Member Info for ps200306

There's nothing wrong with banding together to ask a few questions. The obvious one is why we should incur dilution over and above what is necessary to get us to first gas. Since that seems to be covered by selling half our interest, why would we sell another 40% of what's left after the purchaser gets a chance to poke around the assets? If the answer is that the purchaser won't buy in otherwise, the next question is why this sh|tty deal is the best the management could do.

Without the further dilution I reckon the deal gets us between 20p and 40p (best case) returned over 15 years. Far from ideal but better than a total loss. Worst case with further dilution is about 12p per share, pretty derisory.

Providence may be able to pass the hat around to raise a few million but it hasn't a snowball's chance in hell of raising the sort of funds needed to bring Barryroe to production. For that it needs a partner with deep pockets.

koozer and bongabob join the trash heap.

"ignores": [ "bongabob,chipandputt,chrisma,crudehope,Gaspunter,GekkoJr,JezTheFez,Jobbinscl,Jones1980,koozer,mahatmajacket,Mickeytentoes,",
"n4aPound,Petroleonline,Pontcanna,redmouse2812,seaton7392,Shaungreen47,simonthezealot,Sounder,",
"Tradesmakes,wh0sthedaddy,Yorkshireman"
],

Can't agree about no news being good news. Sure, another deal will take months ... if one ever materialises. There isn't the slightest hint that's likely the case.

I say thank you to Youtube + Adblocker. Long may it continue to work. I have to say I'm more an instrumental music fan myself. One of the greatest pieces ever written, performed -- as it should be -- by a graduate of the Russian school:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22m4mJ758Ts

And a beautiful, disturbingly evocative piece by one of the most ahead-of-his-time composers ever:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGPRk1-L5yc

Pretty good, I'll grant you.

On a related note, I'd like to say it's not over for Providence until the fat lady sings. Unfortunately it's showing every sign of croaking it.

Manyana you total peasant!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1C8NFDdFYg

Squawker my a$$.

pbody we have ice ages on 100ky timescales. We can't really wave away the next hundred years of warming by saying "thing always change". Anyway, I'm a technology optimist. We'll sort it out. Given enough cheap energy we can extract atmospheric CO2 much faster than trees.

Agree about the share. It is bordering on criminal that we haven't had a peep from management in the six weeks since the final deadline expired. TO'R has drawn 50k of salary in those 6 weeks. A hint of a plan doesn't sound like too much to ask.

That's why the most important factor for now is reducing the carbon intensity of GDP growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwwpNM1utnA

The proportionality refers to the fact that the purchase price is very roughly 50% in cash and 50% in carries for SOU's share of the infrastructure development cost. There is no carry on exploration mentioned. If the purchaser takes the extra 9%, half of it will be in cash and half in carries, just like the other 23%. The price will be proportionally exactly the same for both purchases. No advantage to SOU. Everything at the whim of the purchaser.

ericnat, I don't see how diluting us further supports an overspend. I think it's simpler and more sinister than that. The purchaser gets to do further appraisal for a year. If they like what they see they take an extra 9% at a knockdown price.

LG, that is simply wrong. Population growth could BECOME a factor in the climate crisis, but to claim it is the number one factor NOW is simply ignoring the facts. The biggest CO2 emitters are China and the USA, with India a distant third. Between them they account for 52% of global emissions. Chinese fertility is WAY below replacement level and has been for 30 years. The US is considerably below, and bolstered only by immigration. India is at replacement level and on a reducing trajectory.

After these come the other industrial powers and oil producers -- Russia, Japan, Germany, Korea, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia -- accounting for 19% of emissions between them. The rest of the world is only 30%, and the entire continent of Africa is a comparatively minute 3%.

In summary, the biggest emitters occupy that position not because of population growth but because of affluence and profligacy, while the fastest growing populations contribute next to nothing to emissions.

Riddlers, unfortunately the RNS *does* say exactly that. The 9% will be "on the same proportional financial consideration" as the "proposed transaction", i.e. the first 23%. This is entirely in the purchaser's favour and puts SOU over a barrel. Within the first year the purchaser will have done additional appraisals on the horst and gets to decide if it is in their interest to purchase the extra chunk at the same price. SOU just has to take it lying down.

The way I am evaluating our prospects is based on the value of the gas that has or will be found. Forget about the purchase price from the mystery purchaser -- that will all be eaten up by existing commitments (debt and golden handshakes), keeping the lights on, and paying a modest share of exploration. At 23% interest, Tendrara will be worth US 20 c per share. With a very optimistic doubling of the gas find, that's 40 c per share. If we lose that extra 9% (which seems most likely) it goes down to 12 c and 24 c per share. That makes it possibly no more than a two-bagger from the current share price, which is a great disappointment but considerably better than zero. Sidi remains the wild card, but I wouldn't be pinning too many hopes on it.

P.S. I just unfiltered trellis who seems to have had a change of heart. To the rest of the spammers and vitriolic posters, shame on you for p*$$ing all over this board while our investments went to pot.

Sensible post Tableleg. I do rather hope some of the more shrill commenters will calm themselves down. Personally I am down nearly 600k on this turkey. I'm sure there are some worse off, but not many I'll bet. Nevertheless, I am interested in what can be recovered, not in shouting and bawling about being robbed. I wasn't. Like everyone else I knew the COS on the recent drills, and that it was "high risk, high reward". In retrospect it was too high risk for a company in our cash position. Now someone else who can raise cash will gain most of the benefits. That is the nature of the beast. For SOU shareholders there is still a chance to recover something rather than nothing. Sane heads must prevail in order to maximise that. No amount of wailing will improve it.

Ditto, JODO. I also wonder whether such innumerate people should be dabbling in share investing. (Though I'm pretty good at the ole' sums and still got sucked in by the train crash called Providence). Anyhoo, before we start blaming Africa and India for man-made global warming, let's just appreciate that the USA produces more CO2 than that continent and sub-continent combined. Nearly twice as much in fact, even though it has less than one seventh of their population.

The entire continent of Africa produces less than one fifth of the CO2 of the USA. So how is their birth rate killing the planet? I note that India's population growth rate has halved in the last forty years, at the same time that their average life expectancy has gone up twenty years. It is a broadly similar story in many African countries though population is taking longer to stabilise in some regions, mostly the poorer ones. The irony is that as countries become more affluent and consume *more* energy, the population tends to plateau. And that is my main gripe with the leftie environmentalists. We need an affluent world capable of dealing with any crises we encounter. The so-called climate crisis will be dealt with in plenty of time with the advent of nuclear fusion, the Allam cycle, and other technologies we haven't dreamed of yet.

Given where we are, this deal could seem almost palatable ... except for that option on the extra 9% of SOU's holding. Looking at Exploration's numbers in his posts of 16.11 et seq., the value of the gas in the existing find is about US 20c per to SOU when they own 23%. With the possibility of doubling that amount through exploration we are looking at 40c per share, which would go a long way toward making a lot of PIs whole, or at least easing the pain. (For me it *might* just reduce the losses to under 6 figures). But the option on the 9% would reduce SOU's remaining holding by 40%, or 16c per share, for which they would only receive circa 4c. That is a considerable kick in the crotch.

Well, have been truly suckered by this one. There's no lipstick that can be put on this pig of a deal. Down well over half a million quid personally, helluva dent in the pension pot. On the upside, I can stop visiting this board for the next year or so. Shares in the bottom drawer, have mentally written them off. My guess is SOU will just fade away, frittering its remaining cash. Even if/when we get to production with our measly 14% it'll be worth about a penny per year per share. There's a glimmer of hope that something might be done with Sidi, but even the mention of SOU and "glimmer of hope" in the same sentence is like a bad joke at this stage. The inscription over the gate of hell in Dante's Inferno would be more apt. Best of luck everyone who is still hanging on. See you in 2021.

USD 112m, of which half goes to our share of development. Of the remainder, there are transaction costs to pay, debts to pay, wages to pay. I'd say we'd be lucky if there was GBP 10m left in the kitty in addition to running costs for next year. Maybe a few mil more when our extra 9% gets bought. Even when we get to gas production our 14.3% interest can hardly be worth more than about 1p per share per year. So, $10m to drill a well, perhaps in Sidi to keep the license alive and so as not to be paying for somebody else's upside in Tendrara. It's rather bleak looking.

By the time we pay transaction costs and the current debt I don't think this deal leaves much, if any, money for new drilling without a further raise.

Just about as bad as could be imagined. Not very surprised though. Those who thought "all shareholders would be protected" were delusional. Basically the shares are now worthless, but can be stuck in the bottom drawer and checked in a few years time just in case they have recovered a pittance.