Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Not showing on here but I can see it on LSE website... £340k sell at 1500 at 86.50. Weird that it was so far above the bid and you could still sell decent amounts at the same time for a slightly better price. Looks like it was being worked just as we were discussing this. Good to see the price is still inching higher anyway

You can sell a decent amount at 86.56, well above the current bid of 84.45, so if there is a sell then its at a higher level than the last one. Saying that there is a lot of buying activity, and some sizeable amounts as well, so my guess is that big sell is rapidly being churned through. And I think that having that stock frees up some shares for the MM price discovery and getting a better scope of demand.

I already bought a few more on Monday so I'll have to tap out this time

Looks like there could be more coming...

There were some questions down below about the head of marketing...

The article mentions Andy Boddy eve Sleep Commercial Director. Cheryl has a marketing background but no doubt this chap has some say as well. LinkedIn profile here

https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyboddy/?originalSubdomain=uk

There is a post on his feed which has a short presentation with one interesting fact that I haven’t seen before, which is the number of mattresses and pillows sold by Eve in the 6 months to June 2020

16282 Mattresses
12886 Pillows

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/44476-basket-case-zimbabwe-still-prospective-whilst-globes-economics-pressures-pgm-supply/

It certainly seems that way doesn't it Citydesk...

Looks like some funds and hedge funds are rapidly backtracking and trying to unwind their 'covid stock exposure, regardless of the quality or the fundamentals of the business. I bet some of them got in on the hype and are sitting on big fat losses as well. Most of them perform poorly. I suppose its pretty hard for them to be holding a little stock like LOOP when the market is racing and large caps like Shell are putting on 5% in a day. I bet they're all trying to release funds to tip into their leveraged accounts so they can chase some of that action.

Unfortunately the lack of any guidance and relative silence from the company since the mid-July trading update exacerbates the rotation from a company that did well in the restrictions (and might not do so well in the aftermath) to those that have been beaten down but with huge recovery potential, better analyst coverage and more frequent market communications. You have the market expecting a big reduction in revenue, yet LOOP are seemingly oblivious on a hiring spree, building that cost base.

I can see both arguments really but often the best thing for us little guys to do is.... nothing

And to buy at 4.99! I've technically just hit blue

D-G great couple of finds there! Thanks for sharing. Very sensible words from the CFO, how the times have changed for EVE

Wise words TBTT. I'm reading a book at the moment which seems very apt, Misbehaving by Richard H Thaler which hypothesises all the various reasons why humans behave 'irrationally' according to economic models.

A deep value, small cap, illiquid stock like this needs to be a screaming buy for anyone to get excited, especially when you have a vaccine-induced market rally happening and the likes of Shell and Barclays are putting on 3%+ per day. I say a 40% FCF yield is a screaming buy.

I'm guessing a dividend of around 4c. They will have to restore it with this result surely. Consensus is for much lower but they have committed to paying out at least 15% of NPAT which historically equates to a DPS of 25% of EPS. They should be in a healthy net cash position at September and even more so by now

Looks like this is going to pop. Buys coming in thick and fast. Looks like it will be a day of very strong volume. I find it interesting to observe the market reaction after the fact to something you could have worked out was coming weeks ago. Yesterday there seemed to be a tick up in volume of PI sized trades probably in anticipation of the result. Well done to those who made a quick 5-10% already. That £79k sell yesterday for 79p near the close was interesting timing. Just goes to show that funds often know as little as us PIs or they need to sell for reasons independent of the value of the investment

A doozy indeed :-) Consensus EPS looks to be 26c for 2021 but my model is spitting out some numbers that are so high they can't be right & I wouldn't dare share them. Just waiting to see some cash flow, net debt and cost information when results come out. I expect management will be pretty confident about it all

Morning TBTT,

Cant say how the SP will react if at all but the implications for 2021 financial performance are fascinating...
If 2020 EPS is between 16 and 17c and H120 EPS was 3.6c this means H220 was between 12.4c and 13.4c.
Doubling this would give 2021 EPS between 25c and 27c. However production is guided to be 15-20% higher than 2020 and PGM prices are already 40% over H220 in H1 21... 2021 is going to be a big one

I had expected 17.3c so this gives me comfort around my 2020 EBITDA estimate of around 100m and moving into a net cash position

Seems like its getting pretty tight again. Only needs £10k of trading to move the SP significantly. I'm certain it will move with some velocity (either way) when there is some news

Good article TBTT. Well balanced presenting all the viewpoints. If SA had presented a concurrent electricity strategy maybe they wouldn't be in this mess. It seems for now maintaining ferrochrome production in the short term is contingent on producers supporting the domestic coal mining industry and in the medium to longer term by generating their own electricity through renewable projects.

In other news, another SA ratings agency downgrade for South Africa. How is the ZAR is so strong?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-ratings/painful-downgrades-will-raise-south-africas-borrowing-costs-minister-says-idUKKBN2810FF

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-south-africa-to-bb-outlook-negative-20-11-2020

So Orion is pretty much out now. Amazing that they could have churned through their 7% holding over the last month or two even while the SP was grinding steadily higher. I think we will see the impact of the end of this significant overhang very quickly

Hi Centamin, It sounds like your own experience with Teams has given you a solid case of confirmation bias. There have been a lot of posts on the board with some arguments for the sustainability of LOOP revenue. I don't think it can be laid out any more succinctly for you. You seem quite confused about the nature of the Teams deal so the best place to start would be to read through the announcements of the last 6 months, including the half year report. There is also a very good investor presentation at the link below which outlines the link between Teams and Loop

https://loopup.com/en/investors/presentations/

Thanks for sharing that GeneralM...Some pretty whiffy journalism there...Karo is a nice option to have but I don't see it contributing anything to the Tharisa valuation. A project that size would be difficult in any part of the world, let alone Zimbabwe.

First chrome has indeed been processed from Salene chrome in Zimbabwe in 2020

But I don't believe Tharisa's performance has anything to do with Zimbabwe

Interesting result from a Twitter survey

https://twitter.com/ValueStockGeek/status/1330653909820592130

I just noticed that lead has had 9 days in a row of positive price movements

All 3 metals looking good today. Plenty of positive sentiment towards me. I took a few more at 190, CAML is always the last to move