Member Info for PUTUP

5% good for these risks? You're nuts. One can get that on $ cash deposits. The US government pays 4% for two years. I'm demanding at least 20% for GKP risk.

GKP could and should do a lot better than HKN. They need to provide better guidance on KBT versus Brent, what payments would have been under each scenario (historically) and guidance for estimating future payments. We also need to know which months in 2022 are subject to discussion vs simple arrears based on Brent pricing. Clearly there is a battle going on regarding this transition and it is likely this that which is holding up payments (in the very least). The company has a forthcoming update. Let's see how well they do and judge them then.

Ever tried to DM me? I don't pay for that ability here.

I just share my own thoughts which are fairly straightforward: We need information and progress on production, and to be paid, for the stock price to rally. I think we will get it - eventually (which is why I retain my holding). As the company pays out capital (dividends) it is worth commensurately less. Roughly we have a £1 per share value in cash and receivables, about 12p in the CRP and the rest is the value the market is placing on the future Profit Oil stream. It's the KRG that own the field and decide how much to invest in it. (That's why we have an FDP - it's the length of rope which tethers the company's ability to spend the KRG's money.) The company does their bidding while trying to influence and providing technical assistance. Current, weak, production is largely in the stock price (at a conservative long term oil price and healthy RRoE). Growth isn't, but growth has been hard to achieve of late so it's perhaps not too surprising that it has been discounted away. I think the price of oil will remain more or less where it is for the next 3-6 months before strengthening. So there's a good number of things that can swing in the stock price's favour. Stratospheric expectations are unlikely to be met however.

Good luck!

"Want to explain that? Why would K have to 'switch avatars again?"

I've no idea. You'd have to ask him. You been on the sauce? This is unlike you.

Huh?

I'm going back to sleep. After I finish reading the latest from Martijn Rats on where he thinks oil is going this year.

Let's wait for an update from the company. The last one was awful. Hopefully we get better news from here.

(For the record I am an individual, I work for no one but myself, and I have no relationship with anyone here outside of the banter here.)

You still don't understand the business model

The KRG is the investor in the field. The Contractor takes (relatively short term) recovery risk, but it is the KRG that ultimately spends the money.

Opu for Chairman! He seems to think getting to 55k, 85k and beyond is easy! Clearly JH needs help from the big man.

Straycat - pity it wasn't on LongStrong's list eh?

Yes, the KRG - they are the ones paying for all the capex - must be rather unhappy with things, particularly the bad fourth quarter '22. Their field, their expenditure, their assets. Luckily the Contractor only 'pays' for the Profit Oil foregone. And now the KRG has to pay for gas re-injection which I assume has limited benefit in production volumes. (If I'm wrong on this last point please do explain.)

TH, I have no view see moving to KBT but it would be good to get some quality insight.

Here's to a better '23!

"So thinking about this what could drive a rerate?

- formalisation of oil and gas law?
- approvals of FDP?
-‘move to $100+ oil price?"

They need to lift more oil. Plain and simple.

Remind me: who was it that earlier this year suggested Tesla stock was a pillar of fundamental valuation?

It's all gone QAnon....

Handbags at dawn

"It would just have been a perfect opportunity to hit the 55k and at least finish off with that target hit."

Yes. Instead we found out production plummeted about 6% in the last 3 1/2 months. Previously, even with downturns in April and July/August production had averaged 44,950 barrels per day in the year to end Aug. YTD until Dec 17 it was 44,100. That means the last three and a half months averaged about 42,400 or so. Yikes. That's below April's figure. Luckily not a lot of good news was in the stock price pre announcement. Hopefully the company follows with frequent updates to rebuild confidence in their ability to lift oil. How much more oil will be lifted as a direct result of gas re-injection capital expenditure?

"Record dividends paid in 2022 of $215 million, representing a sector-leading dividend yield of 41% based on GKP’s closing price on 16 December 2022"

Just to put this statement in some perspective, to have received this yield in 2022 one would have had to purchase or held stock ahead of 9 Feb (the last day of record for the first dividend) at a price equal to or better than the closing price on 16 December (or later at even better prices to make up for the missed dividend - hint: it wasn't possible) AND have sold at that price or better. Assuming one held all the way through to 16 Dec there was just one opportunity to have made such a purchase: early on the first trading day of the year 4 Jan. Any other buy throughout the year will have done worse, some massively so. And that assumes no tax is paid on the dividends received... Very few buys in 2022 achieved the published yield.

Yes the published YIELD is meaningless.

As to your "of course its comes from sales" I've no idea where you are headed with that one. I said it comes off the share price. The company is returning excess capital. It's not sustainable. The share price will CONTINUE to correct for money leaving the company as dividends. Lifting more oil will help top it up but the excessive receipts from cost recovery are drawing to an end with January's production. Over half of the company's current market cap is in cash, receivables and a little CRP. None of these earn anything to top up the price further. The profit oil revenue stream really has its work cut out for it given high capital repatriation and, lately, disappointing production. Hopefully production gets a boost in 1Q 2023.

"bot" ? Haha.

Plus dividends come straight out of the share price. If they hadn't paid them they'd have more cash and a higher share value. A published yield is meaningless.

Arma, what's your current yield on your last purchases cum dividend?

Discount to Brent has been $23.1 (incl transport tariffs)

Ugh. Not a good one. Disappointing production. Lower end of guidance and stuck at 44.4k currently. Will have to revise down my forecasts for Sep-Dec this year. Cash about as expected. Nothing surprising about this statement:

"We are currently in the process of agreeing the 2023 work programme with our partner and look forward to providing production, capex and opex guidance in the new year"

Dividend yield is meaningless as depends on each individual's entry AND exit points (and tax). About the best thing is Jaap leaving.

"Then they proceeded to give back 100s millions in Divis"

Because they don't need that level of capital to do the next FDP.

We will likely have to wait until January for an update but, in my opinion, near term production success is almost more important than the FDP. (1) it's in the present rather than the future and (2) it's the base that funds the next stage of field development. Fingers crossed the update is a good one.

Have a great festive season everyone!