Member Info for Qd22

I am in both, they are competitors only in small parts. Larger holding here, but I would say the possibilities for AVCT's Affimer technology are simply enormous. The risk there is larger, but so is the reward.

I’ll be surprised if the next update isn’t pretty positive.

Aerospace will have been hit but it’s only about 7% of revenues, and the technical plastics should be doing well.

Certainly not selling at this level.

From the last trading update, in the current outlook section, what does this mean? Can anyone help me?

“ Customer demand remains relatively resilient with a book to bill ratio of 0.95:1. ”

What is the book to build ratio, and is 0.95:1 a good one?

Hah! :) My mistake, thank you for pointing it out. I read as far as "20th" and didn't see it was last month.

What's an iceberg?

Is no one else seeing this?

Revenues for year up 86%. Nothing about margins/profitability. Covid shipments started in new year.

I'm in both. Worth listening to Cathal Friel, the boss. He is realistic and impressive. Pitches it as a service company, based on the near-unique testing facility (I forget the language). So it's a different play to AVCT. Yes, they are implementing very high quality antibody testing, but not a vast capacity. Also they have one or two "lottery tickets", such as a long term flu (and malaria??) vaccine ie not needing renewal every autumn. They've done well for me, and I'm not selling yet. Both are good. As with Avacta there are so many companies with major possibilities - I spread it round. Eggs not in one basket! Risk/reward may be better here, simply because the Affimer possibilities are so huge.

This trading update appears really confident. They're maintaining the divi, which in today's situation seems a very good sign as to how they see it. Recurring revenue continues on up, with organic growth of 19% and 458 new logo wins, including such names as the Federal Reserve.

"Reflecting the importance of the Group's software to our customers, there has been no material impact on the Group's existing customer relationships or the ARR book as a result of COVID-19.

Cash generated by operations was ahead of expectations at over 95% of adjusted EBITDA*, resulting in a gross cash balance of £8.2m and gross bank borrowings of £25.0m at the period end. Net bank debt at the year end of £16.8m was lower than anticipated and comfortably within banking covenants. As a result, the Group remains in a robust financial position."

I sold out a while back, but have been enviously watching a relative's small holding continuing to rise, and am back today: this is a keeper.

Lots of automatic buys/sells. I don't like trading against machines - they don't think like I do. But still interested.

REAT, a specialised deep cleaning company, has doubled since mid-April, while we've level pegged. We are a specialised cleaning product company, particularly for the hospital sector. Primarily instruments, in which we may be best in class, but that will be recommending our surface cleaners. Yes, dark horse.

And thinking about it, there are at least 3 possible kick starters. Possible massive sales increase, both in UK and abroad (esp China, where we may really have gained a foothold), and a wider spread of countries. US approval, which may have been accelerated. The introduction of the new collaborative range of mid-levels with Byotrol's Actizone product. They'll be racing to get that out, wonder when that will be? I seem to remember they've worked with them before, it may be more a matter of testing than of development???

I get why you sold to buy Avacta. I'm in there too, the Affimer protein substitutes could be a game changer for treatment, not only of Covid-19 but possibly any infectious agent. But TSTL is my long term hold, first bought around 90p I think, and it's been very kind to me.

ATB everyone.

Interesting: the RNS came out on Thursday, but until ST recommended it today it made no difference at all.

Who are you thinking of - what peers? I'm wondering if this is due a top up, but they aren't generous with their information. Though I have to admit the March trading update was at least hopeful.

I'm pretty amateur, but I think it's worth stating - again, and it's the obvious, I know - that when results come out for this share it will rocket or halve in seconds.

I can't see that there will be any time at all to buy in/sell out. There may be no hint at all that the results are coming, to prepare your final position, so whatever I've got in here from now on must be what I'm prepared to see halve.

I do have a large holding for me: on the basis of the science we know I think we have a very good chance. But there is simply a real probability it is not effective.

Finally, the home use trial is very encouraging. Somebody mentioned way down the page the potential for nursing homes, and if it is even only partially effective then it could be a game changer for homes, where the oldest residents could not manage it on their own but it's easy for the staff to administer, and do so prophylactically. There it could make all the difference. Please God!

What is also interesting is that these reagents were specifically developed very quickly to lock into these spike proteins in order to develop a test. It appears not to have been too difficult (!!!). Now it turns out - quite unsurprisingly - that they block the spike proteins, since of course they bind them. How difficult is it going to be then to develop blocking Affimers for ANY new protein. Is the common cold next in line??? The sky could be the limit here...

AVCT possible treatments (there are several possible Affimers) are small protein-like molecules. Strikes me that the it's Synairgen that has the tech to deliver proteins in nebulised form direct to the point of action. Ideal partners?

Yet another whole new area. Previously they were only in testing for Covid-19, now they're into therapy - a whole new ball game.

They have so many collaborations and partnerships that it seems likely they will not have a problem to find the right partner to take this forward, as they are seeking: "Avacta has now demonstrated that several Affimer reagents also perform this blocking function and the Company is now seeking a partner that has the resources available to develop a neutralising Affimer therapy as quickly as possible."

My question mark has been that an Affimer that binds the virus spike could also bind something in the human body and cause problems. Fortunately they have several to try; and also there seems to be such a rush to use them in so many other ways that it doesn't look likely that the boffins think that is likely. But on top of that Synairgen have the technology to deliver proteins via nebuliser direct to the lung without any entry through the skin into the body proper. So since these are protein-like but smaller it seems very probable that they could be delivered directly onto the virus in the lungs. Banzai! :)

Looking very good. Topped up at 130 this morning and was worried for a bit, but it's looking better and better.

Thank you both, helpful. As is always, for me, writing out a post like that. The fact that it's going public means I think it through much more thoroughly.

Do gin and honey go together? Can't picture it! Maybe gin-infused honey, rather than honey-infused gin...? However the land 'flowing with milk and honey' has a long history.

I've never worked in commerce/business so there's a lot I don't understand.

1. They keep calling it a "collaboration", and refer to the "manufacturing agreement". So I wonder if there is no contract, nothing fixed. A gentlemen's agreement? Or am I too suspicious?
2. It is "white label manufacturing with a leading top 10 global healthcare company". White label means I gather it goes under the other party's name. But it's a large company, and the product is for "soft tissue orthopaedics", which I guess means ligaments/cartilage, which is a gigantic market in us ageing humans.
3. The IP comes from both sides, though I'm nervous that they are not more specific about it, and patents. "The manufacturing agreement follows collaboration between the R&D teams of both companies to develop a new product using one of the Group's proprietary technology platforms to address orthopaedic soft tissue repairs." Maybe while the actual product IP is with the other company the manufacture is best done with TRX processes. Really don't know. This announcement is so vague.
4. It uses some kind of spare capacity in their manufacturing set up, and NB the only time period mentioned is 2 years, but not as something fixed. Is this a fill-in?
4. "Over the next two years, it is expected that the product will make a material contribution to the Group's top line revenue growth." Only revenue is mentioned: is that significant? Not profitability/margins. Again, is this a fill-in? It uses unused capacity, it keeps their people employed and skilled and growing, but is white label with a giant company so maybe wafer thin margins, if any. Financially perhaps it keeps them going, turning over, nothing more. However that is still important: meantime "during Q1 2020, the Group signed further distribution agreements with a number of selected partners to expand the market penetration of its AmnioWorks®, Matrix OI®, and DentalFix® brands". Time is a lifeline.

Is this a gentlemen's agreement, a marriage of convenience, which tides them over while their other products gain traction - but also while the global company sets up their own systems?? Very small margins.

But of course it's also a foot in the door with a giant company?

I have a small holding, which was deep in the red. Was planning to look hard at topping up. I've missed the boat, at least the first sailing. As usual! What now..???

In today at 370.

Book your slot before you leave home, then when arrive sit in the car (or window shop) rather than stand in the rain. Great for UK!

Could also separate the hardware/clothing/books etc sections where social distancing is much easier: you can browse there and buy undies while waiting for your slot to come up.