Member Info for ps200306

"Well a**h**e, tell me why the price has fallen to that when the asset underlying that price is still there and with new technology has been proven to be even bigger than the original? "

You're saying that since the underlying asset hasn't changed, the share price would be similarly unchanged if it weren't for those pesky algos? You total gombeen! Apart from nutters like you who hang around and troll obscure message boards, how many other people are happy for their money to be sitting around for years earning nothing? How many people are confident that the company is on the verge of unlocking the oil after failing to do so for seven years? Thanks for also proving that you know nothing about the definition of proven oil reserves, which includes operating conditions and the regulatory and contractual environment. Oh, and I've got shares in a flint quarry in Sligo to sell you. Fabulous for making hand axes and arrow heads ... very valuable during the neolithic and the asset underlying that price is still there.

"algos have been responsible for Providence's share price falling from £5 down to 3p over the years"

The stupidity is mind boggling. Manyana, you used to say the odd sensible thing worth reading. No longer. Now you're just a disagreeable git. You're on my filter list as soon as I get round to it. Bronx was right.

Who cares about seeing the Tendrara project through unless we retain enough of it to make it worth our while? Agree with PNE, a decent dividend is what it's all about. Once that is established the share price will rise to reflect it, giving people who want to exit their chance as well. One thing's for sure -- this share is not going to soar on pure hype ever again, and will be in the doldrums until material progress is made toward actual, real-world, stuff-flowing-out-of-the-ground, production. I've topped up 1.4m in the last few months. Prob went off too early. No rush to do next top-up, it's going nowhere for a while.

I thought this board was for *victims* of robbery.

Oh and ... the average daily trade in PVR across both London and Dublin exchanges in the last three months has fallen to an almost negligible 0.15% of the issued shares. Those robots must have seized up for want of a drop of oil. I picture them as the Tin Man from the movie, with Manyana as the Wizard of Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

LOL. Yes, robots crashed PVR's share price. Nothing to do with the management achieving diddly squat for the last four years.

PVR is a binary bet. In the very unlikely looking event that the management finally come good it is worth many multiples of the current price. The more likely alternative is that it goes to the wall. There are not that many rolls of the dice left. Although there are doubtless a few burned investors who will put up additional cash to keep the lights on and the hopes alive, the reality is that the license will eventually expire for want of a partner with deep enough pockets to bring the oil to production.

As for those "algos" ... why would they want the price at 3p? The key to making money for algos is volatility, not low price. They will take advantage of every surge on some vague good news, and burn another raft of investors.

Manyana, you're an idiot and a hypocrite. Read your own post. "Why do I think MOST Irish people are up their own rear ends?" ... based on a single anecdote. You're a misery guts who doubtless tears the soul out of anyone unlucky enough to be in your sphere. And billions are going to die of pollution? You giant gallumphing eejit!

partridge, I already posted Sarah Dees' reply to me asking the same question. She said: "...it is the intent that Sound Energy would see the same proportionate value from the transaction whether it be a farm down of 24.2% or 33.2%."

I take that to mean that we won't pay over the odds for carry in the case of further farmdown. Both me and Soundingoff posted the relevant numbers.

Gregory1yz, I'm not fond of vampires myself but I've an even greater aversion to trolls. Silversleaves, a minimum standard of intelligible comment is desirable. Welcome both to my filter list ! :-)

"ignores": [ "bongabob, chipandputt, chrisma, crudehope, Gaspunter, GekkoJr, Gregory1yz, JezTheFez, Jobbinscl, Jones1980, koozer, mahatmajacket, Mickeytentoes, n4aPound, Petroleonline, Pontcanna, redmouse2812, seaton7392, Shaungreen47, Silversleaves, simonthezealot, Sounder, Tradesmakes, wh0sthedaddy, Yorkshireman" ]

Manyana, I get it. You've got a massive chip on your shoulder due to a careless comment made by someone 50 years ago. My advice is to get over it -- you will be much happier.

Also, what a complete hypocrite you are. You rail against climate protesters who think we're all going to die of overheating soon. Then it turns out you think we're all going to die of overpopulation within twenty years. The only difference between you and them is that you think you'll manage to die of old age first. You are as idiotic as they are, and a damn sight more cynical.

Manyana, why are you generalising about Irish people? Do German people think the world starts and ends in the German rust belt? You might think so from the coal mine invasions yesterday and in June and September. The Extinction Rebellion types (and Ende Gelände in Deutschland) believe the world is coming to an end without immediate and dramatic action on climate change. As yesterday's protest spokeswoman explained, "once the world heats up by 1.5 degrees it will start auto-heating". Now, something may have been lost in translation -- I presume she is talking about a so-called tipping point -- but these people pretty much believe the world will burst into flames if we don't go back to the dark ages as quick as a donkey and cart can take us there.

They also have a crusading moralistic outlook. The young lady didn't care about the tens of thousands of jobs involved as much as for "the global south" which would be affected by climate change. I expect she hasn't asked "the global south" if they'd prefer the standard of living of the Bundesrepublik or of Prussian serfs. There was also no sense of irony that Germany was burning its way through its lignite because of its ill-judged and sanctimonious abandonment of clean nuclear energy since 2000. So now you have German nuclear being rapidly phased out, the Ende Gelände waging war on coal, and Trump lambasting Germany for prostituting itself for Russian gas. Two thirds of German electricity comes from these sources, and half of home heating. And the irony is that nuclear and gas had huge potential to reduce German CO2 emissions.

The same sort of sanctimony will be behind the Irish importation of French nuclear electricity when the new interconnector opens next year. For a certain mostly affluent subset of the population, it is all about being seen to be saying and doing the right thing. They are either ignorant of, or immune to, the consequences of their actions. Most importantly, they believe our sins against the planet can only be purged by energy asceticism ... and maybe stripping electric cables to make flagella to beat ourselves with.

BlueDefender, the overall deal depends on what percentage of Eastern Morocco is farmed down by SOU -- there is an option for an extra 9% for the purchaser in the first year. SOU gets a certain amount of cash in each scenario, and a certain amount of carry for the infrastructure needed to get to first gas. Those numbers are here: https://i.imgur.com/2dwScxX.png

Then there is the value of the gas once in production. A daily volume of 60 Mmcf is anticipated, with half of that fetching a guaranteed price of $8 per mcf. So the total output could be worth $175m per year. SOU's share is in proportion to the percentage retained, in the numbers linked above. Possible annual dividend of GBP 1 - 2p per share. Then there is the opportunity for further exploration.

Oh right. I don't think it ever really had PVR's name on it without a more definite schedule and some moolah.

"mener riggselskapene må være forberedt på å tilby flere tjenester og bore billigere enn før" ... something tells me rig prices are the least of Providence's worries right now.

I don't think I would have made all the points in the letter myself, but I have no problem whatever with it being sent. There is nothing abusive or defamatory. The BOD should be willing to answer hard questions. That said, I now want them to just get on with completing the deal and getting the show on the road. Btw, I preemptively sent Trellis screenshots to support my holding, but since they are anonymous and I am using an anonymous email, I doubt they actually mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Looks like Manyana's knights with shining drill bits are headed the wrong direction :-/

Jones, of course I am making assumptions. As Neils Bohr once said, "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future". The question is whether the assumptions are reasonable. I've set mine out -- if you want to be an argumentative git and pretend I trotted them out as facts, be my guest. I have you on ignore anyway. Feel free to do your own sums, and not just gripe after having them spoonfed to you. If you want a starting point, I used the 377 bcf mid-case estimate of recoverable gas in the TE-5 horst from the preliminary certification carried out by RPS and RNS'd on 20-Dec-2017.

As to how I am reading your inane posts, I log on every now and again especially around 7am RNS time, and treat myself to the unfiltered mess of this bb. It always tickles me how outraged people get that I read their posts when I said I wouldn't. The glorious truth is that it's up to me, not you. Fear not, though. It's most definitely a temporary concession.

Jones, you are thinking of SOU as an exploration company. I'm making no such assumptions. If SOU were to retain the 23.3% it would have the corresponding share of an estimated 60 Mmcf/day from the existing discovery without a single further exploration drill. Half of that production is guaranteed at $8 per mcf. The certified recoverable volumes indicate sustained production for 17 years, though it is in the nature of such reserves to grow over time. Completely ignoring reserve growth, SOU would have over $600m coming to it over the production lifetime, assuming an averaged $7 / mcf. Applying a dividend discount mechanism of 5% gives a share value of $0.26. SOU would also not have spent any money on exploration so would likely have several cent per share of money from the initial transaction after costs and debt. On this basis, a share value of perhaps GBP 25p would be a reasonable estimate based on not a scintilla of extra drilling, successful or otherwise. And if you actually hung onto the shares the lifetime dividend would be 65c / 50p or so. People need to get it through their heads that SOU has got an extremely valuable resource and will soon have a route to getting it out of the ground.

If we retain the lower amount and go drilling again, of course the scenario changes. But it seems likely that they would go for lower risk drills in the horst area, perhaps also in Sidi, perhaps with a partner. Of course nothing is confirmed or signed off. If you want a risk free investment you can probably still find a bank paying 0.1%.

Just thinking out loud some more, if we retained the 23% you could conceive of a GBP 2.5p annual dividend (approx. $33m worth of gas). Whether you take the S&P 500 average P/E of 15 or the O&G industry average of 25, that implies a not-too-shoddy SP upward of 30p. Selling the extra 9% gives maybe a 1.5p dividend and an SP of 20p. We would need to be finding several hundred bcf more from exploration to match the value of the first option. The potential upside is, of course, higher ... but so is the risk, and the experience of TE-8 to TE-10 doesn't inspire confidence. Investors must make their own decisions, but I fancy this deal could provide an exit opportunity for those who want it within a couple of years.

SO, I get the same numbers ... https://i.imgur.com/2dwScxX.png

Also agree with partridge about the rough gas value. So by my reckoning, that pesky 9% loses us about $130m worth of gas over ten years. But we get a lot more cash up front -- $118.8m vs. $54.3m before costs and debt. That drills a few more wells, including Sidi. I'm not qualified to guess which is better, but in fact neither seems a total disaster.