Member Info for Quady

And you have a good weekend as well Earthling.

Earthling did I not say all that, what's your point please.

Good afternoon addicknt, I agree that we observe NM in his presentations, and that he has consistently said he is taking this to production.
I would also say that the actions, that he has taken up to now also count as observation, or evidence.
Also I would say that the way the distribution of shares are allocated, adds to a takeover bid being harder to achieve.
The timing of appointments, when required, and the timing of the CGP offer are again evidence.

However as I have said before, I can see that your argument of a takeover, also holds water.
So the CGP takeover, BHP may want it all in Solgolds hands. ( harder to obtain CGP afterwards)
BHP may make an offer, but it will be lowball I think, maybe 60-80 pence, maybe a pound.
But I won't go into detail, as have already outlined in an earlier post today, why I don't think that holds water.
Whatever the outcome, we have an interesting year ahead, All the best.

Good afternoon Talatum, my understanding is at PEA stage, 10% of NPV is about right, but again if anyone knows different, please correct me.

Sorry Talatum, I didn't answer all your question.
Yes we have the 2.7 Billion in the calculation, but that is part of the NPV valuation, or at least should be.
So 3-4 pounds is the valuation for full value today.
I cannot predict price in 5 years, as who knows what will be the state of our other discoveries, but I think we can agree, that part is also looking good.

Hello Talatum, you have more or less summed up, what I have said.
My point is no one is going to pay full price in a sell by agreement, so we are left with a hostile bid, this may well happen, but we won't get full value, or anywhere near, Only production releases value. I hope you are in good health Talatum, and you are referring to your age, in which case look after yourself.
NM has said that we will have exit points along the way, so you may get the price you are after. All the best.

Hello Earthling, also hope you are well.
Really no need to add in my opinion, as we all know that anything on these boards, are indeed our opinions.

You are still not listening to what I am saying, I neither favor a buyout or production.
I state what I believe will be the likely outcome, based on the evidence we have.
That is what makes this board interesting, is the sharing of information and peoples views.
I am neither swayed by a larger consensus or being in the minority. Sometimes my opinions are mainstream, sometimes not.
If you believe that a major, would give full value, please present, your arguments why, so that they can be held up to scrutiny, just as mine are. All the best.

Exactly Miagi, It's just mad. I take it, your in the mind of this EGM is never going to happen. All the best.

Hi DBW, it's an interesting question, I believe if we obtain CGP, then going to production is even more likely, as we obtain the 7.6% shares in Solgold. Which I imagine we could keep in treasury, this would give those extra votes to the BOD.
We also own 100% of Alpala, this makes fund raising to go to production easier, but really of no consequence.
Lastly, it makes a takeover less likely because the bid would have to be full value or near to full value. If we do get a PFS valuing us over 9 billion dollars, that's a bid of 3-4 pounds a share.
No one is going to pay that, so we will not get a bid by consensus.
So we are left we a hostile bid.
Once we accept that it will be a hostile bid, you have to look at the distribution of who holds what.
So we would have 27-28 %, between NM, Solgold treasury, DGR and Tenstar.
Newcrest wont sell 13%
BHP or someone, would have to mop up a lot of other holdings to take control, I don't see that happening.
So we are left with taking this to production, and a share price higher than 4 pounds a share, when we ship our first concentrate.

Exactly ByronBayGold, the offer we are making is reasonable, it values Alpala, on a basis, alongside the market cap of Solgold. They want the Alpala premium now. Well bad luck, you get the Solgold shares, and get the Alpala reward, when the rest of us do.
I do believe the Solgold offer, made our position unambiguous, as if we hadn't made the offer, someone may have made a low ball offer for CGP. No one will bid higher than us.

Hi Miagi, agreed, the point I was alluding too, was that, you thought a major player might bid for CGP. that would give CGP what they want. I agree their leverage is almost zero, unless we are missing something, or their is another development. I also think, the fact that the offer to purchase CGP, expires before BHP is released from it's standstill agreement, has scuppered CGP's sale to anyone else. All the best.

Good morning Miagi, ask yourself a question. Why if the Solgold offer is so bad, their hasn't been a flood of offers for CGP. It's because, nobody wants it on the Terms of the 15% holding of ENSA. Only Solgold will bid for CGP.
Ask yourself, why would CGP, threaten to take out the Solgold board, after the Solgold offer has expired. It makes no sense. This EGM, will not take place.
I think they are trying to make themselves attractive to another suitor. They are deluded, if they think BHP, will buy CGP, after 15th October, and subsequently their share of ENSA. That would just mean, that they would have to pay more for Solgold, as 15% of ENSA, gives them no say, over the development of Alpala, which is what this is all about. The PFS is going to happen, FN funding is going to happen, The interesting bit, is what happens to CGP. Not long to wait for this part to play out, once BHP say not interested, there will be no EGM.

Thank you Colonel, Very precise summing up. It's going to be interesting. As I said at the start, no one is going to bid for Alpala, apart from us, for so many reasons.
I would appreciate your and anyone else's thoughts, on the CGP offer by Solgold.
Does the offer preclude them selling their 7.6 % Solgold holding on the market, and then taking our offer.
If they were to sell all the Solgold shares, give out a special dividend, and so dispose of the cash, where does that leave our offer. Does it get reduced.

Good morning Italian, I think you will find that Solgold does not have first rights to purchase CGP, I believe it's first rights to purchase the 15%, of ENSA. All the best.

Good morning Schlemiel, he is serious about going to production. He is slowly putting in the people required, and only when required. He has Ingo sorting out the finance, and working towards a PFS, and DFS.

Thank you addicknt, I think BP will fall in price before it goes up, but will keep a look out for Shell as well. Cheers.

Hi addicknt, I think this is a good move for BP, but it's a huge business. and a huge shift, I just put BP on my watch list.

Just off topic, while waiting for news, BP, have halted gas and oil exploration, and are committed to selling off, part of their Gas and Oil business. They are going to invest more into renewable's. Hence Copper maybe in demand, in a shorter period of time, than maybe people have thought.

Good afternoon Colonel, I think Newcrest want to increase their share. I also think, they don't want this sold, after who, how does that benefit NCM's position. They are worried about dilution. They want a bigger stake, but they also realize that any sale, is a short term gain, and a massive long term loss. They will back NM if any EGM takes place. No one player is going to own Solgold, But everyone want's a bigger share. Maybe even CGP, but they are in a tight spot. All the best.

Miagi, for the record, I have sold about 1/3 of my holding, you are quite right in the 30's. The reason I never sold any in the 40's, was I believed they were still going up. So didn't sell any more.
Earthling, I am retired now, for me it's about regular income. Like everyone else I have suffered this year, only VOD still paying dividends. But on the point of you don't know how long you tie your money up when investing, I would disagree. The investments I make, I don't usually sell, hence income. Something like Solgold, was new to me, as my first mining speculative share. So my date I sell, has always been between 2025 to 2028. So that's the plan. If we get brought out, I still have a healthy profit, and have dividend paying shares on my watchlist. All the best.

Good post Earthling, that's why I don't trade. I used to, and make money. But when I compared trading to taking a position. There was no comparison. I made less trading. So gave up trading over 20 years ago. The problem for me, is you remember the good trades, over the bad trades, and often end up tied into positions longer than you want to be. Hence capital tied up and not working for you, in a share that's not moving. However, when you take a position, you know how long your capital is tied up for, and so can pro rata your capital. I would go slow burn every time. Just my take on the subject.