Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Have a good Christmas TBTT. It's been great trading comments with you over the years.

Who would have thought we would pin our tails on the rhodium donkey and find our fortunes? Up 175% year to date! I wonder how high it can go. 5 years ago I had never even heard of rhodium!

Let's hope 2021 is the year of chrome!!

Q4 production is due on the 28th January. You won't see a special dividend, they changed the policy earlier in the year. You'll have to wait until March 3 for the results to see what they decide on the final dividend payment.

The maximum they can pay under the new policy is 100% of FCF. FCF consensus is $800m, which is a max of $1.70/share. They have already paid out 40c so the maximum payout would probably be $1.30 per share roughly 96p/share. Consensus final dividend looks to be around 66p per share. 2020 is a big year for capex which may explain that number.

https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/shareholder-centre/dividends/

...going swoosh. I think its the THS share price. The MMs are desperate for stock and have been raising the bid to try and tempt us. But its not working. Cant see any sells and the large seller hasn't released any for days now.

With 100p in the rearview mirror my next pitstop is 120p, the highest point going back to April 2018. But in April 2018 the 6E PGM basket was $950/oz compared to $2,650/oz now.

THS has much higher realisable revenue per ounce. I think it has something to do with the proportion of current arisings and the oxidation of the feedsource. Tailings are heavily oxidised which I think makes it more difficult to remove the chrome.

I could see THS doing something like this. If this is successful then I see Sedibelo coming back to the market in the next 12-18 months

https://www.kellprocess.com/solutions-applications

Oh reality why do you torment me.. doesn't surprise me though. The reason why the price is rising is the same reason the margin is low.. the long refining time has caused the metal to be locked up after the Amplats production outage. Although I believe there are some significant demand forces at play as well

That was your call Visitor :-) Its up 53% this month. That's a nice little bit of extra revenue on 7,000 ounces. If it doubles again people might start to get really excited. Given the tiny market size (only 3 or 4 tonnes are mined annually) anything could happen

Homewares sales are flying, as seen in the trading update from DFS today. DFS mainly sells sofas but is being impacted by similar trends with Eve... pent up demand, strong home sales, manufacturing operating at capacity and some impact of disruption at the ports

https://www.investegate.co.uk/dfs-furniture-plc--dfs-/rns/pre-close-interim-trading-update/202012220700024440J/

Gango.. you're back. Bullish target... nice, round and easy to remember. Yes agreed we have a few tailwinds now supporting growth:

- lockdown is good for business
- although early days, the weather thus far is turning out to be very mild and relatively dry, which is also good for business. Last year was badly affected by the weather so here's hoping for a new year without floods or high speed winds
- the click and collect process seems to be working very efficiently. They incurred some rehandling and other costs earlier in the year but by now they will have optimized their distribution centre stock levels

This is fun... now an additional $5m in EBITDA per annum just from Iridium's 35% rise this month

Hi TBTT, Good to be in cash today (which I'm not)

You should get on the phone to JMAT, BASF or Umicore and order some ingots!! There are some physical ingots if you look for them but the spread is eye popping. Looks like these are sold out though

https://www.rwmmint.com/products/iridium

Interesting to see rhodium action over the next month. Anglo got its ACP back on line much quicker than expected but Rh has increased since then

Has anyone spied the iridium price action recently? Sometimes I get a little over excited about the by products but there is some talk about an impending shortage given the Amplats refinery downtime, the long processing cycle and the small market size. Iridium is even more scarce than rhodium, with annual supply only 40% of the total rhodium demand.

It represents 4.4% of the THS prill split which at 160kox is only 7,000 ounces. At the start of the month the price was $1,670/oz and now its $2,050/oz on JMAT, a jump of 23%. While that is only an additional $2.5m of Revenue/EBITDA p.a. if it follows a similar path to rhodium it could make a meaningful contribution to profit. 2.5 years ago rhodium was around the same price as iridium now.

Something to keep an eye on or perhaps just something fanciful to entertain me on down days like this ¯\_(?)_/¯

I don't know why it decided to move today but I'm not complaining. That was sensible last post Gango hopefully you've been patiently waiting like me. Given the support that Covid has given fishing and that ANG is the market leader is a little surprising that this has taken so long to get past pre covid levels. And this even despite 400,000 shares sold recently by PDMR.

I just had a re read of that trading update from earlier this month, it really was quite perky. For a market cap of £55m, with £17 of that in net cash, that puts ANG on an EV/EBITDA of around 10x 20210 EBITDA. Its a little punchy but considering the turnaround from a £0.5m loss, the revenue growth and the consolidation and scale opportunities that come with being the market leader we could see improved cash generation and significant EBITDA growth in 2022

I think I just spotted the first 100p sell since November 2019, 6 days early. Thanks Phoevus. Looking forward to another 100p in 2021!!

The Chinese can have it for the right price... I don't think they would be interested in that though. Its too small. They would want something far bigger with a full smelter and refining complex. There has already been a full feasibility study for Volspruit in the past, they need to refresh this with new capital costs and NPV. Then tell us how they are going to get rid of it. I'd gladly take $60m for it

Hi TBTT, Yes I agree. I have been shooting down takeover talk on this board for years now. I've always thought the chances of SLP being taken out were very low because of the shareholding and the nature of the agreement/relationship.

I suspect this agreement is a little wishy washy and no wants too much scrutiny of it, and a surely a potential acquirer would need some access to Samancor to get a feel for what the long term current arisings would look like. Saying that I'm sure it would a pretty accretive deal to be bought by Amplats, just from shifting the refining to them from Implats.

I have always wondered why Samancor or IMR didn't take out the other 80% of SLP a couple of years ago. I don't know if Samancor could afford the £200-odd million to take them out now, I imagine their finances to be a little precarious, nor would they want to at what could be the top of the cycle

That could be a tidy solution gkb47. Either way they now hold roughly 20% which is pretty similar to what they held before

I have always viewed this holding as something holding back any takeover of SLP. If they are indeed reducing then I think the chance of a takeover (albeit slim) does increase. Although this depends on the transferability of the services and supply agreement between SLP and Samancor

It looks like they sold 3m shares and haven't filled in that field. I don't think SLP has anything to do with it, relies on the holding company to correctly notify

It is a bit of a worry when our only supplier, its shareholders and their families are at the helm of 2 delisted companies and are the subject of tax and SFO investigations!! But I think its factored into the SP

@ashikshetty1 not sure what you are referring to, could you expand a little?

Yup, IMR is part of the old ENRC mining group, owned by a few Kazakh businessmen. Its used to be one of the biggest mining companies and controls Samancor, the chrome in Kaz and some other assets. Its an incredibly murky organisation, shrouded in controversy, there have been two delistings of the group. I believe IMR also has some other shareholders, including a large Japanese shareholder which owns around 20% from memory.

Samancor has a fairly interesting history, including its relationship with this guy Danko Koncar who was part of the consortium that bought it from BHP/Anglo. I think he got kicked out in the end but then started Ruukki, that random Finnish group which tried to buy SLP back in 2009.