Member Info for Ranjm

It has been a brutal civil conflict on both sides, the report im referring to covers the period from 2016 to I believe 2019. The text you have submitted references the height of the conflict at its early stage. One of the main catalysts during the Euromaiden protests which incited the Russian revolt was the awful burning of the Trade Union building which Ukrainians set on fire killing around 50 Russians, some falling to their death, others being burned alive.

Yes, both sides are brutal, i'm not for once stating the Russians are angels however it is evidently clear over the last eight years there has been a very strong far right anti Russian movement in Ukraine. Unfortunately the UN is somewhat partisan as it is largely funded by the US and to date cannot enforce anything against the US. Just look at US two closest allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, great example of human rights...!!!

I think you should read on the United Nations website their human rights documentation, a detailed report from 2016 to 2019 (around that time), which describes the atrocities commited by the Ukranian far right sectarian groups towards the Russians in the Donbass. It is brutal. Putin has been helping the Russian "seperatists" over the last eight years, Ukraine did not want to agree to the Minsk agreements which has in part led to this war.

In regards Putin attacking Kyviv, I disagree with that, he should have focused just on the Donbass. I think the reason he did that though was not to annex the city but to subjugate Ukraine to meet his demands. It makes zero sense for Putin to want to annex Ukraine towards a so called imperial old USSR dream. In his heart yes, in his head definitley no. In fact, if you watch one of his earlier interviews he talks about how stupid it would be for Russia to try and reclaim those lost territories. Makes no sense and Putin is not dumb, far from it.

@ neeew

Yes, no one can condone war or such terrible destruction. Certainly people will feel emotionaly sickened by these events and rightly so, however war fatigue will kick in and people will start to feel more their own financial pain regarding disposable income with current inflation. People will rebel against the large amounts of money western governments are sending to Ukraine which will only prolong the inevitable outcome of the conflict. Shame the media or rather western media are terribly partisan.

@ Isleworth spy

The US said they were not going to expand NATO eastwards in the 1990s however nothing was ratified and signed on paper. Putin last December requested a written, signed confirmation Ukraine would not join NATO and would be a buffer state with security guarantees, nothing was done. The problem is two fold. NATO expansion on Russian borders and also recognising the Donbass as autonomous, independent states. The problem with the anti Russian West is that they have implored Zelensky not to give in to any demands or territory to Russia. It's really rather stupid, the ethnic Russian speaking people in the Donbass want to remain Russian and keep their traditions. They fear the West is imploding with wokeness, cancel culture and the lgbtq alphabet soup/gender identity issues and do not want those problems permeating into their culture. Western Ukraine on the other hand are desperate to "de-russify" as much as possible, to join the EU which they believe will mend their disastrous economy and move towards "western values". What they dont get is that Ukraine is soo damn corrupt and so far from so called western values it will take many, many years for them to be an EU member as Macron has stated. The EU are just paying lip service to them at the moment showing solidarity.

The West needs to accept Putins demands are going to be met one way or the other, his demands are actually reasonable. Their obstinacy and absurd sanctions are causing havoc to hundreds of millions of ordinary people around the world.

Watch the link I posted with John Mersheimer, distinguished professor in international relations.

@ always winning, you and I share very similar views. @ penguin, please listen to this very recent lecture by John Mersheimer.

This is bigger than simply Russia taking the Donbass and for good reason. This is about the US holding on to supreme dominance in a unipolar world vis a vis NATO and its 800 or so military bases globally. Putin along with China and India have long called for a Multipolar world where power is spread and international disagreements are resolved diplomaticaly through the democratic institution of the UN. The US does not care about democracy or diplomacy, they have acted unilaterally on so many occasions bombing and killling millions of innocent lives.

Watch Putins famous Munich 2007 Speech, one of the best speeches ever. In fact since Putin came to power he has tried numerous times to deveop a cordial relationship with the US. The US are stuck in their hubristic arrogance, times are changing, power is shifting Eastwards. Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, India, China, all these countries/territories admire and respect Putin and for good reason. He has finally stood up to the US and its push to extend NATO to try and keep its unipolar status by military imperialsim.

There is a far right issue in Western Ukraine. Just look up Stepan Bandera, hes venerated in Ukraine, a statue built in his honour, postage stamps, Ukraine even wanted a national holiday in his honour. Look up Volhynia 1943 - 45.

Too much to type but please, get educated and dont follow the crazy western MSM propaganda bent on demonising Putin and Russia.

https://youtu.be/qciVozNtCDM

https://youtu.be/hQ58Yv6kP44

https://youtu.be/Jkb1f5eqUpM

Evraz as others have said is a ftse 100 "primary" listed company (yes we have been demoted to the ftse 250 however that's hardly to last long). Around 75% of the revenues of these listed companies come from abroad, the uk fully understands this dynamic. If the uk were to delist Evraz it would send a terrible message to some of the largest global businesses to comtemplate floating on our exchange or indeed relisting on other exchanges. It really would be an act of cutting of ones nose despite ones face.

Bo Jo in his effort to emulate Churchill attempts to take fast, decisive action when it comes to the global political landscape. He did well with the covid vaccine, now he's playing the moral crusader by imposing harsh sanctions on Russian affiliates. However it would be a disaster if he kicked out Russian companies off our indices. London is still one of the top three major financial centres of the world and it's crucial London is seen as a free market economy, not "communist" when it suits.

Personally, like any sane person, feel tragic regarding Ukraine however the West are by no small measure culpable in escalting and provoking tensions with Putin. This attack on "Russia" and therefore the Russian people is grossly unfair. The repurcussions will affect millions upon millions of ordinary folk already stuggling with the rise in inflation. The political establishment will carry on discussing matters while being chauffer driven to their important meetings and discussing issues over a six course meal with the finest wines.

Evraz shares imo will be unsuspended within the next six months. With the turmoil and volatility in the markets right now, this is the best thing for Evraz.

@ Fair Analyst You make some good points. It may well be the case RA is selling down his share. I don't think so though. I believe the reason why he transferred his shares to become a direct share holder and indeed the reason why Evraz has demerged from its coal business it to attract ESG investors. Mutual funds, ii's, asset managers are all focusing investment in companys that follow the ESG framework particularly in regards to Enviroment.

It seems to me RA is trying to change his persona into being percieved as a respected business man rather than a crony oligarch hence the proceeds of Chelsea FC going to war victims and the sale of his houses.

Could be wrong and we might get an rns stating his sale but why would an astute business man sell his holding at these prices when he is receiving massive cash flow through dividends? Doesn't make sense to me.

Uncertainties holding Tullow back

Ghana tax dispute of c$300-$400 million

Hitec dispute of c$95million

Uganda FID

Strategic partner for Kenya project

Guidance on the infill drilling programme / further information on resolving the complexities at TEN

Hopefully Tullow will announce positive production guidance end of this month and further clarity concerning above issues. If good news we should see the sp re-rate above 60p.

Investors are waiting for feedback in regards to Tullows drilling programme, that’s the key to the whole business plan. If they announce positive news regarding production in the update we should see quite an uptick in share price.

Ahh yes, of course...!!! September is the one to look forward too. Lets hope the current drilling programme is a success and they force loads more oil out of the ground...!!!

Would like to see a drilling schedule for the Orinduik block, preferably Aurituk / Latuk, such a high chance of hitting a gusher there...also with the rise in poo, makes the Joe and Jethroe discoveries more commercially viable. Lots of potential upside to come in the future....

Looking very much forward to 14th July, we should see quite a major write back on our Kenya asset, had been written down massively last year due to poo being downwardly revised from $65 to $60. Should be able to get a much better price when we farm down.

Will be interesting to see at what prices Tullow sold oil over last six months, recall $55 inJan, $62 Feb, we should at these prices smash estimated guidance based on the ten year plan. I estimate even at 60000boed we should generate around $1.4 to $1.5 billion in revenue if the oil price stays where it is. May even get closer to $1.6 billion. Oil price has been a massive tailwind, together with all the cutbacks should see healthy FCF, looking very good indeed...!!!

It's going to take time for certain shorters who have hedged their risk against a possible unsuccessful refinancing to unwind their positions. Patience is key.

No one can predict share price increases however the key metrics look quite positive indeed. Really now depends on Rahuls ability to, as he said increase pressure in the wells to force more oil up to increase production in the near term. No one knows how that will play out but due diligence by petroleum engineers and other experts would have been carried out for investors to take up this bond.

Thanks Miles, btw the last post was spread out and paragraphed but for some reason came out crunched together!

Happy has always been cordial and a gentleman, so what if he has an opposite view? Life would be boring if we all sung the same hymn sheet.

Tullow board must have been in many, many meetings with a cohort of advisors over the last few months. This is the BIG HURDLE though, this is what it comes down to. If they can raise the bonds for the amount then we will most surely see a steep rise in the share price in my view towards a pound. Tullow have been very fortunate with the oil price rise creating a lovely tailwind to help push them along with their new plan.

Hi guys, have been reading this thread for a while, lost loads in sxx, hoping to make up those lost funds in Tullow (made up around half so far). Have a strong conviction Tullow will turnaround, previous management got their forecasts totally wrong as well all know however key points:The very quick deleveraging prior to covid resulting in huge reductions in G&AThe reduction in debt with asset sales The very low cost producing fields in Ghana with opex around $9 bpdThe Kenya asset with proven oil reservesThe exploration license in Guyana, hopefully in the mid term they will drill by Hammerhead (Aurituk and Latuk), CoS seems very high.I can recall when Premier OIL were engaged in a major refinancing structure, although a different macro economic environment, when they succeeded the share price rose exponentially to around £1.50 from a low of around 23p. In regards to your questions JJ, from memory Rahul said production would ramp up by 8000bpd on each of two in fill wells and another 6000bpd I believe with water injection. Cannot remember if he said that on capital markets day or the recent investor presentation. He said drilling would complete on average 70 days for each well. So possibly looking at 21000bpd increase, taking total to around 75000 to 80000bpd.Ranj