Member Info for RayPointer

It's like Wild said, it appears that, so far, there is no guarantee of high avidity TCells using mRNA vaccines.
Lindy has shown that high avidity TCells have a wonderful effect in the adjuvant setting.

Now in a non-adjuvant setting, will the combination of SCIB1 and Keytruda give similar results in humans as it does with mice.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5347755/

See the Results paragraph:

"In this study, we show that these immune responses result in therapeutic anti-tumor responses against established B16F1-DR4 tumors and in long term survival in 40% of mice (p=0.022, Figure ?Figure1A).1A). A similar anti-tumor response can be induced by PD-1 blockade which resulted in long term survival in 50% of mice (p= 0.0047, Figure ?Figure1A).1A). This anti-tumor response could be significantly enhanced by combining PD-1 blockade with SCIB1 showing enhanced survival of 80% compared to control (p<0.0001) or when compared to SCIB1 (p=0.0066) or PD-1 blockade alone (p=0.0234) (Figure ?(Figure1A).1A)."

Of course, there is no guarantee of replicating these results in the human trial that has just st-st-st-started (sorry I am stuttering) and the number of patients is small (25).
Anyway, it is encouraging that we now have 5 sites (4 in the UK and 1 in the US).
Let's hope that the first patient is dosed soon after trials re-commence.

My own view is that it is too difficult to value Scancell.
It is even more difficult to predict the acceleration or deceleration of the MCAP.
All I can say is "I like the science but I am not a cancer research scientist", and I think it there is huge upside if we get those trials going and they show success.

But what is the best method to value a company that has multiple products in their pipeline?

I cannot see Scancell taking any product into a Phase III trial. So they will want to deal after a successful Phase II trial with an upfront payment and stage payments OR an outright sale of the product. They will use the upfront/sale payments to do further research and develop their 2 major platforms further to create new products.
It becomes a virtuous circle. This is very possible with Lindy heading the research.
The above is, of course, the optimistic view.

But it is virtually impossible to make a valuation since it depends on:
a) The efficacy of the each product
b) The current standard of care treatment which in the case of some moditope targets is very poor.
So the chance of beating the current standard significantly.
c) What a deal maker is prepared to pay
d) Whether cancer vaccines are back in vogue (maybe the first deal would be on the low side but further deals
increase as confidence in the platforms increases)
e) An estimate of what further dilution is required before deal payments start kicking in.

etc (make your own factors up)

The pessimistic view is that all products fail and the company goes out of existence.

To me it is virtually impossible to predict all of these factors. The most difficult of all is trying to estimate a SP from all of this.
Look at the market cap of Moderna, with at least 1 commentator thinking they are a scam.

its just a case of Deal vs Scancell taking it all the way to market themselves.
The latter is the way Trinity are valuing it.

We actually have 4 UK locations now as pointed out by Bermuda recently.
What we don't know is if Scancell will or will not pay for Keytruda at the other 3 locations. I would guess that
they don't have to pay but no announcement has been made.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04079166#contacts

Recruitment has yet to start at the other 3 locations but this may be due to the pandemic.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/merck-keytruda-roche-tecentriq-approval/

I take is this was the much vaunted personalised vaccine trial that Sean Marett of Biontech was so excited about.
It would be interested how much Roche/Biontech have spent on research and development leading up to this trial.
Biontech do have other options, don't they?

It does if his name is Van Gogh.

Bermuda

I totally agree. The Guessing the future SP movement is impossible IMO since it all about events unfolding (including placings) and then how big pharma value our IP based on those events.
The valuation may be based on product by product licensing deals or the worth of the company as a whole for an outright sale.

Will Scancell ever run a phase III trial on their own?

To me, if phase I/II trials are as successful as we hope, then the company could well be bought out.
So then we are talking about a price for Scancell's IP.

Lindy asks the question "Cancer vaccine: how far are we from curing cancer?"

https://www.scancell.co.uk/Data/Sites/1/media/publications/papers/biofeb19web_choudhury.pdf

We all hope that the planned trials start to indicate that we are getting closer to a cure.
What price then for the Scancell IP?

Thanks Bunsie
I wanted to give a balanced answer.
It's been a long wait but I think it will be worth it.
Wake me up when something happens LOL.

Most invested here are excited about the science. Some are disillusioned.
Be cautious since it is taking a long time to prove the science in clinical trials.
Having said that, Scancell did have a lot of success in the one clinical trial that has been completed.

So we are all awaiting the milestones.

a) SCIB1 in combination with Keytruda. This trial has started but so far has not recruited any patients
b) SCIB2 is being run and financed by CRUK and has not yet started and unlikely to start for at least 12 months IMO
c) Modi1 trial is awaiting the resolution of manufacturing problems then I think it is free to start

Collaborations
a) 3 collaborations for mABs that incorporate Avidimab recently announced for which we may see some action this year
b) 1 collaboration with BionTech that has been going on for over 2 years. This is in the area of TCR using Modi1 targets. We
don't know at what stage this work is at.

Further moditope vaccines
a) Modi2 well advanced but not yet pre-clinical
b) Modi3 - talked about but no announcements so far

Covid19

A vaccine is being developed but is still awaiting finance.

There is nothing definite about any of the milestones.
The science keeps on being expanded but the frustration is about the slow progress of getting the products into trials and publishing that all important data.
But a company well respected by scientific peers.

The problems of trying to work and keep up with the BB LOL

Bermuda

Yes, I agree it makes not difference to progressing the trial.

And, yes, you are correct about the source of the research. I just read Inan's post and interpreted the text he displayed.
Apologies for misleading the BB.

Ruck

We will have to wait to see how important this research is.
It is also an example of the versatility of the immune system.
You could class this as background research at present, but Lindy does have a knack of transforming this type of research into practical solutions.

Crumbs

Your post last night.

"I'm not one for conspiracy theories and certainly when I got involved in buying scancell shares I never thought Lindy being female had any bearing at all!.... now I begin to wonder"

I certainly think that if Emmeline Pankhurst was still around and had taken up Lindy's cause, a few windows would have been broken by now. The glass ceiling still exists.

I am happy with the strategy of science->data->deals for immunobody and moditope.
It is refreshing that Scancell chose not to employ that strategy for Avidimab and within a short space of time attracted 3 collaborators.

Each of Scancell's 3 trials could be a game changer and my favourite Modi1 could be a mega game changer.
We simply have to take notice of the continued research of Moditope and its quality. We are invested in a research based company. If we perceive that the research begins to tail off or is shown to be a failure or being surpassed by other research, as investors, we would probably want to bail out.
I don't see the research tailing off and I see that other companies are still interested in Scancell.

So, to this latest bit of research. As Inan pointed out, what was once thought to be a prerequisite of Moditope succeeding (the expression of MHCII on tumour surfaces) now may not be the case. The immune system finds another way of utilising the CD4+ cytotoxic TCells without MHCII being expressed). Another pretty important discovery since it possibly increases the Moditope scope.

The frustration of timescales still remain.

It doesn't seem there is any change to Modi1.
It is an indication, though, that the research into Moditope is continuing.
As Bermuda says, there is now evidence that the memory TCells can help to stop more than 1 type of cancer. So there is potential added value there.

The important event we are all waiting for is the successful manufacture of the 3rd conjugate and then combining the 3 conjugates into Modi1. Hopefully the Modi1 trial can then commence.

Let's hope that trial recruitment will be easier.
There are 3 types of cancer in the trial and it is aimed at patients where it is the last throw of the dice.
We also have the benefit of the CAB to add kudos to the trial.

Well, the ISA people relate to Amplivant which is the adjuvant whose conjugation to the 3 Modi1 peptides is causing so much trouble to manufacture.
I recall ISA people contributing to Scancell articles in the past, but I don't recall 3 contributing. The CEO of ISA was a member of project blueprint.
Obviously, the success of Modi1 is very important to ISA.

The 2 Nottingham Uni people are to be expected as Lindy still works for Nottingham Uni and often commissions Scancell work to be carried out by Nottingham Uni.

I notice that amongst the contributors to this article there are 2 people from Nottingham Uni and 3 from ISA Pharmaceuticals.
This is in addition to the Scancell employees.