Member Info for PUTUP

Anyone expecting payment before oil is produced is dreaming in my view. Oh I wish that dream would come true but I wouldn't count on it - in fact I'd bet against it. I'd expect the $154 million or so of receivables to be collected - at best - over the next couple of years.

Superb!

(Stock is still range-trading. Weak support at circa 112 and resistance at 130p. Still no news of any substance.)

"Currently, funds must tell the FCA when they have borrowed 0.1% of a company's outstanding stock in order to short it. Now, that threshold will increase to 0.2% of the stock."

Whipdie doo

Bid it up

Absolutely nothing new...

If he knew anything not in the public domain he'd be insider trading... so, arguably, he's betting like the rest of us. All the purchases are under water as of now... Let's see what happens. (I'm about to write off August production for GKP.)

"Putup how's the chin scratching at 1.13? Looks like Mr market has no confidence in money repayment."

Why should they be at the moment? Time again to put up or shut up. Management don't need to sell much oil domestically to cover some costs and gain time and I'd expect them to do so if at all possible. We are back to weak support levels but likely there's more bottling to come. Retail investors, as a class, are apt to sell low buy high.

PS: I agree wholeheartedly with Swell2316. Nothing stopping you moving to Russia... be off.

Only an idiot would think management are "sitting idly by"

I didn't add the last bit...

I will need to lower these to be in line with MS.

Aug 75

Sep 75

Oct 70

Nov 70

Dec 70

For now I leave my perp assumption unchanged but note a $5 move in such is 17p per share.

"Demand growth is likely to slow down as the post-covid recovery tailwinds come to an end after 2023. Multi-year forecasts have wide uncertainty intervals but on current trends, and despite low investment, there is little tightness on the horizon.Expect prices to remain soft as market focus shifts to early 2024: By now, OPEC market share is declining and spare capacity is building. As non-OPEC supply growth will likely exceed global demand growth in 2024, these trends may well continue. We still see inventory draws in 3Q, mostly driven by OPEC cuts and positive seasonality. This should keep Brent supported in the mid-70s. Much depends on additional voluntary cuts from key OPEC members, but in our base case scenario the market loosens in 4Q and turns into surplus in 1H24. As the market's focus shift from 2H23 stock draws to 1H24 stock builds, we expect Brent to moderate towards $70/bbl.US shale should still prove a floor for Brent in the high-60s: Average shale break-evens are still well below current WTI prices. However, there is wide distribution around the median break-even. With WTI in the mid-to-low 60s, around 30% of shale wells would be 'out of the money', suggesting US production growth would decelerate. This likely provides supports for Brent in the high 60s."

My current assumption for the long-term oil price of $65 doesn't seem particularly conservative... FWIW my model currently assumes a return to full production by GKP in August with the following prices for Brent (and $65 beyond in perpetuity).

Aug 77.5

Sep 77.5

Oct 75.0

Nov 75.0

Dec 75.0

"b) don’t open our export valves until the payments due (+interest) from the tribals selling our produce illegally, and pocketing it, are safely in our bank. "

Unfortunately - and I agree with your sentiment but... - my bet is they've spent all the money they received from selling that oil and so now the only way to get receivables paid is to lift more oil. I expect receivables to be recovered over several years and certainly not before oil starts flowing again. Discount that 54p per share accordingly...

LOL. Who would lend money to a company that isn't producing any revenue and has negative free cash flow?

Things often appear less complex from the peanut gallery

"How do you think someone like Bill Gates, who has as much expertise and qualification as the rest of us in certain fields, ie none, becomes the most powerful single figure in world health and 'climate science' and be the public face of them?"

I'd say likely he has a brain much better capable than any of us here. But his brain isn't so much the point. He has the money and sponsorship to attract relevant experts to projects. The malaria vaccine project is a classic case in point. He steps up to the plate. The world should be thankful that he (and Melinda) has chosen to spend his money in this way rather than flitting its away on Eastern European bimbos, mega yachts or other vanity projects such as sports teams etc.

Last month? Wind back to February immediately following the Genel RNS on the impact of the move to KBT and before that to June last year when I said the stock was expensive above £3. Unfortunately, I didn't sell enough at the time. Now (and perhaps the next few months) would be a great time to be sitting quietly on the bid and averaging back in... assuming things come right eventually.

I said 129p was what my model was giving as fair value ex receivables as of end June. Fair value isn't "cheap", it's "fair". Given the stock is now reasonably below such level I can now say it is finally looking "somewhat cheap" (ex receivables).

Finally looking somewhat cheap again (ex receivables). Of course it can get cheaper still... but I think this isn't the same situation that drove the panic that set in with the onset of covid. There's still many months for things to sort themselves out and now, finally, the stock has discounted this.

"That is a loss of £410,000 from £3.20 on current price. "

To be fair there were some dividends in between. But maybe he reinvested them.

Whatever happened to Opu? Locked in a cupboard by his spouse having put her into the stock at a level more than double current? On another cruise 'paid for' by GKP dividends?

Finally reached an element of technical support (116/7p). Whether it holds or not is another thing completely...

I propose a simple GKP trading algorithm: the Arma Meter. Count the 'all is lost' wails per day and, conversely, the 'all is golden' ramps on the upside. Trade counter to them. You'll probably be fine.