The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
A reminder.
1-2 million capacity a day
€1-2 PROFIT per device
Minimum 3-5 years high volumes of testing around the world
Best LFT out there
Previously told we will sell all we can make
Do the maths and work out what the market cap should be
Plus AVA600 dosing starting in three weeks
Plus fully funded to 2023 even without the covid revenue
Falls are way, way overdone from a minor disappointment that sales weren’t announced in one presentation on a random date
Despite the over reaction in the SP there was one big bit of news today and it was a huge positive.
We’ve always felt that we will sell all that we can make and that the limit will be manufacturing. Well today we heard definitely that there is access to *at least* production of 1m LFTs a day.
Given that a few weeks ago we were at 270p and talking about the market pricing in 5m units a month that is huge.
At €1-2 profit per LFT and a strong expectation of testing at scale being around for years that volume could easily propel Avacta into a multi billion pound company.
Great news on dosing of AVA6000 in three weeks time too but the LFT volume was clearly the biggest news by far once you look past the very short term disappointment of not announcing sales volumes yet
Key tale outs from the call
Up to 1m a day capacity
£1-2 per unit margin even with recent price competition
Strong expectation of high levels of testing for at least the next 3-5 years
One of, if not the, best tests in the world. Don’t need to compete on price because of quality
So up to £700m year PROFIT for years to come
AVA6000 first dosing in next 3 weeks or so
Lots of very, very exciting potential there too on top of diagnostics
Plenty to be excited about!!!
Morning. Does anyone have any strong thoughts about how to value SNG if SNG001 gets an EUA?
I don’t mean random SP predictions but I’m interested in any informed views / educated guesses on potential pricing, margin and volumes. Appreciate it’s difficult to forecast but I’d love to hear people’s realistic views.
The SP is up over 45 pence in the last day and a half of trading and ended the week rising strongly.
The main competition is dead in the water.
Now approved in both UK and EU.
We were told that delays to approval wouldn’t affect sales suggesting advanced negotiations.
I’d suggest sentiment is pretty strong right now!!!!!!!
Similar story to Guardian, Daily Mail and Independent but now in The Times too
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-raises-alarm-over-innova-medical-group-covid-test-kits-used-in-britain-fqvqwpcwz
I got a reply, copied below. Suggest it’s worth a number of emails from investors to keep this front of his mind and get him to pressure Han**** on it
‘Thank you for your email.
I continue to discuss coronavirus testing with my colleagues in the Department for Health and Social Care on a regular basis, and I will mention your concerns and the Avacta test to the Minister when I next meet him in the Lobby. ‘
I’ve emailed him asking what he is doing as our local MP to pressure the UK government to procure the dramatically support Avacta tests instead of the Chinese imports from Innova. Won’t hurt for him to get a few emails along the same lines
I can’t remember the exact wording used but I took away no further dilution for M&A and even wrote that in my notes.
I definitely left with the impression that any acquisition would be debt funded but I’ll be honest I assumed it would be after the refinancing
So we’re expecting further data to be released this month. Any (educated) guesses at roughly when?
If it was a worked trade why would it show twice? (Ie the buys are the same as the sell so it would suggest two trades rather than one and why at different prices???)
Agree it’s a big coincidence though and a good spot
Roll over maybe?