Member Info for Qd22

PS. Really don't get the price DROP.

Post 2, from Zeus, is useful. Wonder where they are getting the extra info from.

I have a friend who interprets for doctors by telephone, internationally as well as here in the UK. She says that the Americans have much longer appointments, up to an hour (not our 2 minutes!), and they go all round the houses and are very thorough. Since time is money and those 1 hour appointments must cost, and they must show thoroughness, I would expect US sales to expand much faster than our skinflint NHS ones.

I would guess as the other tests are validated they could all be done with the one blood sample. Great if they can especially highlight the more occult ones, such as pancreas, oesophageal, etc.

Agreed, Trek, this "proves the engine works". We have the horse, a great big Suffolk Punch Shire.... now for the cart. As the results become more and more conclusive hopefully we'll get the contracts to suit. How much excuse for waiting now?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.17.21262105v1

"Earlier detection of lung cancer is possible, but difficult and costly to achieve. Screening with Low Dose Computed Tomography (LDCT)scanning has been shown to reduce mortality by 20-25% over the past decade but uptake amongst those most likely to suffer the disease has been slow. Resource constraints and a high false positive rate have also limited adoption of LDCT in many health systems. Targeted screening of people most likely to benefit using a range of biomarkers may be one way to improve the yield and reduce the resource requirements of LDCT. Autoantibodies, which amplify the signal produced by cancer derived proteins, are present in the blood of people mounting an immune response to cancer are a potential way to select those at highest risk. We have followed up 12 208 people enrolled in the ECLS trial for three years and shown that the specificity for early stage (I &II) disease is 90.3% throughout that period. More cancers were detected in the control than the intervention arm of the trial (101V 83). Sensitivity was 77.8% after 6 months and dropped to 46.4% after 3 years. At the end of three years the hazard ratios (95%CI) for All Cause, Cancer Specific and Lung Cancer Mortality was 0.82(0.67-1.01), 0.72(0.54-0.97) and 0.70(0.46-1.08) respectively for those randomised to Early CDT testing. As a range of treatment modalities become increasingly more effective it is even more important to target LDCT on those most likely to have early stage disease. Autoantibody testing may be one method of targeting early detection on those most likely to benefit."

I can't say I understand all this! For example, "More cancers were detected in the control than the intervention arm of the trial (101V 83)." I assume they weren't just letting any diagnosed cancers in any patient be left untreated so exactly what were the 'control' and 'intervention' arms?! Maybe control had LDCT, but not the Early CDT testing. Implies that LDCT is better: but it's expensive, with a high rate of false positives, and has low take up. Whereas a simple blood test the GP can almost sneak in, with 90.3% specifity...... is easy and great.

But if anyone can explain this better to laymen, please do.

Ditto. Clearly it's an awful day for the market. If people are scared it's the start of a crash and they see this start to fall they'll sell anyway. "There must be a reason...."

But I wonder if it is the outlook as well: they had a huge Covid boost and hit such a high a year ago, but like VLG are being hit by overstocking (and new competitors) which has to be worked through. BUT.... they say it is stabilising now, and medium to long term is great. Especially like the licence income.

"Outlook and current trading

The sanitiser market has experienced a period of unprecedented activity as a result of COVID-19, resulting in record financial performance for Byotrol. We believe the increase in anti-microbial awareness and mass-uptake of related products will continue long into the future.

Management remains extremely positive on the medium to long-term outlook where the market is forecast to grow globally at 8 to 10% per year from pre-COVID levels and industry earnings growth is likely to exceed this as weaker competitors with inferior chemistries, and those that lack regulatory approval, fall away.

In the short-term, revenue from product sales in the new financial year to date has been hindered by closed venues from extended lockdowns, new competition, and an excess of inventory. However, the market does now appear to be stabilising and management now expect product sales for FY22 at a level some 10 to 20% below those for FY21: an exceptional year which was itself over 90% ahead of FY20."

And they are in profit, no debt, and you can hardly say this whopping result was priced in. May top up, when it looks like it's stabilised. You could hardly this coming year to have sales like the last: 10-20% below seems pretty good to me, seeing it's so much up on the year before. Seems likely to me that many buyers have discovered their virtues and they expect will stay with them.

Are they waiting for a crash?

"Vaccine, sir?..... No?......Then can I interest you in some mouthwash?" :)

RNS 16th November 2020: "In their published in-vitro[2] study, scientists at Cardiff University concluded that Venture Life's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus completely (>5log reduction, equivalent to 99.999%) within a 30 second exposure."

Further to my thoughts yesterday re the pending results for the in vivo trial for Covid killing...

I can see why, say, a drug might behave differently inside the body to outside it, but I really can't see why a mouthwash that kills Covid so effectively in a test tube would not kill it probably just as effectively in the mouth and throat. It's just a different surface, but it's the same bug. Maybe some factor I can't think of would knock it down by a few percent, but to knock it out completely??!! No.

And remember this: "Cardiff University went on to state that the 'exact formulation is also important'. Whilst the CPC technology in Venture Life's mouthwash proved highly effective in the in-vitro study, they also tested a third mouthwash, which also contained both CPC and another ingredient, yet this proved ineffective. Their conclusion was that active ingredients in mouthwashes were not, on their own, enough to rely on, but rather it was the construct of the mouthwash formulations that was the critical determinant of a successful outcome." The 'construct' of Dentyl's formulation may not be easy or legal to copy.

So it's very likely we have a unique mouthwash already widely on sale in many countries that is (a) cheap (b) effectively kills Covid-19 at the initial site of infection (c) doesn't need to be transported and stored at -80 deg C! (d) We can easily distribute to most of the world - check out the map:
https://www.venture-life.com/our-partners/

Happy! :)))

Topped up.

You guys are among those I look up to as knowing what you're talking about (!), and if the Dentyl results they mention ["The clinical study at Cardiff University on our mouthwashes completed in April 2021 and the results have been submitted for peer review in key journals. We are hopeful to see the publication of these results very soon."] come through well it could be massive, as per last November's RNS on in vitro trials: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VLG/results-of-in-vitro-clinical-trial-published-ham8hx1frl4du16.html

Mouthwash won't cure Covid in the lung, but at the beginning of the pandemic it seemed that it takes hold in the throat, then moves to the lung. Even if the effect was not 100% in vivo it's a cheap available mouthwash that hopefully slows down the bug long enough for the body to clear for action and rig the boarding nets...

It is however taking a long time to be peer reviewed, from April to now, which would be very sad indeed if it really is effective. But if not I don't think the downside would be too large. Dentyl's had no mention in the public sphere.

... my holding. My buy 12.628p was marked as a sell, so all of those others at that price are probably buys.

Couldn't believe that it was down after those results.

Sometimes my very best buys are with companies I'm well down on after a long fall and top up in the dumps. The more negative the board the better - it's hard when you've been in a long time and it just never returns. Peoples, you're not negative enough! Twix, keep at it! Please! [Actually, no, you can stop now :) - I've bought.] I'm no expert, but it seems to me it takes time to change downward momentum even when it all starts going well. Good news at those times is like water off a duck's back, it does nothing. It's a great moment if you can get it. Time will tell if this was it...

2:30 into that CEO and CFO broadcast someone gave a link to earlier: "we've taken the margin up to 62%". Nice.
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/611281d38f5b0057e031384d/yourgene-health-full-year-results-update/?popup=true

Agreed, that’s a really useful RMS.

Does anyone know how the costs compare with the standard antibody based method of collecting CTCs?

If they compare well it’s hard to see any reason why we should not become the standard method of collection worldwide.

Apologies if this has already been discussed in depth, I've had an eye open but among the thousands of posts it would be easy to miss.

Simply that with Deep Mind releasing protein shapes to all if I understand Affimers right Avacta may be in the best place to take advantage of a stunning new tech, with the set-up and IP already in place to be able to produce affimers to fit and lock into many unique protein folded shapes, and Deep Mind's willingness to quickly process a DNA sequence to produce a likely shape.. Maybe there are alternative technologies, I don't know, but I wonder if this will open up enormous new opportunities to Avacta.

Is someone techy able to confirm or deny this? Thanks.

Odd sequences of numbers on the sells. I know nothing about these things but I suspect an institution has been taking profits. More fool them as far as I'm concerned, but I suppose they have to, to maintain a balance, while we can choose to chance it. But IMO yesterday's news was very good. Maybe they do it at a time like this so the large amounts don't start a downward slide and destroy the value of the rest of their holding. MPAC was 48p less than 5 years ago.

Just wild ignorant guessing.

Thanks lor_9. Dropping today. People losing patience? Anything less than a stellar update seems to be punished in this market.

Seems like a great update this morning, solid growth in all directions. I miss Rivaldo's analysis! Not clear if this is the same update you were commenting on yesterday, but it does say for Thursday 29th....

"The strong order growth reported in the second half of the last financial year continued in the first quarter this year, further strengthening the Group's order book. Revenue was significantly ahead of both the Covid-impacted prior year and the pre-Covid period of FY20202. With gross margins consistent with last year, and despite a stronger Sterling during the period3, the performance of the Group for the first quarter was ahead of the Board's expectations.

Group sales in the first quarter were 21% ahead of last year at CER3, growing by 16% organically4 and by 10% organically compared with two years ago. Organic performance was similar in both divisions and continues to be driven by demand in the Group's target markets5.

The order book at 30 June 2021 was £220m, 50% higher organically than last year and 30% higher organically than 2 years ago. Orders remained well ahead of sales, growing by 83% and 35% organically compared with last year and two years ago."

Great, but the SP is over X2 2 years ago! It's not cheap in Stockopedia, with V at 28, but QM is 92 and I personally I will hold. I don't have a huge holding, but I think this will continue to be a steady riser. Competent company.

The real beauty is it captures them intact.

I'm trying to work out how this works.

"ANGLE has been selected to develop immunofluorescence (IF) assays using its Parsortix® system to detect two specific protein markers expressed by circulating tumour cells (CTCs) and implicated in DNA damage repair (DDR), an increasing area of focus for oncology drug development. ...
...As part of the contract, ANGLE will develop the two assays to detect the target proteins in four hard-to-treat cancers: triple negative breast cancer, prostate cancer (including metastatic and/or castration resistant), ovarian cancer (including high grade) and pancreatic cancer."

The assays detect the 2 proteins involved in DNA damage repair, which therefore show the presence of cancer. But also may be part of some kind of drug treatment system.

Then, "The clinical trial phase will incorporate longitudinal analysis of patient samples (for example before, during and after treatment with the investigational drug) and is expected to generate further significant revenues for ANGLE. " So a drug is being trialled for which these assays show ongoing effectiveness, probably at short intervals through the treatment period. That's how they assess the effectiveness of the drug - or not.

Should the drug be effective in the long run it would be in use for a huge number of difficult cancers: breast, prostrate, ovarian and pancreatic, as above. One would hope that as normal treatment progressed effectiveness in each patient would be assessed ongoing, probably using Angle's assay, which would mean Angle would be involved in the regular treatment of a huge number of patients.

Should the drug not be effective the assay will be available to Angle, not the commissioning unnamed company, for any other prospective treatments aimed at these proteins.

Sounds good to me.

“Once developed, the new assays will remain in the ownership of ANGLE and be added to ANGLE's menu of pre-developed tests that can be offered to other pharma customers.“

Looks great.

Yes, I'd always focused on the packaging side of things - ubiquitous and important.

But this as you say elsewhere seems to be another vertical, using the automation and packaging expertise as part of the manufacturing process itself - if I understand it right. Great!

NB it's for the 'Customer Qualification Plant'. But I'm interested in this in the RNS:
"The contract with Mpac also grants FREYR options for delivery of the casting and unit cell assembly equipment packages for FREYR's planned Gigafactories."

And this from your 'Life in Norway' link below:

"The money raised will be used to build new factories in Mo i Rana, an industrial centre in the north of Norway. “We believe this is one of the largest industrial investments in Norway in the post-war period. Some say it is the biggest,” Freyr CEO Tom Einar Jensen told NRK.....

Norway is well-known as a leader in electric car sales and infrastructure development. Several companies are also taking an interest in electric-powered aviation.

But it's now looking increasing likely that the country will play a big role in the production of the batteries needed to power the electrification revolution.

Freyr is developing lithium-ion based battery cell facilities to supply high energy density and cost-competitive clean batteries to rapidly growing markets.

The company will take advantage of Norway's established low-cost, renewable hydropower and in future, wind power, to keep costs low and production green.

Interest in the Mo i Rana based company has grown quickly. Now it plans to use the money raised to build five gigafactories in the Mo i Rana region, which could bring thousands of much-needed jobs into Northern Norway.

“We have secured several plots of land in the industrial park at Mo, including a building by the quay where we will start a pilot factory. Then we will build four new factories in quick succession,” said Jensen.

In the new facilities, Freyr plans to produce battery cells equivalent to 800,000 electric cars annually. Jensen hopes to have the first production up and running in 2022.

If MPAC is involved in all of these......... Boom?! :)

Seem solid to me, if not very good. What do others think? I am no expert.

Glad you're not sure! Anyone who's sure is deep in the doodah.

Most of those "patient examinations with medical devices that Tristel's products disinfect" will still need to be done. Just that much more urgently. Tragedy for some, and real problem for many. A friend of mine in Canada had his procedure postponed due to Covid and has had a much bigger problem, with all the worry that will go with that for years to come.

And I expect the surface disinfectant usage rise will be slow to drop back again, if at all.

Yes, I didn't think it was bad... just lacked the confidence to say so! Never been in business, nor a clue as to accounting.