Member Info for ps200306

It seems that handing 2.5% of the company to the new CEO has boosted the share price by 50%. No pressure, Mr. Linn.

Of course Jez is entitled to his views as an ex-shareholder. Just as I'm entitled to ignore his treatise on orthopaedic mattresses and the rest of the endless stream of spam with which he plagues this bb, at the rate of 10 to 30 posts per day. Those with nothing better to do are welcome to entertain him.

Jez, are you angling for Best Troll in the Oscars or something? You really take the biscuit. Even with most of this morning's posts disappeared, and even though those I have filtered (who are numerous) only feature in my Inbox as a single "Blah" per comment, you are still a pestilent plague on my comment list. Congratulations -- I am making a special mod to my bb scraping utility to make you a special case that doesn't even feature as a "Blah". You're right -- the place won't be the same without you ... thank heaven.

The moderation policy on here seems to be to delete entire threads, not single posts. I reported one particularly obnoxious post this morning and the whole thread seems to be gone. Sorry 'bout that.

Question for anyone knowledgeable: the GSA covers sale of gas at the tie-in point with the Maghreb pipeline. Presume that means there are transit costs to be deducted for the 120km of pipeline from Tendrara. I presume also that Sound will own some of the pipeline as part of the carry they get from the current deal. But they will have to pay something for transit as they don't own it all. Anyone know how much gas transit costs are likely to be on a short pipeline like this? Is it negligible compared to the gas value?

"many (most?) people who post on here have absolutely no interest in the company.
they are generally (in no order)
1: looking for external validation for selling at a loss (they need sp to drop)
2: looking to trade (they want sp to drop)
3: pathalogical nutters who blame sou for their financial situation and not their own greed, and can't let go
4: out and out trolls thyat enjoy the attention they get here"

Works for me: 1) filter, 2) filter, 3) filter, 4) filter.

Let's not forget these options are worth zilch unless the price goes up. I'd prefer to have seen a condition that they can only be exercised if the share price exceeds some threshold, as was the case for TO'R's options. But I won't gripe. Do the job well and nobody will complain. If Barryroe gets developed and PVR retains even a small percentage of its interest the share price will go up by many multiples. If it doesn't, it's curtains. Giving away 2.5% to incentivise the management is small beans.

pbody, the original estimate was 350 boe recoverable. That was 310 bbl + 200 bcf of gas. Then there was an analysis of the lower strata which estimated the total could be up to 1.6 billion bbl in place.

We're in violent agreement.

"So APEC were never more than a conduit between Providence and the Chinese (whoever they were)"

But we already knew that, right back at the beginning. Nevertheless, PVR's agreement was with APEC, nobody else.

_Somebody's_ excited about this turkey. Up 22% in London and 32% on EuroNext. If it keeps going like this I could break even any year now.

glaw, I have been averaging down for over five years. Apart from some spare change, my last serious purchase of PVR was April 2018 when they allegedly planning to be drilling Barryroe in the second half of that year. I have not, and will not, put another cent into this clusterfark of a company. When you've averaged down by over 80% and you are STILL down 80%, you know someone's taking the mick.

Manyana, for someone who keeps an eagle eye on the news you do talk such carp. Providence's funding agreement was with APEC, nobody else. The bombshell RNS of June 5th (among others) states that Providence's "costs are to be financed by APEC pursuant to a non-recourse loan facility", and that "it was agreed that APEC would proceed to make an advance under the Loan of an initial US$ 9 million". The delay was blamed on "a change in the composition of APEC's funding mechanism" -- that does NOT mean somebody else is liable for paying the money.

As for the documentation about the equity -- nothing moves quickly at DCCAE so I would not be reading anything into the status there. The idea that APEC is still in the picture is laughable. As are your musings about TO'R's departure:

"So why did he just walk away on 6th December? Why is he at least not working out his notice period? There can be only the following reasons. Either he has been caught doing something illegal or he has got a better offer or there is a solution to Providences issues with Barryroe. And subject to the contract he is owed nearly €1m which the company is not, I believe in a position to pay him..."

It seems pretty obvious to me that the RNS about him leaving "amicably" is BS. The main shareholders were probably looking for his head on a plate. I would think the string of RNSs extending APEC's payment deadline were also accompanied by desperate phonecalls to the investors assuring them that PVR had no reason to be concerned about the eventual arrival of the funds. The whole thing was a clusterfark of epic proportions. My guess is TO'R was allowed to slink away with a bit of smooth talking about "amicability" in return for agreeing to dissolve his contract and relinquish any hold over PVR for payment.

The new CEO's task will be to find someone reliable with deep pockets willing to fund Barryroe in return for a much lousier deal than APEC offered. I would not be surprised (or, indeed, upset) to see PVR give away 90% of its interest in Barryroe IF it can raise any interest at all in the project.

Oh yeah, and Linn's face is slightly less punchable than TO'R's permatanned fizzog.

O'Reilly told us back in August/September he would "consider his position" if the APEC money didn't materialise. Why would he say that unless he perhaps already under pressure from the major shareholders. Bit unrealistic to think that a new CEO would magically have connections to new funding for Barryroe. Hopefully Linn's one and only focus is expending shoe leather looking for a replacement deal. I still reckon the chances are pretty low. Ireland has lost its lustre as an attractive E&P opportunity. And that's assuming Linn hasn't just been floated in by his former mates to run down the company and extract the last of the cash in salary.

"You are thinking Ireland with retirement age 67. Since Providence is a UK company he will actually retire sometime in 2024 at age 66 "

Providence is registered in Dublin Ireland with headquarters in Ireland (source: their website). Alan Linn lives in Ireland (source: the RNS).

If the deal gets done I don't particularly care what happens to the share price. A 1.5p dividend for the next decade and a bit will see me break even. That turns into a healthy profit if SOU retain the extra 9% . And if not they get well over $100m in cash to go drilling with. It's a moot point though, because only crazy people think the share price is going to stay at 2p if they're paying a 100% annual dividend.

Just looking at that extra 9% again. Giving it away loses SOU $15.6m/yr in gas sales. In return they get $41.6m in cash, and -- if it works the way I think it should -- a refund of around $25m for our lower share of infrastructure costs. So, a little over 4 years worth of the lost gas sales. Looked at that way it's unpleasant but not horrible. The real downside is in the lost potential of future finds.

Based on: 0.3 bcm/yr (equal to 29 MMcf/day) being worth $84m/yr.
If we extrapolate to the rest of the gas being worth the same (unlikely, I know), then 60 MMcf/day is worth $174m/yr.
Assume Sound's share is 23.3%, a GBP/dollar rate of 1.3, and the post-placement shares in issue of 1,156,037,264.

The annual value to SOU is 2.69p per share. At 14.3% this falls to 1.65p per share.
Add 10% if the flow rate is 66 MMcf/day instead of 60.
Subtract overheads, running costs, and any further drilling costs.

Obviously further drilling has significant potential upside if they play it safe and sensible. Forget about 31 Tcf, another 0.3 Tcf recoverable would do nicely for starters, thank you very much.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lJVi3DRGYI