Member Info for Quickdraw18

Van v may you answer me this.

Do you forsee Avacta having any issues with clinical validation?

See below context which has been validated by Prof Jon Deeks this morning
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1361973306635792386?s=19

Avacta ran only 56 samples of which 26 were postive and selected for their high viral load which will have boosted their sensitivity results.

Is the first time I've seen a company present results against prescribed CT value (Jon Deeks equally surprised)

The Innova test had a sensitivity of 66.7% at CT of <25 which looks like a truer representation, than Avacta's results based against CT of 26 (high viral loads)

Before the UK pulled its Antigen LFT tender as it received no bidders it required the following number of samples to be submitted for appraisal:

. Phase 2 (15 postive & 75 negative samples)

. Phase 3 (200 postives & 1,000 negatives)

. Avacta tested "30 positive samples... with Ct values of 26 and below"

. Avacta selectively chose just high viral load samples

. Even ODX's troubled antibody DHSC evaluation used 42 positives samples out of 1, 995 negatives

. Also of note Avacta's postive to negative sample ration at (26/30) is significantly lower than Government's (15/75 Phase ii) and (200/1,000 phase iii).

With such a"relatively small initial clinical validation" and LFT not expected "to get the product CE marked around the end of this quarter" enabling sales for research purposes then full clinical evaluation using testing made on final production configuration it seems like Avacta have a considerable way to go

lol you know so little :-)

Feel folk had their expectations far to high for an interview with a tiddly Twitter stock pumpy account. I do question the choice of going with them.

Would have been better had Numis interviewed them or The Novacyt Insider.

That said, there are lots of highlights for newer or casual investors:

#Novacyt Past & present:

. Manufacturing capacity ?? by over 100 times

. Supplying products to over 130 countries

. Developed 12 new products supporting labs & clinicians

. Made strategically important acquisitions, key IP & expanded #NCYT core capabilities & products

#NCYT Future:

. Build on extensive product range

. Leverage core business via increased reputation & infrastructure

. Increased interest for diagnostics

. New infectious disease products

. Value added acquisitions

. Leader in ???? molecular diagnostics

. Long term value??

I'm very casual thanks, some fun while we await our share of £22b PCR Tender.

You don't have this good fortune sewing as the £20b LFT tender was pulled as no one bid.

You guys may laugh at Jon Deeks. The ODX BB did as well. All fun and games until your contract expires.

What happened to CONDOR approval?

Why using unnamed EU organisation to approve initial batch?

How long until you make your first batch on production equipment for full clinical approval?

How many months will this take?

Why has it taken a year of COVID for you to test 26 clinical samples with high viral loads?

Is anyone capable of answering a direct question on here?

Could you talk us through the process Soder?

When they did the Liverpool trail there were significant performance issues with people undertaking their own sample. From recall results of self testing were 1/3 lower

Would you fancy a poorly trained 18 yr old part time bar staff member testing you or even worse an untrained member of the public?

lol comparing Avacta a company that's been trying to find success since 1998 with Amazon who succeed at every phase of their development cycle, growing from books, to videos, consumer goods and then spun out its cloud computing which it developed internally go host its own services

Which internally developed products does Avacta have after 23 yrs?

Answer zero

You are not the messiah

Has Deeks been schooled or did ODX's test fail to receive DHSC approval because they fudged their data? 85% instead of the 98% sensitivity they reported?

Here he is calling out Avacta's lack of clarity.

For those who didn't understand the reasoning to my posting of Avacta's subsidiaries (11 that I've found) and 33 directors resignations it's all down to company track record

If you looked closely you would have noticed the resignations mostly occurred in 2006>2007 and 2011<2012 when it looks like past business model failed. For example animal testing around 2011 (check share price crash) and 2017 Zika test disappearing

On the website there is no mention to the first 13 yrs of failed business models on in Key Investor page or their origination as animal bio company in 1999. Page just says they came to AIM in 2006.

. 2012 purchased Affimers, then focused on reagents, then tests and therapy. We shall see what becomes of the latest pivot #tranparency

Soder who would be processing these daily LFT tests that the Gov admit only find 30% of cases and no professionals are advising to be used to allow access to services?

Even owners of pubs and nightclubs are saying LFT's will be not suitable to use

Where would they analyse the tests, adding the required reagents. Where will possible customers wait for their 30 min tests and will they be spreading events in these waiting areas?

How often has Boris got it right?

I agree that a distinction should be made between the potential of LFT's, the fledgling status of some of the UK companies and the maturity of the PCR market with its installed instrument base and logistics.

Thermo Fisher are adding PCR manufacturing capacity in India as one of the largest diagnostics companies they are well placed to asses the longevity of PCR testing.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/thermo-fisher-scientific-launches-rt-pcr-test-kits-designed-and-made-in-india-6528951.html

Pre-print is very interesting, amazing what you find when you dig into the detail.

So is the UKRTC hiding behind accuracy now? To sensitive to talk about sensitivity?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250777v1.full.pdf

IPL75 funny you think your a step ahead of me.
You've been holding this baby since spring or so. I've been holding a Novacyt since late Feb.

I can understand clinical analysis, you can abuse people.

I also understand corporate structures and risk management

CT 26, CT 25. Its all maths.

Anyway don't listen to me. Prof Jon Deeks was right about ODX antibody assessment and we saw how that failed.

https://youtu.be/L9Bq4sOnfQE

Timster this is where your issue is at. You can not discern my negative post.

I can understand being confused by the wording of the Avacat results, they did a fantastic job writing the RNS.

But does look like the Sensitivity will be a lot closer to 66.7% than 96.7% which Avacta are reporting

Game changer jon Deeks covered this exact same point off in this webinar. Nice graphs in there. Good to see you have also made the connection

https://t.co/g0RWeBq6At

(Correct me if I am wrong but Innova test shows a clinical sensitivity of 66.7% in the <25 Ct range from the same Liverpool study. Yet they even had less +ve samples within this Ct range (26 to Avacta's 30).)

Who's that I see peeping from behind the lab station?

tecbadger how has this statement aged?

You have more faith than your directors. Not sure if it's wise to have more faith than directors.

ODX sales:
William Rhodes - sold 300,000 (100%
Jeremy Millard - 166,666 (24%)
Jag Grewal - sold 210,000 (47%)
Kieron Harbinson - sold 1,115,000 (67.9%)

Let the math do the taking sometimes

BCG analyzed testing demand outlook in USA, France, Germany, Italy and Spai

Multiple scenarios for the US and four EU countries point to a continued need for COVID-19 testing through 2024, with demand peaking in the seasonally affected first quarters of 2021 and 2022

Even if vaccines prove to be highly effective, the need to test people for COVID-19 will continue, for at least five reasons:

. Diagnosis and Triage
. Population Screening
. Safety Screening
. Employer-Contracted Workforce Testing
. Testing for Immunity

TESTING DEMAND DRIVERS:
. Epidemiology of the COVID-19

(Novacyt's patented SNPsig® providing alternative to next generation #sequencing & S gene target failure. Enabling scientists to analyse & monitor relevant genomic mutations on-site, within a matter of hours. Available to order today

https://twitter.com/PrimerdesignLtd/status/1360288094029815808?s=19)

. Impact of the vaccines
.Impact of therapeutics
. Government policy

https://www.bcg.com/en-in/publications/2021/why-covid-19-testing-remains-a-crucial-part-of-the-response-to-the-pandemic?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=esp&utm_campaign=covid&utm_description=featured_insights&utm_topic=vaccine&utm_geo=global&utm_content=202102&utm_usertoken=CRM_5e3f354a22837c4691b0d18f2d9dccb043047c62

Go for it sjpw

5 of 6 of the largest investors in Avacta reduced share holdings since original raise at 20p.

At the time only 2.2% institutional owner ship which is incredibly low, wonder why share didn't attract many ii's a history dating as far back as Avacta's. Maybe they didn't fancy it as a pet project
(not update below since August)

Granted 3% of company since 15/05.
7.5m shares, today valed at £7.8m.
Is a lot given Avacta raised £48.75m (16%)

Looking at TR1 sales Lombard and Premier Miton Group played the stock through raising.

Lombard Odier Asset Management: (over 3 weeks)
14/4 - 6.43% to 10.8%
27/4 - 11.81% to 9.5%
5/5 - 9.5% to 4.8%
27/08 -?

. Increase holding by 84% from 20p to £1
. Decreased by 59% from £1 to £1.16.

Premier Miton Group: 4 months
27/4 - 4.87% to 8.13%
11/08 - 8.13% to 4.6%
27/08 -?

J O Hambrk Capital:
22/4 - 9.23% to 4.9%
27/08 -?

Unicorn Asset management:
24/4 - 3.41% to 2.88%
27/08 -?

Confier Management:
10/06 - 3.54% New position
27/08 - 3.54%

Bollie Gifford:
12/06 - 5.12% to below 5% (not sure why not recorded as smaller holdings)
27/08 - 4.62%

. No mention first 13 yrs of failed business model on in Key Investor page or their origination as animal bio company in 1999. Page says they came to AIM in 2006.

. 2012 purchased Affimers, then focused on reagents, then tests and therapy.

. 2018 purchased pre|CISION for blood toxicity conditioning.

. Main two arms of business Affimers and pre|CISION were bought in.

https://avacta.com/investors/key-information

I'm sure you lot knew all of this

Avacta's companies
. Nov 1999 - Avacta Animal Health Limited
. Apr 2003 - Avacta Group PLC
. Jan 2004 - Avacta Limited
. May 2004 - Avacta Health Limited
. Sep 2004 - AVACTA ANALYTICAL LIMITED
. May 08 - Avacta Life Sciences Limited
. Nov 2011 - Avacta Group Trustee Limited
. March 2013 - AVACTA NOTTINGHAM ASSET LIMITED
. March 13 - Affimer Limited

Displaced:
. May 19 - Avacta Nottingham Assets Limited
. May 19 - Avacta Health Limited

Acquisitions:
. 2010 - ReactivLab Limited
. 2009 - Curidium Medica Limited
URIDIUM MEDICA LIMITED
. 2009 - Theragenetics Limited

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Resigned Directors:
* Last Avacta business unit resignation date listed. Prior Avacta business unit resignations may apply
* (No. roles, Directorships or Secretarial roles)
* Term spent with Avacat business units

. July 01 - Dale MUSGROVE (2) 1.5 yrs
. July 01 - Mark Alister VAREY (4) 2 yrs
. Sep 02 - Allan CHARLESWOTH (4)
1 yr
. Sep 2003 - Norman MOLYNEUX (49) 5 months
. Dec 04 - Peter David George COUSINS (2) 2.5 yrs
. July 2005 - Brian Paul BENNETT
. July 2006 - Colin Ernest DAVIES
. July 2006 - Keith William SALISBURY
. Apr 2006 - Kui Man YEUNG
. Aug 2006 - Daron LEE
. Aug 2006 - Mark Anthony SHIELDS
. Mar 07 - Andrew James NAYLOR (2) 3 yrs
. Sep 2007 - Alan Arthur BRAIN (2)
. June 07 - Gillian Ruth HART (2) 2 yrs
. Dec 2007 - Michael John BAILEY
. Dec 2007 - Graham HAN**** (2) 2.5 yrs
. Dec 07 - John GRAHAM (8) 8 yrs
. Dec 08 - Roy Stafford JOHNSON (5) - 4 yrs
. Jan 09 - Richard Edward Winter HALLIWELL (6) 7 yrs
. Jan 09 - Beverley Clare HARRISON (13) 8.5 yrs
. Jan 2011 - Gwynfor Owen HUMPHREYS
. March 2011 - Kurt Justin BALDWIN (3)
. Match 2011 - Christopher Robert DRYDEN (1) 39 months
. March 2011 - Russell HODGETTS
. March 2011 - Barry PORTER
. March 2011 - Simon WEBSTER
. Nov 2011 - Anthony William ROBARDS
. Jan 12 - Michael Alexander DALRYMPLE (2) 22 months
. Jan 12 - Terence Howard RABBITTS (4) 21 months
. Dec 15 - Timothy James SYKES (96) 8.5 yrs
. Jan 2016 - Anthony William ROBARDS (25) 4 yrs 3 months
. Jan 17 - Paul KO FERRIGNO (1) 9 yrs
. March 17 - Janice Elaine HOGG (7) 16 yrs
. Dec 17 - Richard Craig Alan SLATER (70) 3)