value of my post offer holding and IF it happens to drop below 120 at any point (not sure exactly where yet) I'll be getting that into PFC as well.

Oh and forgot to mention projects around reducing methane emissions on existing rigs, which is bound to be a focus after the COP26 announcements.