Member Info for rcgl2

In an RNS on 5 May it said Blackrock had gone below 5%. Their holding is obviously right around the 5% mark so dipping below and now back above with the placing and then market purchases.

Maybe it's all your dummy orders that you keep cancelling creating a misleading impression of market demand RK?

Thing is about Blackrock, they are just reporting a total number, we don't know the breakdown of which funds or in what capacity they hold all their Solg shares. Some of them are in iShares ETFs so they have no real discretion about buying or selling there they are just going to track whatever the underlying index is. There's a chunk in their world mining trust. The rest could be active funds, passive funds, managed pension funds, managed institutional accounts... There is not just one big Blackrock pot that they manage for their own benefit. I don't really see them co-ordinating some devious trading strategy when their holdings are probably split across numerous funds and accounts with different managers. If they're trying to cap the price for the benefit of one fund they'd be robbing Peter to pay Paul imo.

They are one of the largest shareholders in BHP and NCM and all their competitors and for that matter most large listed companies. For BHP, acquiring Solg and all of its licences could be a key part of securing their future facing metals business for decades to come. If they ultimately buy Solg for $2bn or $3bn I don't think it's really going to move the needle on the BHP share price as such. But that difference would represent multiples higher return on Solg shares acquired for pennies. In the long run BHP will get Solg, but I'm sure a lot of Blackrock fund managers would rather see Solg bought for a higher price than a lowball.

It is not manipulated, there just isn't enough money buying the share at the moment to drive the price up. People say there are these large blocks on the ask of 500k or 1m shares at 30p or 31p. The idea that were it not for those blockers, the price would rise, and then more institutional investors would pile in at a higher price in order to sustain the upward price movement doesn't make sense to me. Why would fund managers be willing to invest substantial amounts of money at 40p but they aren't willing to buy 25% cheaper at 30p? If investors felt that Solg was such a great investment and was definitely going to be worth much more in the future than it is today, they would be buying up the shares right now and those large blocks of shares would get snapped up.

As it is, this is still a high risk share. The assets in the ground are incredibly valuable but they need to be de-risked further. More definition of the resources at the regionals is needed and the PFS and a realistic funding plan is needed for Alpala. News, PFS and funding plan will move the share price, we just need to wait for them.

Some blocks on the ask may deter day traders and short term traders but I don't think a significant share price rise is going to be driven and sustained by day traders, it will require more volume from longer term investors.

It's too easy to blame some nefarious manipulator when a share doesn't go up after you bought it. Reality is that more buyers are needed for the price to go up. Solg is hardly doing badly anyway. They just issued an extra 10% of the share capital of the company and the share price is actually higher today than it was on the day they announced the placing! The market cap of the company is about £71m higher today than it was when they announced the placing, so you could say the market is valuing Solg higher.

In the interim financials it says "3,000,000 options previously issued to Anna Legge were forfeited during the year ended 30 June 2020 as a result of her resignation." I think she was the old head of coms and investor relations?

Maybe the new options are for Fawzi... Bit hard not to offer him at least the same comp package as his predecessor.

Yes and do you remember that interview with the CEO of Franco Nevada last year, where he was talking about the Solgold deal and he said something very casually along the lines of "it's a block cave, but you've got Newcrest involved so it's all fine". It made me think that even though Solg hasn't got a formal JV in place with a major, the fact it has two majors as its biggest shareholders means that they really are already part of the action here. I don't think truly "independent" production is on the table in reality, ultimately one or both of BHP and NCM are going to be doing a lot of the actual minebuilding. The question is in what format will that arrangement play out.

Hi add - the thing is, you can pick and choose any snapshot timeline to support any given narrative can't you. You could buy Solg for less than 2p in late 2015, and by mid-2017 it was over 40p. A huge gain of more than 20x, with no JV in sight. Or as shipright just said, you could have bought Solg for well under 20p in March last year and doubled your money by October.

I seem to remember last year when NCM were moaning about the FNV deal that the prevailing feeling was that they just wanted to rack up their equity stake in Solg and then squeeze the rest of us out on the cheap. What's to stop them ultimately squeezing GGP out of Havieron, isn't that their usual MO?

In the meantime, just because Solg hasn't entered a JV yet, doesn't mean it can't or won't in the future. GGP's main focus is Havieron, and I thought Scallywag didn't come up trumps as expected. Solg has way, way more on its plate with Alpala, Porv and all the rest. It may make sense to JV or sell some or various projects and not others, we shall find out in the future. It could also be that the more Solg proves up, the more likely it is that it can either hang onto a greater stake in each project even if a major takes a majority stake, or it might end up getting taken over in its entirety for a higher amount than would have been realised by JV'ing Alpala too soon.

And yes I was being facetious with my comment about GGP but to be honest I don't think it's fair just to write off shareholders who are down on their investments as unlucky suckers. We all want the SP of our shares to go up so we can sell them on to someone else at a higher value. People on here have often complained that they think it's the company's duty to maximise the short term share price so investors can cash out, they seem to forget that by cashing out you are selling your shares to someone else whom the company also then has a duty to maximise value for. The company can't just say sorry folks, we sold all the family silver so the last lot of shareholders could sell you their shares at a higher price and now the cupboard is bare.

Guess their view has been and is that in the long run they can unlock a lot more shareholder value with this strategy than they would have unlocked by just JV'ing everything in sight. And if Solg gets taken out wholesale at a premium in the meantime because it doesn't want to JV its assets then that's also a good result.

People who bought GGP at 35p must be loving that material premium right now.

My experience with silver is that it's like a catapult... you have to draw it back first before it shoots forward. Each time some news or data comes out that should be good for PMs, they seem to drop first, and then they surge up. Just gotta be patient and ignore the short term noise. Yesterday's US inflation news should be good for PMs, inflation up multiple percent, 10y yields up by a few bps, outcome is that real yields are firmly negative. That's good for gold ultimately.

I expect much higher prices in the long run!

True true, I just don't like extreme vol keeping me awake at night! I'm about 5% in ORR, 15% SOLG, 25% Silver and the rest boring index funds, so I was happy to ride out ORR getting cut in half recently lol

Flippin eck, do you guys literally just go all in on tiny stocks like this?

Those percentages aren't accurate tho, they represent BHP and NCM's old shareholdings (pre-placing) divided by the new number of total shares (post-placing). Just auto-calculated based on what has been publicly released, and as of now BHP and NCM's new total shareholdings haven't been released.

Zoros how have you made ZERO money when the share price in 2013 was never above 14p? It's more than double that today. It spent the first half of 2013 under 5p. So every time the SP went up to high 30s/40p which it has done 3 times since then, did you load up and manage to top tick it?

It's pretty rare that I check my portfolio and every single holding is down on the day... it's not that highly correlated and some things are usually up even on bad days. Today everything was down, many by 2% or even 3%. So I think that's a pretty strong day and good finish for Solg on an otherwise nasty day in the markets.

The company already said that new institutional shareholders won't be on the significant holders list, presumably because no one has crossed the 3% threshold. We have already seen updated figures for DGR and Blackrock. The rules require TR1s from significant holders if they cross a 1% threshold either way and we haven't seen any other notifications. So from that I would assume that the updated significant shareholder list is going to look exactly the same as the current version, but with a few of the percentages changed.

BHP 13.xx%
NCM 13.xx%
DGR 8.91%
CGP 7.xx%
Tenstar 5.xx%
Blackrock 4.xx%

The only relevant facts about climate change for Solg are that most governments around the world have accepted that it is happening, and they are enacting policies to do something about it, most of which require large amounts of copper and to some extent silver. Solg is sitting on top of a lot of both. Demand for copper will be high for the foreseeable.

Doesn't matter if man-made climate change is real or not, doesn't matter if the policies succeed or not. What matters for the purposes of this board is that the policies are in place. Suggest taking the rest of the climate change discussion to another forum.

I'd told myself I already had enough exposure to Solg and wasn't gonna buy any more... But, I have a very positive feeling about things now so yesterday I topped up by half as much again at just under 30p. Should I have bought on 6 April at 22p? Yes probably, but it's only increased my overall average by less than 2p and I'm expecting very decent upside from here.

Isn't the defence against a 55p takeover just getting the SP to 55p? If it hits that level then anyone here who has been here for 10 years and would happily take 55p can sell up and head off to pastures new. And those of us who don't want to sell out that low and anyone buying in at that price will definitely not entertain a bid at 55p.

DTR 5.1.2 R 01/01/2021
RP
A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:

(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R; or
(2) reaches, exceeds or falls below an applicable threshold in (1) as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the issuer in accordance with DTR 5.6.1 Rand DTR 5.6.1A R;

So I think in fact looking at (1) that you only need to notify if your holding crosses a 1% threshold - which is what ColonelDrake said.

So from this should we infer that BHP and NCM have maintained their respective holdings at 13% and change? Which would make sense given that Solg is now proactively working with its major shareholders.

Hi addicknt, not only the UK rules, insiders should also be filing in Canada as well due to the tsx listing, and as yet nothing on SEDI either. Notifications must come soon.