Member Info for rcgl2

Isn't it possible that everyone ends up being right, if Solg are planning a JV with, let's say, BHP in order to take Alpala to production? Solg have first refusal on CGP's ENSA shares, maybe the agreement they have come to is that they won't stand in the way of BHP acquiring CGP's 15% of ENSA as part of the overall JV agreement. CGP get their long awaited exit and payday. BHP takes another 60% of ENSA shares off Solg's hands for a juicy sum and then then become 75/25 JV partners in ENSA. BHP does all the legwork and financing is sorted, and they get 75% of a 55 year mine supplying their future facing metals. Solg rides along as 25% JV partner, so still technically fulfilling their aim of becoming a producer while in reality not actually having to build or finance the mine themselves. Rinse and repeat for the next mine at Porv or Rio or whichever.

Why don't BHP mind about JV'ing the 10 low priority targets? Because they already have more than enough on their plate through all of Solg's other priority targets. As mentioned Alpala should be a 55 year mine. Porv and Rio and the rest have potential to be decent mines. How much exposure to one country does BHP realistically need? They want to run a tight ship, they are already the world's largest miner, maybe having a stake (through Solg) in a load of low priority targets that are well over a decade away from ever becoming a mine just doesn't add any value to them. So they are happy to allow Solg to offload them and focus on the priority licences instead?

Serious question - should Solgold change their name? To remove the gold bit and make it clear they are a copper play? It sounds a bit silly that the name should matter more than the fundamentals, but we see time and again that markets and many investors are silly. When a fad takes over, anything with the right name gets a lift. And look at the recent examples of the wrong stocks getting massive price increases just because their names sounded similar to the stocks people were trying to buy.

On a more serious note, if there are people out there (rightly) identifying the massive need for copper as an investment theme and searching for plays on that theme, surely having copper in the name would at least put the company onto more people's radar up front.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mining-giant-bhp-offers-buy-canadas-noront-resources-258-mln-2021-07-27/

BHP getting stuck in with a rival bid for a nickel/copper miner at an almost 70% premium to yesterday's price. Lots of focus on future facing metals.

Regarding news, I'm sure I remember for most of the first half of last year everyone was desperately asking for news, then in the second half we had frequent news releases as part of "shock and ore" and because the SP didn't rocket to the moon everyone was saying the company had overdone it, the constant news releases were just hype from Mather trying to save his skin at the AGM etc. Everyone was demanding a calmer, more professional approach. So at the start of this year Solg clearly stated that they would be releasing news less frequently from now on, not hole by hole, and would consolidate things into wider updates (of which we have had 4 already in 2021). Yet now people are moaning that there isn't enough news and news is being "suppressed"? Come on.

Blackrock are massive. Their funds own significant holdings in virtually every large cap developed market stock in the world and thousands of others too. I don't think it's in any way possible there is some centralized, co-ordinated trading activity around a tiny name like Solgold.

Solg is included in a various of their iShares ETFs as well as a few of their actively managed funds. They will not have autonomy over every buy and sell decision, a lot of them will be dictated by inflows and outflows into the ETFs and funds meaning they have to buy more or sell some of the shares in the basket. Also if the indices the ETFs track rebalance their baskets then the ETF has to also rebalance.

The task of trade reporting, regulatory filing etc must be absolutely biblical at somewhere like Blackrock, no wonder some clerical errors were made. I was involved in the implementation of trade reporting and pre- / post-trade transparency disclosure when MiFID 2 came in and it was virtually impossible to get right from the start, as was acknowledged by the FCA who expected a best efforts approach. The FCA were unable themselves to figure out exactly what some of the requirements of MiFID 2 actually were or how they should be applied.

Brutal day for my portfolio. Some savage declines... but, that's the game.

Not worried about Solg cos it's just a waiting game for PFS I think.

If it makes you feel better FTJNY, I'm more bullish about Solg now than when I first invested, I've not sold any shares, just added, and have no intention of selling any until either someone buys it out or they are worth a lot more than they are today.

I'm pretty relaxed about the timeline, I'd rather they got Alpala right than rushed it and messed it up. Ideally the regional drilling would have progressed faster but it is what it is. It's a frontier jurisdiction, not the easiest terrain and we're still neck deep in a global pandemic that has wreaked havoc with timelines of pretty much everything.

I'm not 15 but I am younger than what I guess is the average age of posters on here. Everything I invest in I am happy to hold for 10 years or more so if I have to wait a few more years for Solg to really deliver then that's fine.

Personal circumstances of course, we are all different.

Schlem. Do you think that once Alpala PFS and DFS are released there will be a substantial uplift in share price? If no, then why did you even hold Solg in the first place? If yes, then do you think that the PFS will come by the end of this year and DFS sometime next year? If yes, why are you selling out now? If no, then again, why were you even holding in the first place?

If you all keep selling all your holdings then no wonder the share price isn't going up. You can't complain that Solg isn't rising while at the same time selling shares.

God, the number of conspiracy theories on here about people shorting the share, playing games with the SP, MMs trying to screw us etc etc. It's more like all the people who keep selling in and out blocks of 100k+ shares who are just churning the price here.

And I don't think you need inside knowledge to know that not much material is going to happen until the autumn, the company have pretty much said as much. It's obvious with the drilling status, lab delays, Porv MRE pushed back and Alpala PFS due by year end.

I don't think it's manipulation so much as market fears that the reflation trade and booming economy is evaporating. US 10y and 30y yields are down, the curve is flattening, if copper is down it's because of that no? Also today silver just got hammered, I assume due to its industrial use in solar and green tech, but gold not as much. If anything gold holding above $1800 seems a nice surprise considering silver just got whacked in NY.

If you look at the Bushveld share price it pretty much doubled in the 2.5 months after that article was published.

To clarify a bit, obviously I do agree some dodgy behaviour does go on, there will always be bad apples who break the rules. Leaks happen, but imo they mainly come from company insiders and execs tipping off their mates and families or just not being able to keep their mouths shut. But I take issue with the idea that in modern banks the private side bankers are tipping off their public side colleagues - the controls and surveillance are too strong and the risks are too great these days.
I'm sure it used to happen back in the day, but we are not living in the 70s and 80s any more.

I also disagree with the idea that all the institutional players are in cahoots to deliberately trash a stock before a takeover. Solg is a prime example of what takeover rumours do to a SP. You don't need to be an insider or have some mate at a brokerage tipping you off, it's been a market assumption for years now that Solg will get taken over. Every now and again there is a rise in the price as people anticipate the impending offer and then it doesn't materialise, interest ebbs away and the price sinks again. It's like buy the rumour, sell the lack of news.

Price swings are exacerbated nowadays by HFT, algos and a small army of amateur day traders all frantically chasing momentum, just because a price rise or drop seems to be too strong in relation to fundamentals doesn't mean it's being manipulated by a shady cabal of hedge funds and banks. Factor investing has been a big thing over the last decade and the momentum factor seems to be consistently one of the most reliable if you like that sort of thing. It's no wonder moves up and down get piled on and amplified these days.

If you're going to get stiffed by anyone, it's much more likely to be the existing controlling shareholders who stiff you. Quady your experience in that oil share where (iirc) the Chinese family owners just squeezed out the PIs on the cheap is a prime example. Dodgy individuals and families from dodgy countries are more of a risk to PIs in small resource stocks than Goldman or Citadel imho.

That article is largely boll ox and it just feeds the typical retail investor narrative that it's all a grand conspiracy against you and the big evil banks and hedge funds are working together to manipulate every stock you buy and cheat you out of your money. This is why so many PIs invest with emotions rather than logic and actually are their own worst enemies. The professionals just have to sit there and watch PIs fritter their cash away because of rubbish like this.

I feel like the situation with Porvenir and the regional drilling demonstrates that Solgold are bumping right up against the limits of their capacity now. Whilst it's an enviable position for an explorer of their status to have such a prospective portfolio and so many promising targets, it also shows how easy it would be to over-extend themselves.

Alpala has been the flagship for a long time. Last year it felt like focus might be shifting to Porvenir and even a few weeks ago we were expecting an imminent MRE. Now it seems that resources and focus are firmly back on Cascabel with the need to drill more around TA etc, and Porv has had to go on the back burner to some degree. Also some of the regionals we are constantly being told are about to get going but never actually seem to deliver a full drilling programme. Clealy Solg are having to manage their resources carefully as they have a lot of plates spinning at once, but when push comes to shove they have to focus on keeping the Cascabel plate spinning ahead of everything else.

I'm not being critical and begging for a takeover here. Just noting that sometimes the timelines can become extended because Solg don't have the resources to keep pushing all of their targets with equal speed. If the portfolio was in the hands of a major, I guess they would have more resources available to keep drills turning and studies progressing at a faster rate across the board.

I find the stuff on page 7 about the share price a little odd. Talking about the rises and falls since the Porv discovery.

"Announced discovery of Cacharposa Cu/Au porphyry system at Porvenir generated strong shareholder returns in late 2020. Share price up over 50% from announcement to peak adding nearly £300m to SolGold’s market capitalisation"

It may well have generated "strong shareholder returns in late 2020" but they were hardly very sticky... The inference almost seems to be "you wanted high returns? Well those were them. But if you didn't sell all your shares at 42p during the 1 day it was at that price, then too bad!"

And then it follows that by saying "Share price down over 30% from peak compared to copper price up nearly 40% over the same period" I assume what they are trying to say is that the SP is now very undervalued, but to be honest it doesn't come across that well to me. There were strong shareholder returns, for the blink of an eye, but they have now completely evaporated, despite the copper price going up 40% in that period! Way to go.

I think I know what they are trying to say on this slide but it seems a bit of a strange way to say it.

Been a while since I filtered anyone... Just added to the list though.

Why do people keep saying we are going into a quiet news period because of the rainy season? Results of work done before the rainy season are still to come no? And there are known lab delays. Just because drills aren't turning over a specific couple of months doesn't mean more news can't come in that period.

Guys the movement of the SP in the first 2 hours after a news release is not the conclusive "market reaction" to the news. PIs and day traders will buy and sell but to really get the re-rate it needs institutional investors to buy in. It's not as if fund managers are sitting there frantically checking for RNS updates on their targets while they eat their Cornflakes, read the ORR RNS in 2 minutes and then instantly get on the phone to their trading desk screaming "buy, buy, buy!"

It takes time for results to be properly digested by "the market", you can't draw definitive conclusions about whether your ORR investment is a winner or a loser just based on what has happened between 7am and now.

Basing investment decisions on the perceived quality of an anonymous message board is ridiculous. Having a "good" board on LSE has absolutely no bearing on the fundamental investment case for a company whatsoever. In fact I think it can be a dangerous thing because it can lull people into a false sense of security or a herd mentality.

And anyway, the CGP board is an absolute cess pit most of the times I've looked at it. Now the SP has tanked it's full of people moaning about conspiracy theories, manipulation, it's not fair the price went down etc. When it was at 37p anyone who voiced a negative opinion was hounded from the board and accused of malicious de-ramping, and in some cases banned from LSE, because the mods on CGP clearly had positions in the stock themselves... when in fact the people saying it was overvalued and would go back below 20p have been proven right. And some of the "highly respected posters" who bamboozle everyone else with their seemingly detailed research may have got it right that it was undervalued at 1p, but they were also still claiming that at 37p and probably tempted a load of people to buy at that level with their theories of why it was going to £1 or whatever. They are usually the ones who then reveal that they "top-sliced" at the top, meaning they sold out while telling everyone else to pile in.

The special resolutions are pretty standard, to disapply statutory pre-emption rights. They are to allow the company to issue and allot new shares without having to offer them pre-emptively to existing shareholders first. Because the pre-emption rights are statutory from the Companies Act, companies have to pass a special resolution to disapply them. The authority will usually last for a year until the next AGM.

It's pretty normal to do this, it just gives the company flexibility to raise funds as and when it needs to. It doesn't mean that there is a specific dilutive equity raise being planned. Many companies will pass these special resolutions every year so their board is authorised to conduct a fund raise if necessary.