Member Info for Qd22

I’m no figures man, but they look okay to me. Any ideas why we are down over 5%?

Forgot to mention that at $18.4 million this is the largest contract ever for Cerillion. The previous record was £11.2 million, around $15.4 million, set only last September. That’s a good jump up, though it is over a longer time period. The long time period is good!

This is going places. Record after record.

Great contract - another. Like Cherokee I can't believe this is so quiet. Maybe with P/E at 23 it seems expensive, but it's on the cheap side for its industry, acc Stockop*dia. Stocko ranks companies on Quality, Value and Momentum, and gives a combined rating out of 100. While they recommend combining all 3 factors ['QVR'], actually if you compare QVR with just Q and M the latter does better over the longest time frames they give. I bought after a big intraday jump in September, but I'm still well up.

"This contract, together with a smaller £2.7m extension recently secured with an existing customer in Europe, is anticipated to result in the Company exceeding current management expectations for pre-tax profit in the current financial year ending 30 September 2021.

.... The new customer is the main telecoms provider in its national market, supplying fixed, pre and post-paid mobile, and broadband services to both B2B and B2C customers."

Like it.

Interesting that on Stockopedia IQE is one of only 4 companies that qualify for the Earnings Surprise screen.

"Earnings Surprise Momentum is a momentum investing strategy that was identified in research by academics Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Joshua Livnat in their paper, Revenue Surprises and Stock Returns. It specifically looks for companies that managed to significantly beat earnings and sales forecasts in their previous financial results. These 'earnings surprises' have been found to cause medium term increases in share prices. This is believed to be caused by analysts being slow to revise their forecasts and the market failing to adequately 'price-in' the better than expected results. Jegadeesh and Livnat found that the the top 20% of stocks in terms of upside earnings and sales surprises outperformed the market by 5.3%. They wrote: "Although analysts revise their forecasts of future earnings in response to revenue surprises, they are slow to incorporate fully the information in revenue surprises."

Now you know as much as me! It does sound true to form for IQE.

Given you're not currently a holder then all the more thanks, Gotrader, for your continual constructive and informative comment on IQE. I always look out for your comments.

"Of couse for many this is just covering losses." More or less!

After the huge hopes and then disappointments of yesteryears I think really the only thing that will move this now is real revenue and profit.

"IQE ... is pleased to announce it has achieved key power and reliability milestones for its IQDN-VCSEL™ technology for advanced sensing applications at longer wavelengths (1100-1600 nm) on 150 mm GaAs substrates."

It's hardly catchy, is it?

The average punter - and probably ii - is switched off already, especially given the history. We can't see the vision.

We don't read on to "This has met the development requirements for multiple Tier 1 3D sensing customers."

And: "Because ... it offers a longer wavelength "drop in" solution for IQE's customers, enabling them to use the same equipment and processes that were developed for shorter wavelengths to achieve longer wavelengths."

And: "IQE is currently engaged in customer-funded development programmes with key Tier 1 customers to refine this technology for qualification in future 3D sensing applications. ...
...and our partner engagements are a testament to the potential for this technology for next generation 3D sensing applications."

Even if we get it how many understand what the market is for this? This technology "is a key component of a unique VCSEL portfolio that enables IQE's customers to serve a diverse range of high-volume market opportunities."

Multiple Tier 1 customers [OK, that may just mean >1! But still, 2 or more Tier 1...].

Allows them to use the same equipment for a new category of product. No vast re-tooling costs.

It's customer funded: THEY WANT THIS. Inbuilt market the moment it's ready.

Diverse range of high volume market opportunities.... Big words.

Times past we would have said "Buy, buy, buy!" and it would have lit the blue touch paper. Not so now. Now we need to see the money. Will it come? The info is buried beneath the technobabble, but surely they can't lie in an RNS. The potential is certainly there.

See my long post 27th Oct, I was really concerned in 2015 that they had made a giant mess up with licences, worldwide. Still may be the case.

Includes me, though not with a large buy. Didn't invest in this because I'm a long term holder of Tristel, which has been a great share, but with TSTL up and BYOT down I've taken some profits and brought them over. Hospital hygiene hugely important. And all those care homes. great hopes here.

Yes, hoping it's bottomed too. Really can't see why it's so low. Sentiment feeding on sentiment! In a low news period. I wonder if investors in junior miners - or even worse explorers - tend to be risk takers and easily bored, also often put too much in for their situations, get nervous, the price drops and that worries everyone...... The last RNS, "strategic intent", was hardly necessary so I wonder if it was simply to give some encouragement to the waverers in a quiet period.

Thanks for you good info and summary CopperOn.

I've just taken some profits from XTRA [also copper] to top up here. I'm no expert, but one's up and the other's down! :)

Anyone else in both?

Happy with this. It certainly looks like they are good at what they do. Maybe will get a comment from Simon Thompson at Investors Chronicle, who lasted recommended it Feb 19th.

"Disposal of Peter Brotherhood Limited

Avingtrans plc, which designs, manufactures and supplies critical components, modules, systems and associated services to the energy, medical and industrial sectors, is pleased to announce that it has completed the sale of Peter Brotherhood Limited ("Peter Brotherhood") to Howden, a leading global provider of mission critical air and gas handling products, for a total consideration (enterprise value) of £35.0 million (the "Disposal"), which, after adjustment for debt and working capital, will result in the Company receiving net proceeds of approximately £30.6 million, before transaction costs.

Background to the Sale



Peter Brotherhood, based in Peterborough, UK, which sat within Avingtrans' Process Solutions and Rotating Equipment ("PSRE") division, specialises in the design, manufacture and servicing of performance-critical steam turbines, turbo gen-sets, compressors, gear boxes and combined heat and power systems. It was acquired in September 2017, as part of the acquisition of the Hayward Tyler Group ("HTG") which attracted total consideration of £52.7m, of which Peter Brotherhood represented approximately £9.3m. Therefore, the Disposal represents a gross return on the original capital investment of almost four times.



The Disposal has been orchestrated in-line with the Company's long term Pinpoint-Invest-Exit ("PIE") strategy, which aims to realise value for shareholders. Peter Brotherhood was in difficulty when it was acquired by Avingtrans and a rapid restructuring programme was implemented, followed by a strategy reset. This led to a project to recruit and train an improved sales force, multiple sales agents and a strengthening of the aftermarket team, which proved to be the key to recovery and increased value.



To make the next step change in performance at Peter Brotherhood, Avingtrans would have had to enter a multi-year programme of investment. Therefore, the Board decided that the time was right to execute an exit plan, to optimise value for shareholders and to unite the team at Peter Brotherhood with Howden, a global leader in air and gas handling products, which can take the business to the next level.

Peter Brotherhood's revenues for the year ended 31 May 2020 were £25.7 million, resulting in a contribution to Group operating profits of £3.3 million. At the date of sale, the unaudited pro-forma net assets being disposed of, after adjusting for intercompany funding, are approximately £5.0m.

Terms of the Sale



The Disposal is for an enterprise value of £35.0 million which, after adjustment for debt and working capital, will result in the Company receiving net proceeds of approximately £30.6 million, before costs. There are no earn out arrangements, or deferred consideration."

TTG and BREE are both down today on what I see as good results considering the last year. Maybe others. Could be people are waiting for results then raising cash in anticipation of a market top? Not me, prospects are too good here.

I'm really really not a figures man, and have never been in business, but according to the September update the first 8 months took a £93m hit in revenue on 2019, including a one month contribution from Cemex. So they made that up in the last four.

They said at the time, "The Group believes that the average of current full-year market expectations for underlying EBIT is £57 million, with a range of £49 million to £70 million." With a final EBIT down 34% at £76.5m, they exceeded the top of the expected range in September, and their "at least £70 million" from November.

With the expectation of a maiden divi too I can live with that.

Seems to me there has to be another big jump sometime, but as you say it will need some news to start it. Marom seems so strategically canny - I couldn't believe it when he pulled ventilator manufacture out of the hat at exactly the right time last year - that I'm sure the proceeds of this recent sale will be used very well. He says, "We will be able to use the proceeds from this transaction to accelerate the areas of our business that we believe will provide transformational growth opportunities." That looks to me that it's going into what they already have rather than acquisitions, which means I think they expect great things of them. Looking forward to news.

'SMS has concluded an agreement to acquire a portfolio of c.15,000 I&C large power HH electricity meters for a cash consideration of £8.25 million....

...As part of the transaction, which is scheduled to complete in early April 2021, SMS will also take ownership of the data service contracts associated with over 20,000 meters, which will initially generate a further net £2 million of data annualised recurring revenue.

Alan Foy, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"........In addition, the acquisition of the I&C Half Hourly meter portfolio is testament to the strength of SMS's data platforms, which enables the Group to consolidate such value accretive opportunities and further leverage its well-established infrastructure."'

This seems really positive. I've picked out the bits about data, which they don't seem to make much of. However it's nearly 2/3 of the revenue from the I&C HH acquisition. It looks like it will slot well into SMS's data service ie perhaps with very little outlay or ongoing cost. With meters, energy storage and data SMS seem to be in 3 very strong areas, each with strong streams of recurring revenue. I can't say I understand much about it, but they say data is the new oil...

PS.... and from a position of total ignorance I'm wondering if these large power meters will fit very neatly into opportunities to provide energy storage facilities, say at company level. Anyone know more about it?

I've been in here since early April. Astonished and utterly dismayed at the long, long, shameful wait to get governments to pay attention to what was a no-brainer even then.

Now finally it's urgent in both UK & US. Phase III trials started in UK 13th Jan.... WHEN WILL WE GET NEWS? ie When will they start to save lives on the larger scale? It was to be spread over "approximately 20 countries" and involve 610 patients, and it's now nearly 2 months on. Supposed to be urgent, now it's 48 days in, over 20 countries (what were they thinking of?).... that's less than 1 patient per country per day. 0.635 to be precise. What has been the blockage all along? They were to be hospitalised Covid patients requiring oxygen. Surely not too hard to find in a global pandemic!!

The 13th Jan RNS re the UK et al phase III trial also stated "Synairgen is also running an ongoing Phase II trial of inhaled interferon beta in non-hospitalised 'at risk' patients, (SG016), that is progressing rapidly. For more information and to take part, visit www.covidtrialathome.com." Recruitment completed - the last patient recruited - on 20th Jan with much fanfare, but "Results from the trial are expected in Q2 2021." OK, maybe there is much, much that I don't understand that has to continue, including ongoing monitoring, but these are at home non-hospitalised patients, surely within a couple of weeks you are already seeing results, or not. All along the lack of urgency has been terrifying.

As Prof Francis from Southampton Uni stated "Following the promising results from the SG016 Hospital Study, we are excited to see whether we can detect important benefits from early use of inhaled interferon beta (SNG001) for COVID-19 in the home environment, in terms of resolution of symptoms, preventing hospitalisation, and reducing the burden of Long-COVID." Only the last of these takes time, and can be ongoing...for years...so why hold up the other sides when lives are at stake?

The US trial - redoing Phase II because no one else can do anything competently - started 15th Feb. HOWEVER "If an investigational agent shows promise by demonstrating safety and reducing COVD-19 symptoms through 28 days following administration, the ACTIV-2 trial is designed to expand seamlessly from a Phase II to a Phase III study to gather additional critical data from a larger pool of volunteers without delay."

Which means that in a couple of weeks it's possible we might get news that the trial has been expanded direct to Phase III, which will be an enormous fillip. More likely later, due to recruitment, as always.

Rant over. For now! But the delays on this have been simply incredible to me.

As a shareholder I'm encouraged that according to Stockopedia the last time a major shareholder sold down was last July, while since October Polar Capital, Axa Framlington, Chelverton, Jupiter and Southampton (?) have all bought in or increased their stakes.

Rivaldo, it’s a long and very detailed article, which strangely I could access just as a card on my phone Google page in total at first, but not later through the link I have copied and pasted. However I can if I go through the historyOn the phone. Paragraph the last section was titled “Why we like it”:

“ The roll-out of 5G and the evolving nature of the telecoms market provides a highly supportive environment and if growth can be maintained, which appears likely, the shares look interesting value, despite the sharp rise since IPO.

Calnex has an established position in the test and measurement industry, providing equipment to a blue chip customer base, including some of the largest organisations in the world.

The development of cloud computing infrastructure will undoubtedly create new opportunities for test equipment which Calnex seems well-placed to benefit from.

While still small, it has a proven track record of developing innovative and advanced test solutions, for a demanding and highly technical customer base.

Products are distributed through a global network of partners which means the business has a substantial geographic reach despite its small size.

The founder remains a significant (21%) shareholder which means his interests are well-aligned with those of outside shareholders, which include a number of well-regarded small cap institutions.

Revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 16% since 2015 and interim results to 30 September were excellent.

It generates attractive margins (c24%) and returns on capital with a backlog going into FY21 and a strong sales pipeline. With strong cash flow and all debt repaid Calnex is also now a in a strong net cash position.

It benefits from high levels of repeat revenues, with over 80% of revenue over the last three years coming from repeat customers and over the last five years 166 existing customers placing repeat orders.

While still relatively early days on public markets, and we have seen many small businesses stumble after initially making a strong start, Calnex has the benefit of a very supportive telecommunications market backdrop.

Scottish Enterprise remains a significant shareholder and will probably be looking to sell down further once the 12 month lock-in ends, but there are likely to be some very willing acquirers when this time is reached.”

https://www.investorschampion.com/channel/blog/amp/stonking-small-caps-telco-tester-delivers-impressive-growth

Have to admit I haven’t read it yet, but it’s clearly a great advert.

Nickel_Investor is a many post a day person, who was last seen on here back in November. I doubled my money following his/her lead in MTRO, which he was kind enough to rejoice in even though a glitch had forced him out early.

Given his prolific posting and long silence I'm hoping he's alright. Last post was here at 89.5p, so yes, you got it right. Welcome back when you can, Nickel.

Just topped up @5.1p. In XO.

It's squeezed a long way upwards, such a steep climb, and just from that it feels vulnerable to me now for a time. Having topped up twice at 42p I took profits at 79 and now at 91. Still holding half, and will come back for more if I can find the money if it drops back a bit. But it may not: it's being progressively confirmed as a really excellent tool.