Member Info for PUTUP

The market had already been pricing in a resumption of exports in May

Stock would be much - much - lower if that were the case…

You needn't worry about April! Rest of '23 might be worth about 35-40p per share. The invoices to the KRG are worth about 54p per share (FD basis).

"Apr’s will probably be paid on time"

Oh that's cruel Theoryman!

"I wouldn't worry about money owed if pumps start back"

LOL!

$153m may be a little light. I had $100.5m for 4Q 22 + January. So maybe add $1.5-2m to the $153m.

"Broad where would you get 170?
Putup will know"

While technically correct (invoices for Feb and Mar aren't yet due on a two-three month payables cycle) the RNS is very disingenuous. I make amounts owed for 4Q 22 and 1Q 23 at about $153 million (depending on what the additional discount for KBT is for March).

A bit if reality setting into the stock... For the first time in a while it trades below my view of fair value (assuming write-off of receivables). By just a little.

"Resuming oil is the first hurdle" Mildly positive. Expect oil to be flowing in May
"1. Oil Contacts PSC." Grandfathered as is
"2. Next Payment " Payment for May 23 received in September
"3. Receivables" No freakin idea
"4. Any more Dividends" Not until receivables collected
"5. Capex spend reduction" Only very modestly reduced
"6. Production forecast for 2023." Unchanged range. Need capex to be off the low end.
"7. SOMO tariffs " ????

yeah I sold som at 320.2p. But not nearly enough.

"KRG paid when the isis crisis hit
KRG paid when the coronavirus crisis hit (and oil price went negative)"

Yes. The big difference between then and now is that the KRG are no longer a direct counterpart to field production and development. Who knows how it will go? It's not at all surprising to see these receipts discounted out of the stock price. It's also why a payment for October is so important.

Suspending investment and production post a resolution with SOMO and opening of the pipeline may not go down well with our new master. Of Cours GKP and others will be placing pressure on SOMO/Iraq to ensure they're paid by the KRG. I'd be surprised (deeply relieved) if SOMO took on the obligations of the KRG though. For now we wait. But payment for receivables is needed for meaningful and lasting stock price appreciation.

As I've said before, I believe the PSCs will be grandfathered over (no significant changes). I also believe the current stock price factors in a restart to production late this month or very early next. The MUCH bigger issue is the 4Q 22 and 1Q 23 receivables. These are, IMO, the principal reason for the current discount to fair value. 54p per share and the guys who owe us just got kicked into the back room. We really need to see a payment for October production.

Arma, what percentage of your wealth is tied up in this stock? If it is over 10% you're nuts. Perhaps that's the reason for the extreme stress.

"The value of a company is 1 determined by a multiple of the present income, the yield. 2 the future prospects and a prospective yield, 3 the risk. 4 the market sentiment ( bull or bear ) "

LOL. Only a fool would use simplistic multiples analysis for GKP (or any other company like it).

Not on my charts

"(And from a technical chartist point of view we still have a gap to fill down to 147p albeit I place less reliance on technicals.)"

I guess that gap did need to be filled...

"So how do we see share price, minimum 2 to 3 weeks for resumption, what if 6 to 12 weeks, what if never?!!

10 cent per week?"

Why don't you work out how much one month's production is worth per GKP share? It's not hard to get a broad idea...

I'd be much more worried about the invoices for 4Q 22 and 1Q 23.

I think I will just let that comment hang out there for a bit...

(where's the WTF emoji?)

Y'all better be hoping for 1 as that's basically what's priced into the share... (albeit with significant loss of the receivable balances). GLA.

Slowly but surely filling the gap it left from $79.77?

Yes. Two big risks. Delay in restarting production and non-payment for 4Q 22 and 1Q 23 invoices. I think a restart in April is already priced in +/-. A total loss of invoices isn't. (Or you might say a little of each is priced in - prompt restart in April and recovery eventually of some invoices.) Now, I certainly hope they get paid and I see this as the best catalyst for the stock (versus restarting production per se). IF a delay to restarting production of end April AND a total loss of those invoices were priced into the stock then I'd begin to think about buying. But they aren't yet. (And from a technical chartist point of view we still have a gap to fill down to 147p albeit I place less reliance on technicals.) In the interim it's amusing to watch all the flapping here...