Member Info for Qd22

Supermarkets??

Looks like it. But to be honest, I can’t see why this RNS has lifted the share price quite this much.

NB it says "STATUS: closed to recruitment; patients in follow-up".

To my mind that would mean their patients are through the treatment and just being observed for final effects or side effects. That would be great! Any views??

Maybe I shouldn't post this, since I may want to buy even more, but I've topped up heavily today on the basis of what appears the science here. Sitting down the old fashioned way with pen and paper what came out for me was:
1. Interferon is a natural molecule in humans, is part of our anti-viral response, and should therefore be well tolerated when topped up.
2. Viruses have evolved ways to negate it. But NOT by becoming immune to it, but by suppressing its production. Therefore (a) there seems to be an evolutionary advantage to them in negating it, and (b) topping it up should have an effect.
3. In the LAB: it does work on MERS, SARS, and - NB - COVID-19.
4. In HUMANS: it "has been well tolerated and shown to upregulate lung antiviral defences". Also it: "improved lung function in patients with a cold or flu infection". We don't know more re Covid-19 only because that is as far as the testing has gone, with published results: not because it has been shown not to work. In fact there has been one limited human trial, in China, on a comparatively small sample, and not with interferon on its own. They themselves say the study has "several limitations". Therefore though the result is positive it cannot be conclusive: "Conclusions. Therapeutic regimens of IFN-a?+?lopinavir/ritonavir and IFN-a?+?lopinavir/ritonavir?+?ribavirin MIGHT be beneficial for treatment of COVID-19." [My capitals.]

On this basis, for me it would seem quite strange if it doesn't really work for real life Covid-19 patients. It is well tolerated, in the lab it works on all these viruses including Covid-19, in humans it has been shown effectual against other viruses, with limited evidence against Covid-19 also. For it not to work there would seem to have to be something unique about Covid-19. Though unlikely that is not impossible: but there are indications in both lab and humans so far, and they are that it is not so.

Finally: the chinese paper is quite technical, but here it is if anyone is up to giving us a better interpretation. Please! https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00011-020-01342-0

... why buy these?

I was fortunate to sell a fair slice of my core holdings at the end of Jan [why oh why couldn't the government AND the DoH see what was obvious to a rubbish ex-biologist who dropped it 43 years ago over the moon to get a 2.2???] and have been topping up bits and bobs that I hope will not be too badly affected when what I guess is the true economic situation becomes really apparent. Trying to keep some in hand for that possibility. I don't know how that comes across as a stratagem!

Why PTRO? I'm no accountant but am happy to see Simon Thomson and Rivaldo - both of whom I listen to (and ST was recommending it at 49.5: it's down a long way) - positive on it. I'm amazed at the institution list, though I note Rathbones sold down a tad in mid-April. I note that I've spent most of the last few weeks staring at my phone. I've bought my food online for the first time: like many others I am shielded - but can you find a slot?! I tried Waitrose and they were booked up as far as I looked, nearly into August! I've got used to using the phone for far more, and I think others will have too. This may be a road of no return, our phones may really become essential to us now for more than just calls, as opposed to being just useful. The world is changing. So I'm wondering if anything that helps companies get and retain that elusive and precious customer will become essential. Pelatro.

Plus I hate little red things on the list, down huge percentages and worth very little. Sell, or top up? I hate to sell a company I believe in, especially when a comparatively small input will almost double the number of shares. I can't compare it with 200 other possibilities... and don't want a portfolio of 200 anyway... How's that for strategy?

This is what the company said in their March Covid-19 update: "It is not yet clear how widespread the virus will be, how long the pandemic will last and what the short to medium term effects of this pandemic will be on the behaviour of our customers; however, [SELF PROTECTING PREVARICATIONS, NOW THE MEAT:] the Directors believe that the telecommunications industry is likely to be less affected by any economic downturn, whether local or global, than most, particularly as certain telecoms activities tend to increase in "stay at home" periods such as end of year holidays and festivals such as Christmas and Ramadan, generating more user spending and more targeted marketing. At present the message we are getting from our telco customers is very much "business as usual"."

Bit the bullet.

Birdieman, do you have a link for your item 2: the 94 patients in a chinese hospital who all recovered after interferon treatment?

PS Why do you think it's called 'intefere-on'?! Maybe named by a virus!

Why did I buy? Just by memory:

1. Interferon is a natural part of the body's response to virus attack, to a range of viruses, not just specific ones.
2. Viruses have evolved ways to suppress it: implying it's a real problem for them.
3. Synairgen delivers top up interferon right where it is needed, direct to the lungs, thus defeating the virus defence system.
4. It has been shown to be well tolerated in real human trials, for COPD and asthma. That is a huge hurdle. Remember it is a natural molecule.
5. In those human trials it was shown to improve outcome for those with viral infections, such as colds and flu.
6. Lab studies showed it to significantly decrease viral load on cells, with related viruses, including SARS and MERS.
7. The lab studies show it to work very well indeed at low levels of dosage if pre-treated, and with nebulised delivery the key to synairgen that means it could work very well with early stage disease at home or on early admission to hospital, or prophylactically.
8. I'm sure I've forgotten something....!

Any way to verify this? A link at least? If true it’s good news, even though it was expected.

PS. I forgot that both axes are log scales: so in fact it looks like 10 times the effect for 500 times less dosage. I may have got that completely wrong, I was a rotten scientist and it’s a very long time ago, but that’s how I read it. Correction/improvement welcome!

If you look at the graph on this page - https://www.synairgen.com/covid-19/ -showing the effectiveness of interferon on MERS viral load on cells in the lab you can see that it works well in increasing concentrations. But if the cells have been pre-treated with interferon it takes a very low dose to have a much greater effect. You get twice the effect for 500 times less dosage, if I am reading it correctly. While these cells have been pre-treated rather than being treated early in the course of an infection, and it is in the lab, and it is not Covid-19 but MERS, it’s still implies that the earlier treatment may have an enormous effect and therefore if people can be treated at home at the first signs of illness It could make a game changing difference.

This is one of my massive percentage fallers that I have not yet topped up. Always so tempted by a bargain, but I'm not sure it is one: I bought near the top, and it has recovered to above the middle rank of its previous price, and a 18 PE. It's also governments who'll be buying these systems and I fear it's one of those bits of expenditure that will get postponed in the post-Covid belt tightening. I think for now I'll just hold....

What do you think, people? I am a holder, so the last thing I want to do is deramp, but it's how I'm seeing it for me now.

I've attempted the noble art of bottom fishing far too many times: only to find I've been flapping around in the shallows!

Let's hope it was better timed this time. :)

....what will happen when the other test comes in?? Different kind of test, manufactured in a different facility. Both are needed.

"Partnering with Mologic is separate from, and additional to, the announcement made by the Company on 9 April 2020 relating to the UK Rapid Test Consortium (RTC), which is to jointly develop and manufacture a Point-of-Care COVID-19 lateral flow antibody test which could be used 'at-home' and which will be manufactured in Omega's Alva facility in Scotland."

Love it, topped up.

Topped up in March at 189.

This has been a stinker as we all know. Now of course it's suffering because cruise ships etc will be largely extinct for a while. That is obvious and must be priced in.

What I'm hoping is not priced in is that as entertainment venues reopen it will be a huge bonus if they can say that they have a system to avoid waiting in queues [while you pay extra for a hamburger and fries]. Can see exactly why ITV have brought them on board.

They also had a contract with a North American hospital at one stage. Quite apart from revenue that may now sound like a great idea for hospitals now....

I'm not selling but I can see that in the lack of news pending results the price is drifting down. Some may feel they can time it!

re LOGIC do remember it is double blind placebo controlled: DESIGNED so that you can't tell how it is going until the magic list is taken out of the safe at the end. While the ego-driven consultants may want to look good in the public eye they even more don't want to look like fools in the eyes of their colleagues/rivals, and won't want to second guess this. 50% of patients on the trial are on placebos, and they don't know which. Even though it is very hard not to guess.

I've put too much in here, including just a week or so back, but I wish I could do more. It hasn't bounced like so many other shares, and with its data centre flooring work it's in a sweet spot: the internet has been so utterly essential recently, has struggled, and the chancellor has promised £5bn for upgrading it. 5G coming along too. Meantime the sp is half what it was 5 years ago - or 2 months ago.

... and topped up. Lost too much here already but like Rivaldo I can't see how private aircraft won't benefit greatly once the lockdown has lifted, if not before. $33m will have helped with cash flow in the meantime, on top of their Covid update on 9th April: "In terms of liquidity, the Group retains a $50m credit facility with HSBC of which $30m remains undrawn and we currently have $17m of cash following the receipt in March of a substantial annual advance payment in respect of a long-term contract."

While the ask price was supposed to be 37p my first offer was for 40, so beware: keeping at it I got it at 37 by working up from a lower figure.

Can't remember where I saw it, but it was in SNG's info that proactive use was far more effective. Needed a much smaller dose to drop the viral load massively. One of the graphs.

"Synairgen's Phase II trial in COVID-19 patients (SG016) will be a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. "

This means until they collate the results at the end no one knows which patients have had the drug or the placebo. It prevents unconscious - or conscious - bias, and is gold standard, I think. It also means they have no idea until the end - I expect [please correct me if wrong!] - how the trial is going. So they can't give out any hints/info.

We have to be patient: but it means when the results come out the SP will blast, either way. But it seems to me the reasons for this drug, and approach, are really promising.