RE: institutional and fund buying9 Oct 2020 11:33
Morning rcgl2.
The point I make on this is historical, to a certain extent.
Takeovers in the mining industry seem to work like this to me. Many finds need money in the early stages, hence PEA,PFS,DFS and finally BFS. They get diluted bit by bit, and slowly the major acquires a larger and larger share, until it has such a grip, they can take it out easily. That's the reason I didn't invest in GGP, as Newcrest I believe will take them out. I was going invest in GGP after the PEA if it looked OK. ( I missed the boat on that one ).
I invested, in 2013 in Solgold, and their was only 600 million shares then, today it's 2.072 billion, so we have had dilution to get us to this stage.
But Solgold is different, we don't have a majority share holder, we have a diverse register, and I am sure that you and Ice and Copperpot, addicknt and many others understand that.
This along with various companies owning large chunks, but not controlling chunks, makes this harder to bid for.
These people understand what Solgold is worth today, and what we could be worth in the future, so they are not selling cheap.
I have always agreed with Addicknt, that should we sell in will be in the pounds not pennies.
I reckon a minimum bid of 2 pounds to 2 pounds 50 pence, may be successful after PFS, if we are valued at 7-8 billion dollars.
But at the same time believe the majors are looking for distressed good projects, that they can pick up cheap, because of Covid, and the financial state of the world.
I also look at funding. We are only at PEA and Franco Nevada, are going to fund us to DFS, for 1% NSR, which I believe will be reduced to 0.5% NSR, as in the agreement. This puts us in the position to raise the 2.7 billion dollars to build Alpala.
I believe we will end up raising between 3.1 to 3.2 billion, as we will end up funding CGP's share, as we will own 100% of ENSA in one form or another.
To answer your question, majors look for value, this means good projects they can pick up on the cheap.
We don't fall into that category, sure they can buy us, but they are going to have to pay near to full value, full value, or above full value. I don't believe the financial situation demands they do that. As their are smaller good projects around the world that need money and can be picked up cheaper.
I don't think any company is into paying a premium at the moment.
I do believe NM and BHP are talking, but not about a bid, maybe about how BHP can take a larger share in the future, but this will have nothing to do with Alpala, this will be about further fund raising for proving up other tenements.
But at some point this won't be necessary, as we will become self financing.
These are my thoughts on the subject rcgl2, along with others, that I have posted on this chatroom.
All the best.
PS: One last thought, I have only talked about Alpala, the story is changing, as we start to prove up other sites, so our valuation for a bid is a moving target, this makes a bid harder