Member Info for PUTUP

Typo below

"Options areN'T (yet) shares."

"A Buy Backs campaign followed by a share printing session hints that someone has failed Accounting 101 ;)"

Nah

"have on buybacks ??"

Not sure what you mean but all bought back shares have been cancelled. They no longer exist.

The EBT holds 400k shares.

A share can't receive dividends if it hasn't been created. Options are (yet) shares. Shares held in treasury (note that there are any) don't get dividends as they'd simply round-trip back to the company.

You can get the number of shares on issue/in circulation from the annual report. To get thee fully diluted number you need to add all the outstanding options and subtract the number held in the EBT. Why use the FD number for valuation? Because the probability of vesting is high (and certain with a major corporate event such as a takeover) and thee probability of exercise on vest is 100% (given they are zero cost options). The FD figure is about 5.7% more than the undiluted figure.

"We spent millions on the Buy-Back campaign with no discernable effect on the SP "

Invstrat still doesn't understand buybacks... Mate, with all this grumpiness have you sold out?

It's a block listing not share issuance. The issuance occurs as options are exercised (after vesting - some time after grant). The listing application covers the listing (only) of these shares as and when they're issued. But any sensible person should be using the fully diluted share count for valuation purposes. 228.468 million shares. The listing application itself is a technical matter and of next to no importance.

"The combined storage capacity at PF-1 and PF-2 is approximately 150,000 barrels."

Expect both flow from storage and flow from lifting once the pipeline is reopened. Flow from storage will help them rapidly get back to levels pre-closure.

Don't worry. Opu personally underwrote the company receiving $65m a month from last November. All will be well! (excuse the pun)

Why did you think a shift of this magnitude would be quick?

OMG that has to be the funniest post in a very long while!

Holy crap some people haven't got a clue.

"The 30% yield had a reason"

How's that yield this year? The reason was they were returning excess capital. And it came straight out of the stock price. From one pocket to the other.

"Putup et al claimed I 'panicked', look now... exactly where I said we'd be."

Arma you've been screeching like a panicking chicken for weeks now. Either act or be quiet unless you have something worthwhile to say. You didn't act on your conviction. The world is full of coulda shouldas. The stock flagged a sell signal in my model above £3 and again after Genel's announcement of the move to KBT. I sold both times, but not nearly enough (coulda shoulda me). I bought yesterday. Small, only 25k. We shall have to see how it goes. 150p when production restarts I reckon (2H May). Back towards £2 if we get payments.

Period Old New
3Q 23 $90.00 $77.50
4Q 23 $87.50 $75.00
1Q 24 $85.00 $75.00
2Q 24 $85.00 $77.50
3Q 24 $85.00 $80.00
4Q 24 $85.00 $85.00

And like the US State Department is busy with banks...

Yawn...

Changed my name? Nah, same and only. Been that way since I called "put up or shut up" in 2020. GKP isn't the layup now that it was then, but it's still interesting - at the right price. "called from go one"? Go one was above £3.

Arma, you are the epitome of impatience - and panic. Always over-expecting, denying realities, and then crushed by actualities. Understand the drivers of GKP's profitability, its risks, and have sensible expectations (rather than hype) and you will be disappointed less often. You will also be less (di)stressed. Lastly, don't maintain such concentrated wealth exposure.

GLA a long way to go yet. Restarting production in May is already in the price. More than anything else we need payment for October 22 production.

Don't you just love it when people who got it wrong call those who got it right "trolls"...

PS: Retail have been the only major buyers of significance between the top 10 shareholder analysis dated 29 July 2022 (the last published on the company's website) and the shareholder analysis as of February 28 2023 in the recently published annual report.

I wonder who sold...

Not an unreasonable list BB but it needs to be compared with what's "in the price". I think the following is embedded:

1. Resumption by late May/early June
2. 3. I'm pricing in an additional $9 discount for KBT versus Brent over the $23.20 previously
4. A shock could come here but, personally, I doubt it
5. The market has now discounted these to zero. Only upside if they pay if one buys at current levels or below.

I like the stock below 130p but anyone shouldn't kid themselves of a fast return to £2 without us being paid for 4Q 22 / 1Q 23.

Only yesterday and today has the stock looked remotely cheap