Member Info for PSB123

Nice £110k share purchase by the chair as soon as results are reported and closed period lifted to boot

Very pleasing results this morning reflected in the SP.

Key thing is the managed to grow profitability, total customers and return on equity in the very worst part of the cycle, the cycle has now turned and Admiral are ahead of the market having raised prices first. Very, very good place to be looking forwards

- Premiums up very significantly

- Inflation (finally) coming down

- Those two things together should mean greatly improved margins

- Higher interest rates means much higher interest earned on the group’s substantial ’float’ which should boost profits too

- A bit of momentum, an excellent dividend and a quality FTSE 100 business. These shares were at £35+ not long ago and the cycle is clearly turning very favourable again

Great to have you back and love the summary at the end.

Assuming all that happens I can confidently say we will be a very happy set of investors.

Surely north of 89p too ;-)

I finally got into the AGM about 10-15 mins late. Yes, nothing shared at all on Chad / Cameroon or SS. Nigeria looks very good and Niger highly promising. My best guess is we eventually exit both Chad and Cameroon with our money back and a small return (via arbitration if necessary) and South Sudan completes this quarter with another mid sized acquisition announced and shares lifted from suspension but lots of possibilities either way. I’m not particularly bothered about the suspension as long as the underlying business continues to do well - at least it protects us from wild emotional swings (both up and down) on rumours about how the various deals are going

Absolute farce

I still don’t have a link. Does anyone have it?

Actually think there are huge positives today.

The placing was always on the cards and dragging the SP down. That risk is now gone.

The new CEO was needed and is now in place.

The assets remain fantastic, there is just no volume.

A bit of momentum, some positive storytelling this moves up very quickly from here. Not long ago we raised at 40p with a lower gold price and there was lots of excitement about ‘gold everywhere’. That excitement has been lost but should come back quite quickly with new management. Very excited for the future here and prices here are a gift. I’ve topped up a substantial holding this morning

We earn is usd and have costs in naira right?

I know everyone is understandably focussed on deal timings and speculation around further acquisitions but worth also noting that this is another exceptional set of results from Nigeria in particular. Savannah are definitely developing a reputation for smashing their guidance, also much, much better to see under promising and over delivering than the other way around!!!

Worth noting gold price too.

Up to $1860 this morning and on a strong upward trend from lows of $1600 ish a few months ago. Landore NPV was based on a gold price of $1800 and is very sensitive to it (10% rise in gold price increased NPV by 30%). Very, very good trend for LND and lots of central banks around the world buying gold in record amounts to protect them from the strong dollar. Lots more to come here

Gold up to $1775 and ticking up a little more each day. Huge recovery from coming close to touching $1600 only a couple of weeks ago.

Very, very good for Landore given the sensitivity of the NPV to the good price.

No question that this become one of the most undervalued shares I’ve ever seen for a company with real assets.

The market cap is now something like 7% of the net present value in the feasibility study for the gold.

Stating the obvious but you could fully find the gold mine, get your money back completely in 18 months then make a 15x return on investment after discounting the future cash flows for inflation.

And that’s just the gold. There are battery metals too, a couple of million pounds in the bank and other assets.

Between ‘the market’ not understanding the value, the board not communicating well and a delay to the strategic review / sale process the share price has got into a mess but there is deep, deep value to be had here. I added quite a lot more today and am very confident of a very good return on it. The market makes mistakes from time to time but true value will always out in the end and the assets are there, this isn’t a speculative punt

There is interest, need more time to conclude discussions. Shortlisted suitors conducting DD.

No need to raise, very valuable assets. This is well oversold now and huge upside from here.

Obviously I’d have preferred a sale now and some of that value to be released but happy to wait for what should still be a very, very strong return

The research note from Cenkos (house broker) yesterday said the sale plus the warrants earlier in the summer meant we were fully funded to complete the planned drilling campaign. Of course the strategic review could still mean that isn’t necessary but we should be clear that yesterday’s announcement does more than just ‘buy us time’

Here. Waiting patiently and expecting good news at the end of the month. I’ve got a substantial position here and added a couple of small top ups at these suppressed prices over the last few weeks.

The fundamental analysis here is the assets are worth far, far more than the market cap and management are actively exploring a sell. It’s easy to imagine a substantial return from here in very short order but in the mean time patience is key. Hopefully not for much longer as we should get an indication of expressions of interest soon after the window closes at the end of the month

That future margin drop is bad.

Guidance was for 4% now 3% means they are saying a quarter of their future profits have eroded compared to what they were previously guiding to.

Hidden away in some half decent looking backwards results but doesn’t bode well for the future

Not trying to be a troll here.. but.

I’m genuinely curious about why people expect this top do well / bounce back. What you are basing your valuations on.

The company has literally never made a profit except in years with lockdowns and the consensus forecasts which only go out to 22 and 23 are for losses both years and declining revenue. Prior to this raise they have £100m net debt and a liquidity crunch. There is a recession coming and they sell high value discretionary goods with very low margins. They don’t, and have never, paid a dividend as they don’t really generate any cash, in fact free cash flow has been negative in every year except those with lockdowns (it the completion were closed and people had excess cash as they weren’t going out). Even today they are still valued at 4.5x tangible book value. I’m struggling to see the investment case here.

I guess the counter argument is a strong belief in structural change to more online shopping and that they can grow too multiple times current size with a dominant market share and start generating significant cash in the future?

Please don’t attack me a troll, just stating some facts and trying to help the debate on the board.

Not sure I would touch this at 43p.

Seems a ballsy move to go for a price that high with the free fall the SP is in, imminent recession and lack of profitability outside lockdowns. I assume the comments on sounding out major shareholders have given them confidence they’ll get it away at that price. Good luck all holders, hope this works out for you

Nothing is going on. All that looks at is price vs averages, the price has raised well lately so it suggests to sell as we’re priced above rolling averages.

What is doesn’t take account of is the amazing progress of the business, new sales contracts, transformational deals, high oil price, etc that have driven that rise.

On a share like this with so much going on the ‘technicals’ are pointless and best ignored. Of course the SP is going to increase when the business is making so much progress. Technicals are best used for low volatility markets where there isn’t transformational change underway that they can’t keep up with