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I am pretty confident there are NDA's in place tho they wouldnt need to be to not reveal commercially sensitive information.
All the information investors are looking for is commercially sensitive so we wouldn't hear anything about them anyway.
I'm sure there will be a way and methods of doing it.
The only worry would be are the validation systems going to accommodate for ways to prove the new gold Standard tests.
I would like to think they would tho.
Is there anyone in this field that has any insight in to how this would be achieved?
How do you validate any test that is more accurate than the test that has verified samples which are used for validation?
For example if you have "known samples" from PCR tests been used to validate our LFT and BAMS
And the PCR tests are not 100% than the best the tests would ever show is the same accuracy as the PCR.
If BAMS were to be 100% accuracy and validation method samples were 99.7% then the 30 people out of 1000 that were false readings would also be shown to be false readings on BAMS when actually they are not.
Think Blair is just stating the obvious.
It's just common sense that all air travel and border crossings will require a negitive test going forward.
The idea of vaccine passports or the sort is only a valid idea if vaccines are proven to stop transmission to the same level of there efficacy.
Once we reach a point where there is an abundance of high-quality LFD's a £5 test on to price of a flights will be a no brainer.
A further 2 tests to be taken on a positive result will severely minimise false positives, 2/3 or 3/3 is final result. Again the cost of further 2 tests will be paid be customer upon positive test , which I cant see being an issue.
There will then be an isolation protocol for the positive cases.
The only thing holding this back at the moment is the sevre lack of high quality LFD's,
Tho i can see this landscape change by the end of march.
If avacta can pull off the manufacturing partnerships needed to fulfill the demand the market that is there for these LFD's is on a monumental scale.
Agreed they will be mandatory paid for by customer which no-one will mind at £5 keeps country's a lot safer from virus variants at no cost to governments.
As soon as there is enough tests to implement this it will happen.
There is alot that isn't clear at the moment.
What is clear is that Abingdon and BBI are in the process of major manufacturering expansion costing millions of £s.
There is absolutely no way they are scaling up to these levels for the sake of 6 months ,they have clearly been ensured that their factories will be at full capacity for years to come.
Avacta will be taking capacity of "many 10s of millions"
Still hopfull that we can go ahead with s/e Asia manufacturing aswell tho I see the preferred route of licensing the reagents as the path that will be taken, time will tell.
Was listening to directors talk interview again from 23 november.
Https://vimeo.com/482602391
LFT ready to begin clinical evaluation as a precursor to CV sites in place in UK and Europe.
BAMS in the middle of clinical evaluation, once they have the data they will make final tweaks before full CV.
Where we are now:
LFT must be nearing completion of clinical evaluation unless it already has and is now having final tweaks before CV.
BAMS must have started full CV unless there where tweaks that take a considerable amount of time.
There is the possibility that we will not get the s/s news or confirmation ov CV beginning on either LFT or BAMS and the next RNS's will be completion of CV
AS had previously mentioned once scale up is complete at BBi and Abingdon health manufacturing capacity will be " many tens of millions per month"
To me that sounds in the region of 50 million per month.
As for se Asia manufacturing we have had no further information but if they know demand is going to be needed than why not go through with it.
Would imagine avacta and BBI would need to put together a team to send out to se Asia to make sure things go to plan and are done correctly.
No bother sage no offence taken.
The higher estimation is based on LFT being just about perfect which would confirm and showcase the affimer platform across the globe,
I think in that case there would be alot of interest from big pharma and gave a rough valuation of 2 billion for the affimer platform as it would be proven in LFT to be far superior to antibodies and aptamers.
Also gave a rough valuation of LFT of 1.5 billion to LFT as it would be by far best in class and would be better than PCR, keep in mind these are all just guesses to have a rough go at where we could be in 3 months.
Just to clear up from post yesterday as sage has clearly misinterpreted what I ment.
The worst case scenario was based on number 3.
Which would mean we brought a LFT to market.
Obviously the actual worst case would be we go into to liquidation and lose everything. This is obviously not going to happen but there is a clear difference between going into liquidation and having a sp of 300-500.
There is so many variables that could happen that it is hard even to give rough estimates.
We have all made our own calculations to where it the sp will be.
1.say LFT turns out to be almost perfect, even better than PCR that is not only going to be massive for the LFT but that confirms the affimer platform which is worth billions in its own right.
2.then say the LFT is in par with other decent tests is still good for LFT but big players are going to need more convincing that affimers are better than antibodies and aptamers.
3.and last of all if a LFT is released that is sub standard to the better tests out just now it will still make decent revenues and fund other programmes in to the clinic, and at this point the affimer platform will be ruined untill it can be proven in ava6000 even then Doubts could be cast over it as antibodies and aptamers were proven better in LFTs.
As for BAMS we already know it is gold standard just need completion of CV so we can start making our royalties.
We will have multiples of today's sp on news of LFT but I think the bigger rises will come on actual manufacturing capacity news,actual orders and forecasts for revenue.
Guess at sp in 3 months:
Best case 1500 -1800
Worts case 300- 500
Gkb47 if u haven't already noticed there is no concrete evidence hence all the speculation.
Secondly it's not ment to be an endorsement of avacta simply stating what I believe has happened
Thought that would have been obvious as I said " I believe"
And thirdly avacta certainly haven't been going down a blind alley for months keep in mind this is not avactas domain ( LFD's) they were bound too have issues in development.
AS has also previously said he will not rush this test out and risk issues further down the line.
I believe the delay to have been caused by the initial prototype cytiva had made were useless to be mass produced .
There were too many parts.
Parts were not easily accessible.
Would have had to be too many adjustments to machinery already in BBI's manufacturing facilities.
Was probably spit on strip which you just can't do with covid-19 for obvious reasons.
Abingdon health also stated on twitter the importance of working with your manufacturer during design and development process.
BBI helped design new nasal test using parts easily accessible and could be manufactured using there existing standard machinery in their factories therefor doing away with TT.
Regarding your statement:
"You can say the volume will make up for it, but even with BBI, Abingdon, ODX the best case with their other products they may get a couple of million tests...."
Once scale up is complete with BBI and Abingdon they will be able to manufacture " many tens of millions per month" AS stated this month's ago.
As for price of test ,they were originally ment to cost £10 for mass bulk buys and around £20-£25 for home use supplied through medusa19.
The landscape has changed and I would expect tests now to be £5 and under when bought in mass due to competition.
Once manufacturing scale up is complete at Abingdon health and BBI previous statement from AS said capicity will be " many 10s of millions per month" to me that seems like 50 million + per month .
the question is will there be more manufacturing partners, especially will the Asian manufacturing partners be used?
AS doesn't come across as that type,there is something stopping him from updating the market with and not keeping investors informed or else why wouldn't he? Wether it's an NDA or just the agreements between avacta and thrid parties not to discuss the failings ,changes or certain progress we don't know.
For me the silence is a good sign I just feel there is something bigger going on behind the scenes.
As an investment even without covid products the mcap just now is around the point I believe the company to be worth at the stage it is at and with current deals in place .
The future revenue from covid products will fund and put numerous other products into the clinic,
The potential for avacta if the results of ava6000 are as good as we hope are truly transformational.
So to will the affimer platform if we can showcase it to the world that using antibodies is no longer a viable option when you can use affimers much cheaper and can do much more with them.
For me avacta is one of those opportunities that you will only ever get a few of in your life and to be grasped with both hands.