Member Info for r7632

I think Ganfeng buying in and M&G following suit are good recommendations for BCN. Better than a Broker forecast.

It should all become clearer in the next few months. So sit tight and await the news that will re-rate the share price.

The China situation is way worse than the government there is letting on.I

With Tesla GigaFactory 3 now in Production producing excellent long range Electric Vehicles at competitive prices I can see uptake of EV in China taking off again. A great product will drive demand as it has in USA, and since 2019 Europe. Just look at the percentage of Premium Vehicles sales Tesla has taken from BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar and the average mainstream VW, Honda, Toyota manufacturers.

Look out for Tesla china sales figures and production as they ramp up production over the next few months.

With the German Gigafactory 4 producing the Tesla Model Y in 12-18 Months the Euro Car manufacturers are going to be in big trouble unless they can start producing competitive EVs. And what have we seen - Merc can't produce the EQ, VW can't produce the ID, Kia can't supply the E- Nero because of lack of batteries. Hyundai Kona Electric can't be bought for lack of production.

When they sort this out demand for Lithium will soar.

Is that a good sign or a bad sign

There is lots more in that article. ----

We think that 150 gigawatt hours, that is to say a European market share of around 25%, is a realistic goal #

So Europe expects to need 600 Gigawatt Hours of Batteries.

After having accumulated a worrying delay in the field of electric vehicle batteries, the European industry finally seems to have woken up. Projects are now flourishing all over the continent, particularly in Germany. As every month Automobile-propre has compiled for you the latest news from the industry.

I reckon the Tesla Model 3 will become the best selling Electric car as Volumes delivered to Europe Increase. Then it will be eclipsed by the Model Y. Compared to the opposition you get greater range, performance and Autopilot. And with thermal battery management a Battery that outlasts Combustion engines with little maintenance. Making overall cost of ownership very competitive. Finally they are none polluting of our cities of harmful chemicals, gases and noise.

So 18650 looks more flamable than 21700. Means Model 3 safer that Model S/X if they go up in flames. Which is rare. Not something I'm worried about after previously driving ICE cars for 40 Years. Petrol and hot Engine/Exhaust don't mix well. Seen many ICE cars in flames at side of road.

1.Lithium extracted from ore is more suitable for batteries of the next generations
2. Lithium extraction in salt lakes is deemed difficult to calculate, since the evaporation process can be severely affected by rain, snow and natural contaminants in the material, and the impact on the environment (for example, on the groundwater level) can be potentially problematic
3. “lithium hydroxide”, on the other hand, is commercially more attractive (there is one less production step as compared to salar production), more stable to extract, easier to scale and generally more sustainable

I see BCN comparing favourably with all current, and planned, Lithium production.

BCN Lithium is also quick to market, in the order of a week from Extraction to Lithium vs Months/Years of evaporation for the Salars.

BCN Presentation Slides on 27-11-2019 state Hanwa 5.53%. So that is definitive. Any Threshold change notifications are compulsory on main Market. I would imagine they are on Aim as well.

Takeaway 16:38 in - Ganfeng to produce EPC by end of first Quarter, and then into Build phase

Bacanora Minerals (30%) and Cadence Minerals (70%).

Uhhm

Shouldn't that read

Bacanora Minerals (70%) and Cadence Minerals (30%).

BCN 100% on La Ventana Cncession
BCN 70% El Sauz and EL Fleur Consessions (30% REM)

Anyone know what concession Stage 1 and Stage 2 are?

Yes I can see it dropping . Then a Price Monitoring period followed by more shares issued at a lower Price.

But in the end the project will be funded and hopefully the share price will settle in an upwards trajectory.

Sooner the better. But we are waiting on Ganfeng's definitive costings and project plan in say another 3-6 months.

Timings always seem 6 months away. Is it not 6 months since Ganfeng original offer of investment How long have they actually been doing anything towards that?

Really can't this coming to Production when they say unless they put more effort in.

But if we get to the VSA Price target of £1.12 I'll be happy. Even if that is in 2021/2022.

RustinCohle - Yes
dan1nat1 - Don't they do the price monitoring thing that we have seen before Ganfeng bought in, and again before M&G bought more

Hanwa bought 12,333,261 shares at 82.5 pence each.

Have right to maintain its 10% equity interest with an option to increase its stake to 19.9%.

Originall Offtake up to 100% of lithium during stage one, option of off-take tonnage by up to 100% at stage two

Ganfeng taking 50% of stage one. So Hanwa can only take 50%

No off take left for State of Oman is they wanted to resurrect deal?

Is anyone expecting the Oman Investment to be resurrected?

Apr 1, 2019 - Bacanora Lithium PLC (LON:BCN) remains in talks with the State General Reserve Fund of Oman (SGRF) over a US$65mln strategic

It would be interesting to see how VSA came up with a target of 112p. In particular Number of Shares in issue at this target --> Market Cap when fully funded.

Also Hanwa have 5.53%. Have they ever stated they want 19.9%?

Have Igneous and D&A Income stated any target %?

Crystal Ball anyone.

Circular Arithmetic

If M&G now own 19.9% of the Increased number of shares Ganfeng now own 25.7% and Hanwa 17.1 If new shares are issued to Make the percentages they want to own -----

ganfeng 29.99%...
hanwa 19.9%...
m&g 19.9%... ’

Where by all three have to buy more shares to Maintain their percentages.

Funding Gap is closing ?? Dilution Yes.

But VSA Price target dropped only 2p - If another 10% shares issued to bring the % above then another 2-3p drop in Price target to say 109p. But also another £7 Million or so into the kitty.

Ultimately the Project is funded and much more likely to see Price Target reached.

More dilution ahead - but the value of the resource will be released.

Highlight ---->>>
Our valuation is calculated on a fully diluted basis and therefore our target price is only marginally impacted
by the placing and we reduce it by 1.8% to 112p/sh

More confirmation, if any was needed, that this project has Backers - who want this to go forward to production and who see a value much higher than 25p - otherwise they would never have bought in (more) at this price.

Lets assume funding complete by June 2020 and Private Investors own 40% currently.

PI own maybe 20% of increased number of shares. Some one work out what the actual amount may be after Equity Raise and all the money is found to complete build out to phase one production of 17.5 K Tonnes of LCE per annum.

So PI would own 20% of BCN now with NVP of > $1 Billion -> Presumably more fairly valued when in production.

What are we expecting share price might be?

20% of $1Billion is a lot more than 40% of $50Million. Like 10 Times more!

So even is there is large dilution a smaller (Half) percentage of larger piece of pie is still good?

4 - BCN can't use all their current free cash. They have their own running costs to meet for 2-3 years as well as a potential $30m bill to exercise the Solarworld option on the other 50% of Zinwald.

So BCN already paid for 50% of Zinwald - was that $30Million? And BCN Market Cap is $50 Million. Doesn't seem a fair valuation as Zinwald is third of NPV of BCN.

Almost like Zinwald was a huge cost - but added no Market Value to BCN.

And if BCN pays $30Million for the other 50% of Zinwald and then floats it off next Year what do we expect to be added to BCN Cash Pile/ Net Worth? $60 Spent on Zinwald and thats more than the current Market Cap of BCN as a whole?