Member Info for PSB123

Oops meant $ not £. Still not far off our market cap pre suspension

Real generation of £225m (revenue minus opex minus capex)

Looks incredibly healthy to me.

Plus promise of a dividend for the 2022 year (although smallish to begin with)

Only disappointment is not allowing PIs into the placing. It really would have been easy to use Primary Bid and give an allocation to existing investors only at the same price.

I guarantee if it wasn’t ready people will be working over the weekend until it is. This is so far from the kind of thing that tools get downed for at 5pm it’s not even a question.

I’d expected to see it this evening but if not I fully expect a 7am RNS on Monday. Hopefully they give us a day to read it though rather than readmission at 8am

I couldn’t maker the presentation today. Anyone know if there is a recording / playback available please?

To be fair I’ve been in a number of the same shares as Trek and rate him as an investor and he generally calls it as he sees it and gives good commentary, one of the better ones on LSE.

I disagree here and think AVCT still has far to run but abusing Trek is nuts, he is not the same as the blatant derampers that do come on here

If that’s right about Orient Gene the message needs to get out there loud and clear as there is a danger that otherwise the narrative becomes ‘oh yeah, the Innova ones weren’t that good and were banned by the FDA but that’s ok, we’ve stopped using them now and these Orient Gene tests are much better’. If Orient Gene are also now banned by the FDA then media, MPs, etc need to be made aware so they can challenge that narrative before it gets started

Are Medusa actually confirmed as manufacturers?

I know we all think they will and it seems likely but I don’t think I’ve seen this confirmed anywhere officially

Analysis by the Economist - essentially the best data analysis you are likely to find published anywhere - shows 7-13m excess deaths worldwide since Covid started with a best estimate of over 10m deaths caused by Covid or associated complications (unable to access health care, etc).

Excess deaths in Britain have been repeatedly confirmed to be higher than the reported deaths, largely because there was so little testing at the beginning of the pandemic.

there was an increase in discharge rate at day 14 and a decrease in mortality at day 28. The time to negative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was shown to be significantly shortened in patients receiving IFN-ß, along with a lower nasopharyngeal viral load. Further, patients receiving IFN-ß had a less significant rise in IL-6. IFN-ß was shown to decrease intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate, the requirement of invasive ventilation in severe cases, and improve the survival rate compared to control groups. There were no severe adverse events reported. Our review found that patients who received early treatment with IFN-ß experienced significantly reduced length of hospitalization, mortality, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation. A greater chance of clinical improvement and improved imaging studies was noted in patients who received IFN-ß

I always think it’s a good idea to be able to summarise the key reasons to buy in a succinct manner. I’ve had a go below, would be great to see anyone add to this:

- Actively in phase three trials in numerous countries around the world for SNG001
- In US Activ-2 programme at phase two with strong potential to move to phase three and possible EUA from the FDA
- Phase 2 data to date described as ‘best in the world’ amongst prospective Covid treatments
- In terms of scale suggested at 100k treatments per month. Competitive products sold at over $1k per treatment

All sounds pretty compelling. What would you add to this?

Sorry, I know I’m being slow here.

What’s the big 5?

Sorry, £5 each for 250

I read that as £7 each when you buy 25 and £6 each for 250 tests (10 lots of 25)

A reminder.

1-2 million capacity a day
€1-2 PROFIT per device
Minimum 3-5 years high volumes of testing around the world
Best LFT out there
Previously told we will sell all we can make

Do the maths and work out what the market cap should be

Plus AVA600 dosing starting in three weeks

Plus fully funded to 2023 even without the covid revenue

Falls are way, way overdone from a minor disappointment that sales weren’t announced in one presentation on a random date

Despite the over reaction in the SP there was one big bit of news today and it was a huge positive.

We’ve always felt that we will sell all that we can make and that the limit will be manufacturing. Well today we heard definitely that there is access to *at least* production of 1m LFTs a day.

Given that a few weeks ago we were at 270p and talking about the market pricing in 5m units a month that is huge.

At €1-2 profit per LFT and a strong expectation of testing at scale being around for years that volume could easily propel Avacta into a multi billion pound company.

Great news on dosing of AVA6000 in three weeks time too but the LFT volume was clearly the biggest news by far once you look past the very short term disappointment of not announcing sales volumes yet

Bumping this’d thread as as reminder of the potential profitability outlined this morning

Key tale outs from the call

Up to 1m a day capacity
£1-2 per unit margin even with recent price competition
Strong expectation of high levels of testing for at least the next 3-5 years
One of, if not the, best tests in the world. Don’t need to compete on price because of quality

So up to £700m year PROFIT for years to come

AVA6000 first dosing in next 3 weeks or so
Lots of very, very exciting potential there too on top of diagnostics

Plenty to be excited about!!!

Morning. Does anyone have any strong thoughts about how to value SNG if SNG001 gets an EUA?

I don’t mean random SP predictions but I’m interested in any informed views / educated guesses on potential pricing, margin and volumes. Appreciate it’s difficult to forecast but I’d love to hear people’s realistic views.

The SP is up over 45 pence in the last day and a half of trading and ended the week rising strongly.

The main competition is dead in the water.

Now approved in both UK and EU.

We were told that delays to approval wouldn’t affect sales suggesting advanced negotiations.

I’d suggest sentiment is pretty strong right now!!!!!!!

Suggest everyone floods the comments on these stories with references to Avacta. Might be the best chance to get attention