Member Info for ps200306

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Celtic Voyager appears to have got the survey under way already. Or, at least, they are traipsing back and forth across the survey area. It's almost as if they were doing boring old sonar, instead of deploying the top secret Billion Barrel Bonanza Buster™ machine. LOL.

Manyana: "Explanation please as I want to "learn" from the "master"."

Also Manyana: "... you go to the "trouble" of writing about 400 words. "

Another failure of the logic module there, Manyana. You wanna learn or not? Or were you just asking out of petulance?

And just to remind you again: even if they were shooting seismic (which they're not), and if seismic could detect oil (which it can't), you STILL can't survey a 660 square kilometre area by traversing nine square kilometres of it. You must think this oil deposit is all stashed in a particular spot, like some leprechaun's crock o' gold. Maybe that's why they went out in such crappy weather ... hoping to spot a rainbow. LOL ;-)

Quit being an annoying prat, Manyana. I never claimed to be an expert, quite the opposite. However, I can Google as well as you can, and that equipment is a combination of sonar, underwater positioning, imaging, and water measurement ... exactly as I said.

Manyana: "The survey is basically to satisfy EU directives so Providence do not end up with another judicial review as in a previous occasion..."

The last judicial review was about the granting of the previous site survey. Are you saying they're doing a survey to avoid a judicial review on the granting of a survey?

Manyana: "... but that does not mean they cannot perform other functions if they so wish."

Uh, yes. That's exactly what it means. Clearly you haven't read the Appropriate Assessment Screening that Providence were required to submit with the survey application. It lists every one of the pieces of equipment to be used, as well as the precise noise levels of each item. They're not allowed scare the dolphins, you know. Underwater seismic produces noise levels more than a thousand times louder than the sonar equipment.

Manyana: "So you think all the other features of the survey boat will be switched off just to satisfy DCCAE and Eamon Ryan."

a) you didn't list any features that could detect that billion barrels of oil you were banging on about,
b) no such feature exists on ANY boat on the planet, let alone the Celtic Voyager; you've been watching too much Star Trek
c) underwater seismic is not something you can just turn on with the flick of a switch, you have to tow a big array of hydrophones.

Manyana: "Explanation please as I want to "learn" from the "master"."

Once again, I am not an expert. Though perhaps I am in comparison to you, since I at least know that there is no technology in existence that can detect "a billion barrels of oil" from above ground. More than happy to explain to you how those estimates are arrived at, in layman's terms. Just ask nicely. You're welcome.

Survey boat has arrived on site.

What I mean is that they would want to give it to someone who can develop it quicker than SOU seem to be doing. Couple of oddities in that most recent interview -- previously Graham claimed that the tax issue was not holding up Tendara development, now he says it *is*. And he also sounded a bit petulant, suggesting that they might drag their heels on any development beyond their commitments. Could imagine the Moroccan gov getting a bit impatient. However, I'm purely speculating.

Great ... blustery force 6 winds at present, and near gale force Monday night through Tuesday, 15-20ft waves.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ten-sailors-have-lucky-escape-after-yacht-blown-onto-rocks-40980144.html

Celtic Voyager is on the move. 40 km north of the survey site right now.

So, big dilution coming?

The price of Tendrara gas will be based on the market price, if I recall correctly. There's some complicated calculation, and it may be capped within certain ranges, so I can't say this with confidence ... but I'm not sure there's a saving compared to the international market. That said, the Algerians seem to be switching off the supply, and imported LNG would certainly cost more, so I agree the government would see merit in securing the supply. Not to the extent of funding it though, I'm pretty sure. They could conceivably throw some weight behind securing a loan. Alternatively, they could just sit out the lease period and take it back for themselves. In fact, without being too conspiratorial, I harbour a slight suspicion that the whole tax demand thing is backed by someone in government trying to make life difficult for SOU.

"if the gas is there to sipoly ONEE, the government will step in in a way or another."

That is an extraordinary piece of logic. Governments grant hydrocarbon leases and concessions so that SOMEONE ELSE will take the risk. In return for taking the risk, the lessee gets a big slice of the pie. No government says "here, have a lease AND let me pay for the development AND then let me then buy the resources back off you". The government will step in alright -- to take the concession back if SOU can't develop it.

Manyana: "Is it just a colletion of pretty colours or do the colours represent something."

The colours represent depths. Of what, isn't clear. Providence have a whole bunch of 2D and 3D seismic products and gravity gradiometry. If I was to hazard a guess, that one is the BCU (the Base Cretaceous Unconformity), but what do I know? I am not a geologist (just a well read layperson).

Manyana: "I am sure it not a picture of the sediment on the floor of Barryroe."

Yeah, why would it be? The site surveys have nothing to do with that map (apart from their locations happen to be marked on it). They are seabed surveys to make sure nobody is planning to plant their Christmas Tree on a boulder. Ponder this in your tiny mind -- that map on slide ten covers an area of over 1200 square kilometres. The site surveys are designed to be exactly 3 kilometres on a side. Are you suggesting they shot 1200 sq. km. of seismic from three postage-stamp-sized surveys, one of which HASN'T EVEN BEEN DONE YET, and NONE of which involved any seismic? I know you're a computer guy, but you need to check the ole' logic module.

Manyana: "And, why did Providence say they "bought" seismic information..."

Because they did. How else would they get it? That bulge in TO'R's pocket was his oversized paycheck, not a hi-tech survey ship.

Manyana: "... and why did they pick "K" as a position when they already had two sites at "A" and "B"."

Good god man. Surely it's obvious even to a non-specialist that nobody knows what is down there until they actually do a successful drill? Until then, they have to apply their expertise based on the seismic and exploration drill results, and make their best guess about the most prospective appraisal drills. The K site has two advantages that I know of (and remember, I said I'm not a geologist) -- it's in the side wall of a hanging valley and therefore part of the structural closure they have mapped, and it also has the opportunity to test a deeper Jurassic target as well as the Wealden (Lower Cretaceous). You may remember the APEC era plan was to drill a well on the K site with a side track to the Jurassic.

Manyana: "Thick as you are, you have not answered any of these points even though they are self explanatory. And, friend, as for "teaching" me, I suggest you teach your grandmother to suck eggs."

LOL. Fascinated to hear YOUR explanation of these "self-explanatory" points. You still claiming that a sonar survey can find a billion barrels of oil? ;-)

"Does anyone know where the £250 million is coming from?"

No, and that includes Graham. I believe £250m is slightly pessimistic. First off, it's dollars not pounds. Graham said it was the amount that SOU would invest in the project, which doesn't imply that it's all needed up front, e.g. several wells aren't needed right at the start. Also, ONHYM have to contribute 25% of costs which it's not clear if Graham is including.

Graham is a bit shy about giving a true estimate but one can be gleaned from the first SP Angel valuation which showed a debt figure associated with Phase 2. Unfortunately the debt figure disappeared from subsequent valuations, but going from memory it was $180m for Phase 2. There is more in the latest valuation from August (which seems to have strangely gone untrumpeted, maybe because the target price actually went *down* for some reason, to 8.2p).

The latest valuation doesn't show debt, but it does show CAPEX. It's a bit hard to decipher, though, because they have inexplicably used the same graph colour for Phase 2 expenditure and subsequent exploration. If we assume that Phase 1 and G&A are covered by the Afriquia Gaz loan, then the Phase 2 expenditure in FY22-23 is 48.4 + 157.9 = $206m. There's another 61m in FY24 but -- taking the most optimistic view -- it could be either exploration or it could be Phase 2 wells that aren't needed before pipeline gas starts flowing.

I would say that the timeline looks crazily optimistic with Phase 2 construction starting in H2 2022. For example, we've had hints that flow rates from Phase 1 would be needed to make the case for Phase 2 funding. Also, the ONEE GSA will be needed, and we know how long that fiasco has been dragging on.

But regardless of all that, look at the Afriquia Gas deal which will have been nearly two years from inception to conclusion and it's for one tenth the eye-watering amount needed for Phase 2. Graham has been pretty tight-lipped about where the Phase 2 money might come from, but it's pretty clear they are not even on the starting blocks in terms of looking for it. It's going to be a very long haul.

Safely tucked away in Cork Harbour now. It's about four hours sail to the survey site tomorrow. I see there's quite a flotilla just five kilometres west of the site working on the Kinsale decomissioning -- five ships, two tugs and the Stena Spey semi-submersible.

Manyana, I've just educated you about what the seabed survey entails. That's not nothing.

As for your slide 10, I've no idea what you're asking. Feel free to elaborate.

swizz: "ps, the survey is a key element of the licensing agreement and lease undertaking, so I would suggest it means a lot more to the drilling and development plans than your suggested “diddly squat” "

Yes, of course it is an important part of the *permitting* process. However, what I meant is that it has no bearing on whether PVR manage to raise the finance for a drill, which is the number one obstacle right now. The survey is completely immaterial to that.

Manyana: "Perhaps they have "unofficially" surveyed "K" which they could have done unofficially when they did "B" because seismic is now far more advanced ... So now are they just going to officially approve "K" with information they already know? ... And, I presume, the results of the survey will form part of the Financial Review as I am sure whatever they find in "K" will be reviewed by Schlumberger who are, after all, the specialists in seismic analysis ... An interesting point, if "K" indicated there was say 1billion barrels of oil down there would anybody dare prevent the development? ... Part of the survey included the statement they were going to do a "Shallow Geophysical Survey" ... That sounds like sub-surface analysis to me."

Manyana, you have completely the wrong end of the stick here. They survey is a side-scan sonar, magnetometer and photographic survey. There is no seismic involved. Side-scan sonar, depending on frequency and seabed composition can penetrate as little as one metre and up to a couple of tens of metres. That's why it's called a *shallow* geophysical survey. The basal Wealdon is more than two kilometres down and the Jurassic further still. The survey is for assessing the state of the seabed for drilling. It has literally nothing to do with any further discovery of oil, let alone being able to indicate if there's a billion barrels of oil. That can only be done by extensive appraisal drilling.

And no, they didn't sneakily survey "K" while doing "A" and "B" because a) they weren't out there long enough, b) they couldn't afford it, c) the idea that the operator would agree to tow 300 metres of cables and expensive equipment in an unannounced location without required legal notices and risk never being allowed to operate in Irish waters again is fantastical.

The Algerian geology is prone to the same permeability problems too. In retrospect SOU's "high risk, high reward" strategy was an insane gamble that would leave them over a barrel if it didn't come off. It's going to take quite a while to "build back better".

n.a., a million is a brave purchase. What's your plan? Would you agree that PVR is a binary bet -- if they don't find funding for Barryroe they are cattle trucked. Even if they do they could be stymied by politics (even granting that the law is on their side).

Why "silly silly people"? We knew the survey was happening. It means diddly squat for whether Barryroe's gonna get drilled.

At least it looks like the survey is on schedule, CV arriving in Cork 9pm tomorrow to begin on 23rd. If all goes to plan they'll be finished the day before the start of COP26. Pity we couldn't do a sneaky drill while Ryan's on holidays in Scotland.