Member Info for PUTUP

The FDP defines the scope of permission the KRG gives to the Contractor to spend the KRG's money (the Contractor spends but the KRG is obliged to reimburse their expenditure via the PSC). If the KRG is willing to spend freely the FDP is large in scope and time. If not, the 'FDP' shrinks to near term approval of incremental investment (such as what we have now). It is perhaps unsurprising, given very limited production growth yoy, that there's been no rush to let the Contractor have a long leash.

Machersman, the FCA Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules sourcebook provides everything you need to know. GKP is a non-UK issuer. Section 5.1.2:

"A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within ¦ DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:
(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within ¦ DTR 5.3.1 R; or
(2) reaches, exceeds or falls below an applicable threshold in (1) as a result of events changing the breakdown of voting rights and on the basis of information disclosed by the issuer in accordance with
¦ DTR 5.6.1 Rand ¦ DTR 5.6.1A R;
and in the case of an issuer which is not incorporated in the United Kingdom a notification under (2) must be made on the basis of equivalent events and disclosed information."

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR.pdf

Opu = Todd

Assuming 2016 was appropriate... "GKP I" went bankrupt around then. Of course that also omits the fact that a lot of cash has been paid out of the company since then. As is often the case, cursory comparisons are grossly misleading.

Opu is on the crack pipe again.

CPR doesn't mean sh*te if you can't pull it out of the ground.

Here's looking forward to 50k by year end. They need to do better than 1.8% YOY production growth. Hopefully they do better than the midpoint of their guidance for the year. Chug chug.

The company's guidance for the year is to achieve an average production of between 46k and 52k. The midpoint of that range would represent 11% growth on '22 which, in turn, was 1.8% higher than '20.

An expectation of 85k would be pure fantasy.

With only three trading days left before it goes ex, a rise to cum div 240p would be a nice rally indeed... Let's see. Hopefully we get a further update on production and how much it has been affected by the terminal closure. At the very least it would be nice to know if we are back at 'full' production. And of course the very large elephant in the room is the impact of any move to KBT. The company could not over-communicate in the near term.

Peel Hunt's research report has been around for a month and a half. You'd think any information value it contained would be well embedded by now.

Just ripping along

"In 7th Feb RNS, it was inferred that production was unaffected"

Quite the opposite

I wonder just how much they had to curtail production and whether they are now able to resume to full production rates. Looking forward to more updates from the company. After the awful 4Q we need a much better Q1.

"The facilities have storage capacity to allow continued production at a curtailed rate over the next few days after which the Company would suspend production until pipeline export operations resume."

What matters is who was more motivated. Every Buy is also a Sell and every Sell is a Buy. They're indistinguishable. All had a buyer and seller. To flag a trade as a Buy vs a Sell is nonsense.

Each and every trade is a 'buy' AND a 'sell'

"As for production, I can certainly see 50,000 bopd being achievable for 2023 as long as SH17 & 18 are at least average wells."

FWIW the mid point of the company's 2023 guidance suggests they hit 50k in 4Q (or do worse earlier in the year and then hit it sooner to recover). So, yes, hopefully this year we hit 50k per month. (In my experience management teams like to guide such that their own expectations/modelling are at least in the middle of the top half of the range.) A year or so ago, however, we were expecting to hit 55k and the last year has been a reminder that hitting production goals is never easy. We will have to see how the year unfolds.

"PUTUP I like reading most of your posts, but your last one about productions numbers is sadly totally wrong. The 14th Sept presentation put average production for the year to date number as at 31st August at @ 45,000 bopd. The next official update on 19th Dec, put the year to date figure at 44,100 (to 17th Dec) with current production at 44,400 on that date as well."

From the company's presentation and previously published figures:

Jan-Aug
46,100
45,400
44,800
42,600
44,700
46,000
45,200
44,800

3Q 44.7k (latest presentation) So you can solve for September.

4Q 42.2k (latest presentation) We know the hit to production came sometime in Oct/Nov with some recovery in December.

Year production average 44.2k

So we don't know the mix of Oct/Nov/Dec but we know things were improving in December. For now, I have the following for Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec

44,100 (solved for as above)
41,000
41,000
44,740

Couple these with the actuals above and you get a average for the year of 44,202 which is exactly the same as the company's disclosure for 2022. So the mix may be off a little but likely not massively so.

Looks like production for September averaged about 44,100 bopd.

For now I am assuming 41k for each of Oct and Nov and 44.7k for Dec. Unfortunately Oct and Nov were great months for the oil price. Dec much less so.

2022/21 production growth was a mere 1.8%.

A pretty crap presentation IMO. No real discussion of the substantially increasing payment delays (in fact the chart provided could well be regarded as misleading because at a casual glance it makes it look like things are/will improving) and what, if anything, can be done about it. No discussion of the potential impact of shifting to KBT. No updated guidance on CRP or R Factor. No detail on 4Q production. Etc. Basically they pulled together the bare minimum. As always, however, the interesting part of corporate presentations is in the Q&A drilling investors give presenters. Unfortunately we don't get to observe this.

One thing in hobione's favour - just this one last time - is that the company has yet to receive payment for the last four months of 2022. While estimating this is hard at the moment because, while we know production took a real whack in the fourth quarter, we don't yet have actual monthly numbers. But we do have the total for the year and the levels for January through August and can make some assumptions. We have also a good idea of the price of Brent. Yet we don't yet know the impact of any shift to KBT. So receipts for the last four months are quite uncertain. Best case they're about $125 million although it seems likely that this figure will be significantly impacted by a shift to KBT. Yet all of this - if indeed received - could be paid out. Could. So the draw on the existing cash pile to pay out $150 million, the low end of hobione's optimistic range, might well only be (best case) the already announced $25 million. So could a payout of $150 million be possible? Yes, although I very much doubt it. (Personally I expect no more than $100 million and more likely half that.)

But next to none of this is being generated from this year's production. Just plug in the mid points of management's guidance for production, lifting costs and capex (plus make some basic assumptions on direct G&A and corporate overhead) and you can estimate the company's free cash flow for any assumed oil price. If, for example, the reference price for oil is $70 a barrel during the year (be it remaining at Brent or shifting to KBT) the company only generates about $35 million in free cash flow from sales of 2023 production. Add to that the little balance of CRP that's left as of end 2022. You can only pay out what you have on hand and what you generate. (And a cash buffer will need to be retained.)

The essence of damofarl's points are correct but they've yet to collect the last few months' of super gains.

A $10 per barrel hit. Ouch. What might that be worth if sustained as an additional discount vs Brent? On production of 50k it's likely about 30p per share (+/-). Ugh.

They posted the RNS on their website on 11 November 2022

Interestingly, the gross payment was $0.2 million more than I had modeled but the net to GKP was $0.6 million less. I need to take a closer look at this...

A bit less than I was expecting but still within 2% which is good enough for forecasting. Of course we only have averages for the month and actual receipts will likely be determined on a daily basis. Plus the R Factor is beginning to bite a little. (About $0.2 million.) Agreed, September to December are the interesting ones. We know the 4th quarter was a disaster. At least August's receipt is there to be paid out of the company.