BP1234 this is what Warren Irvine had to say on twitter
Lots of criticism of the board, but shouldn't that be the old board, before the new arrivals joined? Looks to me like the new arrivals have taken this by the scruff of the neck at the last minute.
Kevin O'Kane and Keith Marshall (who ran OT!) arrived in October last year, wasn't that around the time Jason Ward had promised very casually in a webinar that the PFS should be released in 2-3 weeks? So should we infer that the PFS was pretty much finalised and about to be published, but O'Kane and Marshall got hold of it and said absolutely no way are you releasing this before we've gone over it properly? Which they have then done and basically ripped it up and decided to start again.
Those are the guys with genuine mining experience, and they have effectively decided to re-write the whole thing. Nick Mather having brought them on board then realised that he had completely over reached himself in his desire to rush out the PFS as soon as possible and decided to quit then because building mines is actually a lot harder than he thought. As DartFrog said, maybe that's the real reason he quit. He probably has the brass neck to have tried to ride out the AGM experience because he had deliberately provoked BHP and NCM anyway, but this tearing up of his Alpala plan was what made him see the reality of the situation?
Putting takeover bids aside, isn't there an argument that this is a better state of affairs IF Solg were to achieve its stated end point of building Alpala? Under the "old" plan they were never likely to pour their first gold until what 2028? Now the "new" plan should bring production sooner and with lower initial capex, even if it will mean a year's delay in publishing the PFS. In timing terms wouldn't the net result be about the same (production around 2028) but possibly with lower initial capex?
Maybe that's overly charitable and just clutching at straws given the SP action, but as JungleJane said, it's better to take longer over the plan and get the build right than rush the plan and mess up the build.
I think many of us would benefit from not watching every tick of the SP all day long, as it shortens time horizons to virtually zero and makes everyone impatient. When I first bought Solg it was intended to be a multiyear investment like everything else. In fact it went down and I topped up more at lower prices. When I was in the office I would read this board occasionally for interesting information but I couldn't post from work so was less engaged. Now I've been working from home for nearly 11 months, I'm reading this all day long, posted over 500 messages and frankly think I've become a bit obsessed with checking the SP, which is silly. Might be better to just ignore it for a few months and let it do its thing.
One thing to bear in mind is that the board has to act in the best interests of the shareholders, especially in a takeover. They can't come to some arrangement where the bidder says I'll offer you X but only if you stop releasing news so the price doesn't go higher. If the price would go higher based on the drill results then the board has to release those results, and should probably recommend the shareholders don't accept the bid as it would undervalue the company.
Also if a bid comes in today at X and the board thinks it is undervalue based on yet to be released drilling results, then they will release those results and should recommend shareholders reject the bid.
The BoD cannot act in conjunction with a potential bidder in order to supress the price so the bidder can get its offer away and the takeover completed.
If they are holding back because of ongoing negotiations then the price they are negotiating will have to also take into account the value of whatever they are holding back.
I really don't know why everyone keeps laying into Darren. So he trades, that's allowed, people can buy and sell as they please. He says what he thinks the price will do based on his models, and has admitted he was wrong several times which is a lot more than several others here.
Saying the price might go down 20% or so isn't heresy, in fact it's been proved to be true over the last month hasn't it.
Just had one of my periodic quick looks at the GGP board. Everyone seems to be arguing and back biting. Only a few weeks ago they were all back slapping, planning meet ups and writing poems about GGP...
At least we're consistent here on Solg, we've pretty much been arguing all the way up to 40p and back down again!
If the market thought we were in a news blackout while a deal was being negotiated wouldn't they be buying and bidding up the share price in anticipation of that announcement? At the moment it's being sold. I do not for a minute think the market is expecting the BOD to announce next week that they are recommending a takeover offer for Solg at 25p a share or something ridiculous.
The head of Interactive Brokers was on Bloomberg last night and said the reason they suspended trading was because the rapidly rising share prices were causing the value of the options to go up so much it risked the smaller brokers who are writing those calls not being able to payout. Since they are centrally cleared if one counterparty goes bust the CCP has to step in and settle the options, but the CCP is ultimately backed by its broker members, so those losses would basically work their way up the size chain of broker firms and reach even the larger houses. So he was basically saying brokers suspended trading to protect themselves as the price increase would have snowballed out of control.
You can make the argument that that is what the CCP is there for, to protect one counterparty against the credit risk of the other, so it should step in if a broker goes bust. But I guess they are arguing this wasn't a case of an individual broker blowing up, it was potentially a systemic risk that could have spread to the whole market.
I'm holding a lot of silver, it's my biggest position so obviously I am very bullish on its prospects. But to be honest I don't really buy the theory that JPM is illegally manipulating the silver market and their recent spoofing fines are evidence of that. To me spoofing is something you do to gain immediate or short term trading advantage. Yes they did it, and they did it a lot over a long period of time, so the cumulative gains from that will look large, but bearing in minds the volumes they trade over that period I don't think it's true that their spoofing activity has fundamentally held the price of silver lower. What does work against the price of physical I think is that you can legally sell paper contracts on the Comex in disproportionately large size relative to any actual holdings of silver you may have. Isn't that the real issue, that comex trading allows much more paper silver to be legally sold than is actually held, not that JPM is illegally spoofing the price down ?
I'm also not clear why it would be in JPM's interest to permanently suppress the price... if they could manipulate the market that easily surely they would lower the price, load up, then let it rip and sell, and then repeat. Just permanently holding the market down seems illogical to me.
Just popped out over lunch, came back an hour later and silver has gone vertical.
Maybe the game now is front running wallstreetbets lol
Hope I can actually sell my silver when it hits $1000!!
Yes. Which is why when people say the SP is the same as it was 4 or 5 years ago, that's actually better than it sounds considering Solg has spent millions, issued a lot of shares, earned nothing and is in that stage of the curve. IMHO.