Member Info for ps200306

goza, no crystal ball here -- I wouldn't pretend to hazard a guess about the tax bill. On the other issues there shouldn't be long to wait. December 17th for Phase 1 news, and it seems the only outstanding material issue is the AG loan note. It would be a fiasco if that fell through after everything else has come together but we will know by end of next week.

I was pretty amazed that Graham seems to have commited to finding Phase 2 financing within 90 days, i.e. by end of Feb, but I presume he wouldn't have done so if there were not serious talks afoot. So, unless he's completely lost the plot, that must be treated with cautious optimism also. I do expect that Phase 2 will come with lots of strings attached, possibly in the form of giving away a sizeable equity stake. So even if it's good news it remains to be seen how much value there is for shareholders.

Sidi, I have no idea. Likewise with the Anoual drill commitment. Perhaps a Phase 2 farminee will also fund that.

Just some lunatics seeing the cheap price and flogging a dead horse -- I was one of them.

How would a buyout be good for shareholders? SOU would likely get a discounted value for the Tendrara asset and nothing at all for exploration potential. Having come this far on the production route I'd imagine the board and major shareholders want to see it through.

The only gas producer in Ireland is the operator of the Corrib field. In 2014 Ireland imported 96% of its gas from Scotland via Moffat. With Kinsale gone and Corrib dwindling we'll be back in the same boat in another few years, possibly by 2025. Ireland has no gas storage facility. With the closure of the North Sea Rough facility, the UK has no long term storage either, and short term storage is less than 6% of annual demand.

The UK now produces less than half its gas domestically, with a further 20% from LNG imports and the rest as pipeline imports. It pays spot price for LNG because it doesn't have firm delivery contracts and is generally considered a destination of last resort for LNG cargoes.

In other words, Ireland will soon be entirely reliant on its next door neighbour who is on a similarly sticky wicket. You might say we are playing with lack of fire.

6% rise for SOU so far this morning is not bad against a backdrop of a couple of bad days for markets in general, and volumes are impressive. This news has been signposted for several years, but fair play to Graham for bringing it to this stage. Hopefully not a fig leaf for not having any news on Phase 1 -- SOU is still dependent on that AG loan to keep things moving forward.

Also, the 90 day timeline is tight given that it requires funding in place to finalise it. Let's hope it means Graham has an ace up his sleeve and that he is choreographing the GSA and funding discussions in parallel. The only clue is the reference to "vendor financing, equity participation and alternate lending solutions". Is someone going to take a big chunk of SOU in return for funding?

Cautiously positive. If this goes right, SOU could be on the road to value sooner than might have been expected.

Ryan, at his party's convention: "For this new green economy is the one that is emerging across the world. It is an inevitable transition because under business as usual, the world will simply burn ..."

Ryan trying to out-catastrophise Extinction Rebellion? He's transitioning alright ... from fringe environmental eccentric to power-crazed eco-loon.

Nobody's trying to be witty. I'm defending myself from deliberate lies constantly spewed by that idiot ramper. However, I know he's not going to stop so I am leaving him to it.

STD213, it's your own credibility that should be important to you. I've been calling you out for your barefaced lies since the very first time you accused me of predicting that company was going under, and continually since. You've never once managed to reference a post where I actually said that nor will you ever. Anyway, no matter, I will leave you to your delusions and "alternative facts".

STD123: "lie all your want but you told us that Sound were finished and sold up the majority of shareholding as a result"

That's a barefaced lie as anyone can ascertain for themselves. It doesn't get any truer with constant repetition. The only thing I predicted was that SOU's share price was not recovering in a timeframe suitable *FOR ME*. That's no longer a prediction, it's a fact: more than eight months later the share price is less than the day I sold. Anyway, I'm recalling my previous pledge not to continue this pointless online spat with somebody who has proved themselves to be a serial liar and as dumb as a box of rocks to boot. So have a nice day.

STD123: "PS there were some valuations by brokers at the time who were predicting 9p so not that far out compared to them."

Care to provide an actual reference to one? Either you are talking about ancient valuations that bear no connection to SOU's current situation, or you are talking about the current SP Angel valuation for Phase 2. In the latter case, you would have to have assumed that SOU would close Phase 1 *and* Phase 2 contracts *and* get them both BUILT between April and June of this year. Either way you are delusional.

STD123: "It's a bit rich to heap criticism on a prediction of a share price when you were predicting the company would not exist at all. Any prediction has to be more realistic than that."

Ahh, I was wondering when you'd trot out that bald-faced lie again. No, as I constantly have to repeat to you (because you are as dumb as a plank) I have NEVER predicted that SOU would not exist. To do that I would have to know a whole bunch of things that are either unknowable or are not in the public domain. Or I would have to have a time machine. You're the one making wild predictions on the basis of zero evidence. I just go by what I read, which you could do too if you didn't have that weird pathological phobia about looking at the available material.

You also maintained vociferously that the share price would be 4-6p by June. And castigated others for "selling out too soon" when, in fact, the share price is lower now than it was in March. Not a great track record on the ole' prediction front. You should read the valuation from the people that SOU have actually paid for making predictions.

¯\_(?)_/¯

Today's Biz Post reports on the Green Gestapo's latest moves -- to force every company with more than fifty employees to report their annual carbon emissions, to make climate change a compulsory subject in second level education, to ban gas boilers in new homes from 2023, and to ban them in existing homes carrying out substantial renovations.

STD123: "I never said which year and less of the name calling thank you."

That's right, you never mentioned a year. You said 4-6p within three months last April. That leaves no room for doubt as to which year. Mendacious as well as a plonker.

"... the doomsayers predicting that Sound would cease to exist."

Presumably a reference to me even though I specifically distanced myself from any such prediction and still do. You seem to have a hard time grasping that SOU as it stands is worth LESS THAN ZERO. When Phase 1 is delivered it will claw its way back to ZERO value. Phase 1 will provide no money to return to shareholders, no money to build a pipeline, and no money for anything other than debt repayment for the next ten years. It will do no more than keep the wolf from the door. Again, read my lips: it is worth ZERO. This is known from information in the public domain, should you ever choose to read it.

Phase 2 is worth very considerably more but since, as mentioned, the money won't be coming from Phase 1 revenue it will have to be raised elsewhere. That's a mountain for Graham to climb. He may do it, he may not. He may have to give a lot of value away to achieve it. Nobody knows, as there has been no disclosure of any negotiation details, leading me to suspect that there aren't any as yet. The only thing we know for sure is that your hero is a year behind on what was supposed to be a six-month project to close Phase 1 (as you will know since you bought in on that occasion at three times the current share price). So it is reasonable to assume Phase 2 financing will be a long hard slog.

STD123: "even the most critical of doomsayers are now hedging their bets as the realisation that Graham is making a difference now sinks in."

... says the plonker who confidently predicted 6p by June.

ItalFluids will be first in the queue for a payment of $5m, due soon after completion. There goes your six month buffer.

It's also worth pointing out that €125 billion would also pay for a large fleet of nukes, even of the current expensive variety. You would get enough Westinghouse AP1000's to quadruple Ireland's current electricity capacity, with a reliable 90% capacity factor and an operating life of sixty years. You would have solid baseload power that would easily cover the requirements of EVs, decarbonised space heating and industrial needs. A few years from now you'll be able to do it with Gen IV modular reactors that are low maintenance, walkaway safe, and in smaller capacities that would facilitate a decentralised grid. Never gonna happen, of course because the Greenies are going to spend all that money by 2030 on a plan that can't work, will achieve little or no emissions savings and -- if this lunacy is still around by 2030 -- will see us staring into an abyss of even more expensive 2050 targets.

Sentiment is fleeting. True value depends on a well signposted series of milestones that we are still waiting for. Phase 1 contracts -- originally planned for 31-Dec-2020 -- are just the first of several. Time is not on our side: the chances of LNG revenue in time to start bond amortisation in December 2023 are diminishing, not to mention that the Afriquia Gaz loan is needed for more immediate G&A and bond commitments.

I hate to say it, but when has SOU *ever* squeezed something in just before a looming deadline? Don't think I can remember a single occasion. The closer we get, the less likely that anything is forthcoming.

The mind boggles at the stupidity of our climate action plan. We are going to spend €125 billion ($140 bn) between now and 2030 to save less than 0.1% of global emissions. That's 30 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Right now, the same amount of money would pay for ten years of direct air carbon capture of the same annual amount.

DAC costs are projected to fall by a factor of five to ten in the coming years and decades. In that case our €125 billion could have paid for a HUNDRED YEARS of the same amount of carbon capture. In that time we'd have had to replace all our wind turbines four times. Mind you, I think the population who will be paying for this out of their pockets would baulk at the sight of giant glorified hair dryers sucking their wallets dry. But that's essentially what wind power is doing -- just with an added appearance of doing something useful.

In the future, nobody's going to thank tiny Ireland for sacrificing its economy on the altar of Green zealotry. What's more, as an early adopter it's doing it at the most expensive time possible, and more or less shoving CO2 down a hole only for it to resurface on the other side of the world in China. Maybe it'll all be better when we get the 2.4 GW of solar scheduled for 2030. 'Cos you know the way there's never a grey day up here at 53°N latitude, and I'm quite sure I didn't just look out the window at a deathly calm slate-coloured sky under a persistent Arctic high on a day that's as short as it is dull.