Member Info for prussell1963

Blimey, if there is belief that 1000p is achievable then I need to short my holding now and sell at least one of the kids to a passing circus. I believe that even with current price softening and sentiment to oil business, as soon as price drops drastically then top up buying may hold up the price as buyers see 1800/1750/1700 etc as the bottom. After buying in the early 2000p range I for one need to see return to 2250p plus, otherwise I will start looking which sibling I can do without!!

Shell continues to purchase significant numbers of its own shares listed on various stock exchanges. I was led to believe that by removing large volumes of shares from circulation, the remaining shares would leap in value based on the old supply and demand equation. Not in this case. Even with major buy backs the share price continues to fall/hover. If Shell weren't buying pack and hence propping up the market would the share price actually be below 1900p ?? How lucky for Shell they can buy back their shares at such low prices and hence lower cost, unless they are now able to purchase more with same allotted monies. Am I being a conspiracy theorist here?? Is it really the low w/sale gas price which is doing for Shell currently. More improtantly, is there value in a fossil fuel company, even one who is working hard to transform its product to more environmentally sustainable ones..

Also interesting to see that today £19M shares SOLD and only £7M BOUGHT , a near 3-1 ratio, so again people are voting by taking 410p and selling rather than awaiting any May dividend, even at 22p p/s...... what do they know??

Whilst I have no words of solid wisdom I am using my Persimmon experience as a spirit guide!! I purchased 12k shares at 2450p only to see them plummet to 1850p, to say squeaky bum time is an understatement, the wife claiming I had no idea what i was doing and should have given her the money to "invest" at (not in!!) Next / M&S etc. I held on and sold some at 2350p and used the cash to trade out some of the loss by buying other stocks, which was a reasonable at best success. Market returned and I sold the balance of holding at 2676p and lorded over the wife that of course i had read the market well, had banked 2 big divis and made money on the share price. Used the cash to pay off flights to Japan, Premium Economy no less!! I now see that 3 months later the share is circa 3280p and my "give up" is nearly £7k, we could have flown business class, well at least i could have!! My moral is too be boring and do as the experts advise, see the long term picture and dont panic on the downs, I have actually lost nothing on RDSB as i havent sold anything yet!! and my purchase price has been between 2000-2300p so I can wait a recovery, especially as i am too tight to consider a loss. Divi's give me some comfort, however I am not brave enough to top up, which is stupid as i have 70k sitting in a bank account paying less than 1%, just shows what a coward I am after licking my wounds this year on Aviva, RDSB, PSN and Mondi . Am seriously thinking of giving my cash to that nice Mr Smith over at Fundsmith a she has turned £35k into £73k in 3 years, and his Smithson fund has returned £13.8k against £10k investment in less than a year. Can anyone remind me why we do this independant share investing when Fundsmith has annualised 19% since it started in 2009. This would have been so much better if 2018 hadn't returned 3% as every other year was mid/late 20% return. What am I missing?? Is that writing really on the wall??

As per my previous posts on AV Dec/Jan, the share price will not deliver suitable gains, and by whichever performance measure you use, the returned performance has been worse than poor, even derisory. Originally I firecast that as soon as sp gets to 430-40p many will simply dump their holdings and cash in, as many "investors" will have taken advantage of the 350-400p range, and will take the 7% divi then sell at anything close to 420p, as you can see even i have downgraded my sell target. The days of this been a 500p share , even with huge cash in bank reserves etc are way off in the future. Once a share falls out of favour with the professionals then its recovery is a long, long road back and thats whats happening to AV. None of the major buyers fancy the stock even with 7% yield, that should tell us mortals something. What has always irked me is that the Board MUST know the feeling and sentiment of its share holders and the very negative postings on numerous sites etc but their response is nothing. Blimey, even Motley Fool has stopped tipping AV and its 7% yield, seems even they dont see any share price growth aongside divi anytime soon. I was all for giving Tulloch a fair crack at the CEO role, but i now see so much in the various chat rooms that AV should NOT have gone safe with a long time AV employee appointment who seemingly is preserving the status quo (to a degree) and should have gone with an outsider with imagination. I am begining to come round to this train of thought. Am afraid that nothing anyone can say on these posts will change my views as i have seen too many "jam tomorrow" posts and applauding of share price reduction so "topping up" can happen, but what point a top up if the sp never performance, perhaps these topper uppers are simply averaging down their purchase price from the heady days of 430-480p so their portfolio doesn't look so bad. Roll on 430p so I can sell and recover my £35k and put it on so many better options. Before i get quizzed on these better options, let me say that in under 3 years Terry Smith has turned my £35k into £73k and his Smithson fund has turned my £10k into £13.8k in less than 12 months, performance AV can only dream of, but never replicate. Tullock is the invisible man sailing a leaking ship and unless he has a plan to regain lots of peoples trust, be prepared to see AV languish long term, share price wise. Buyers will be those looking for a safe haven for retirement cash, happy to get 7% yield as it beats any bank offer and deemed less risky than some funds, but understanding that nil risk comes with poor share price growth. Not for me. If I dont go with that lovely Mr Smith, I would sell up and buy RDSB at 1950p and same divi yield, at least RDSB will recover from 1950p, AV will most likely languish most of 2020.

Again, as per my couple of recent posts, I agree with the sentiment expressed below, that as soon as some traction is made on share price, holders sell, despite the very decent dividend of circa 8%. I wonder if the Board at Aviva know the sentiment which hangs around their company shares like a bad smell, and if so does it concern them. I have long held the view that despite recent initiatives the share price cannot deliver any sustainable improvement, and as soon as it advances a few pennies, people dump it, or day traders have cottoned on to the ability to make money by buying selling as we all know the upper and lower ranges of Aviva. I hate my own negativity for a share in which I have £40k invested, but we all like to see that our investment was sound and delivering some return, even if to make us feel smart at this silly game of shares. Other companies who do not hold the cash reserves of Aviva have powered ahead, some even in the same sector, so Aviva's languishing status must cause concern to all. I haven't seen anything positive from the board to address or make any improvement..... again are they aware of the smell around their company is growing??. Perhaps they are happy at receiving their bonus shares at 350p (and below) knowing that its money in the bank at 400 - 415p [plus the divi they take on same.
I may as well sell my AV holding at 410p and pile into Shell B which is trading at a low 2160p, has more chance of recovering to 2300-2350p and will pay same dividend. Why I don't take my own advice is beyond me......... ??!!

I stumbled upon more rhetoric from supposedly enlightened scribes who list Aviva as a Value Trap stock rank style, explanation in part which can be read at the following link. In short, VT's are companies which seem to attract bargain hunters, and are generally, unloved, mis-understood or even broken companies or may be stricken stocks that may either never bounce back or make you bear too much opportunity cost to make it worth the wait. I do hope they have the ranking wrong on Aviva, my worry is that AV. in some ways are starting to fit the Value Trap profile in as much as they appeared to be unloved and do not seem able to bounce back from their ongoing malaise. I hope for good news end Q1, but the article does seem to maintain the institutions view that AV. remains unpopular and may be a classic "jam tomorrow" company. Unless good news and a positive position is made evident soon, i believe that AV. will remain in the "languishing" list longer than it deserves. What i do not understand is if the numbers are so good and divi's will be maintained at nearly 8%, why do the institutions, fund managers and the like NOT buy AV. If its as good as many claim on these posts the big boys would be in like a shot and fortunes would be so very different. Are we just kidding ourselves that something that walks like a duck and quacks like a duck is a swan??

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/value-traps-how-to-avoid-bargain-stocks-that-might-never-recover-110319/

With Shell buying back substantial number of shares this week as part of its buy back program, I am disappointed to see continual downturn in share price. The advice by all the sage's was that when a company buys back its own shares its a sign of confidence, and will reduce the number of shares in circulation which raises the value of the shares left in circulation. Nothing of the like has been evident. Therre was a quick period after Trump / Iran spat when shares his 2320p but they are now below 2200 again and seemingly can gain no traction. With oil supply steady and prices back to $62 i dont see a major ramping up of share price in short term. I hope that the crystal ball gazer who forecasts £27 is correct, he can buy my shares for 2650p and make a quick profit. Whilst good on the quarterly dividends, I now believe I need to be out of oil and gas as soon as possible as i dont see heady share price gains in the current climate. 5 years ago RDSB was 2274 and so is down 5% (approx) on today's price of 2185p. Not many traders would have kept their jobs if they returned 5% loss in five years and I believe that foregoing the decent dividends would be rewarded by finding other companies offering possibly lower didi but some consistent share price growth. Whilst decent for income investors and tracker fund / pension managers, not sure its a share to get comfortable on. Lets hope that I am wrong, but looking at the historical charts and growing pressure to reduce oil/gas consumption am not so sure.

Lets hope your analysis is correct. For the record, despite my previous views, as a shareholder i want this company and share price to perform, even modestly would be acceptable for a long term hold with excellent dividends etc. My view is that too many shareholders may have lost patience, and even worse, faith with Aviva performance, plus add into the mix that the city boys don't really go for this share, perhaps they cannot make money and prefer riding the ups and downs and shorting of shares such as EZJ/BAT/ miners etc. If they can turn a few pence on such shares in the hundreds of thousands they buy/sell then its been a good day, however this doesnt help the steady share holder.

Lets see if AV rises to its deserved value, the PE and EPS data is excellent. Perhaps its a reverse bumble bee, it shouldnt fly, and well, its not flying yet!!. Just be a little careful, a very wise man once told me that "you never get fat on jam tomorrow promises"
Finally, regards MTB comments on price and value been the same, well my commercial life has been littered by those who knew the price of something and not the value, and consequently when they purchased something on price, they usually found out later why it was cheap. Value is price plus (?) and value is often secured at a premium. I hope that AV does become a premium stock and we can all toast our wisdom of buying and holding through the troubled waters of recent years. Fingers crossed.!!

Sorry MTB, I didnt mention the word cheap in my initial response. PSN/TW/RRW are not cheap even when you factor in their recent euphoric lift due Torries win / Brexit confirmation. Its value that counts in a share and I believe that potentially they, in response to another post offer better value than AV. AV "average" range is 400-10 and this has been the case for too long for a company with the cash reserves etc previously pointed out. There is something which is pegging back a valuable company. PSN has moved from 1825 to 2975 in 3 months, wouldnt AV holders like some of that in their investment, plus PSN looks to be able to sustain this for 2020 and possibly beyond. Why do so many tipsters of decent financial publications and brokers all have TW/PSN close to their top picks, I haven't seen one such call for AV. Appreciate your views on house builders volatility, but when we look in the current climate and 2 year window, they will out perform AV on sp growth and divi payment. They even be a more interesting holding, if even for the ups and downs in the next 2 years. There is strong demand and regained confidence for house builders products, not so for insurance!! All said and done I own 8000 AV shares and just want some positivity and joy for my pains, not a lot to ask from such a company. My bet still stands that at 430+ there will be sellers due to disenchantment at AV, and in quite some numbers, but you can then pick them up if you want at 430+ and hold for 550/600. But I wouldnt hold my breath waiting.

Currently many of the profile house builders offering significant sp growth and forecast share price reslience, PSN the obvious choice or favourite , as is Taylor W, however i like Redrow who rumour has it are forecasted to offer strong market report and dividend increase to 7%. Already so far this week SP has increased from 770 to 795p (back to 790 today). Some of the brewers such as Marstons whilst offering smaller divi have better chance on sp growth, the news is that pub sales have reversed and new opening increased, plus as per the fate of Greene King, always the rumour of buy out. I do not think that there is any argument that AV has languished at best and most likely disappointed. More worryingly, I dont see anything concrete about a turn around, apart from if's, but's and maybe's. Not seen anything from AV which would try to alleviate investors concerns or hint at positivity. many others are competing much better for our investment £. My other concern is that once there is stagnation around a share, its hugely difficult to throw off the fickle (and yes I may be one of them) investors who are easily spooked. Just watch the sell numbers when sp returns 430+. These sellers will all have targets they feel better than AV, but who will be best placed will be hard to say. Without a shadow of doubt, AV needs some good news to boost its flagging interest, and quick, as the sellers are gathering interest to dispose of holding, even if only in part..

Does anyone view the departure of Adrian M as a sign of action to change delivery or simply a departure of longstanding board member. May be interesting to see if market makers see this as the awakening of this slumbering behemoth.

As per my earlier comments, I believe that there is a raft of holders awaiting to ditch when sp gains small traction. I hope that AV Board feels this sentiment as they cannot solely rely on the institutional investors, they are purely mercenary. This is catch 22 I believe. Any good news and progress will be met with a sell off in the early stages as those waiting to exit act. The hard nosed will remain but I believe face more headwinds than fair winds. Without doubt there are better opportunities both within the sector itself and outside.

As usual, the sentiment fro AV. is mixed and i fear that many investors are on the disenchanted side rather then the enchanted, and that as soonas a decent frice (430p) is reached mant will jump ship. So here's my dilema, 3 years ago i put 35k into fundsmith, now returning 73k. Since its inception in 2010 it has annualised returns of 18%, only 2018 was a very poor year at 2.2% which brought the annualised average down. Most years the return is circa 24-27% and this is why he handles 18.8 billion of investors money and does not put money into many UK companies as 65% is US based (Paypal/Microsoft etc). I cannot work out why i should give my cash to Aviva offering decent div per annum but pityfull SP growth and a ride on an emotional roller coaster. Many talk of better days to come, but am sure they were saying this 5 / 4/ 3/ 2 years ago as SP has stagnated or at best lurched on an average of 410p. Why don't i just give Tel my 35k in Aviva via an ISA in wife's name and sit back and let him return an average of 18%. Is it better to hold Fundsmith or Aviva long term, its still a long term hold. I am prepared to make a bet here and now. With Fundsmith price at 480p and Aviva at 4.10, in 5 years time Fundsmith will have outperformed Aviva, substantially, and my nerves will be less frayed!! Am not a Funsmith salesman, but 2019 returned nearly 26%, Aviva SP languishes at same level at best. Any views which confirm my simpletons view would help my dilema!!

Whilst this chat makes interesting/funny/concerning/confusing reading, I do have concern that all my other "office tips" have fared so much better than Aviva. BAT at 2910p now 3450p, ABF 2150 now 2650p AZJ 950p and now 1450p. Why of why cannot Aviva get some traction based on its earnings, profits etc as per nuri123a regular viewpoint. Buying more at less has its merits, but then makes it more critical when to sell, especially as the SP regularly dives. My concern is that as soon as SP reaches 440+ there will be a raft of selling activity and so the price will never really climb to 550-600p levels deserved. I only have about 34k with AV and daily wrangle with myself regards holding and take divi's or to "see the light" and bailout at 430+p. Would be good profits as my buy ins have all been at 390-410 p range and I had hoped we would be close to 500p territory now, some 2 years later.... Confused of Bham

With closure of all UK production sites and CEO departing, I have no surprise that in just over a week, MNDI price crashes (again!) from 1770p to 1590p. Great shame as I have high hopes for this business and its performance, even though cyclical. I can only hope that investors will see that the medicine taken, even though harsh is sign of action and proactivity to protect the long term health of the company, so there should be some share price return. Usually a new CEO is greeted with some share price optimism as the arrival of "a new broom", however, with 2 major and negative press announcements, does anyone else believe that recovery will be felt in the short term. Any views on divi cut??

HS2 beyond Bham now seemingly agreed and a leak purporting to claim HS2 will get the full nod as Johnson delivers on a spending pledge. Question remains BBY or GFRD. Divi Yield favours gfrd at 6.78% over 1.96% for bby, as does superior ROCE figures and divi cover position. Which one gets my hard earned cash is still a conundrum.

So, infrastructure UK is forecast to receive a spending boost by Tories, is the favourite share Costain, Balfour Beatty or Galliford. The latter two have greater HS2 exposure. Who puts their money where????? I would like an infrastructure company in my recovery portfolio, but which ??

Have been tracking COSTAIN for a few weeks when 160p (see previous posts). Was awaiting some price reduction from recent high of 195p before biting the bullet and buying at a price I was unhappy to pay, but thought the strengthening justified peoples view that infrastructure companies would fare well post election as Boris spends on promised projects. The recent crash back to 155p, although a great buy in range worries me further ........ with £9M loss on Spanish asset sale, and £20M as below, and with the recent interim divi cut, and an expected cut in final dividend May 2020 (lots of ands here!!) surely Galliford and Kier are better infrastructure buys. Is COSTAIN now a contrarian investor punt??? or does it still offer growth value?. Does anyone forecast a return to 400p+ in a reasonable time frame. Perhaps this is a buy, and then shut the share certs away in a draw somewhere for my grandkids to reap the benefit of........

My earlier post shows the vagaries of stock investing. Having waited to see where sp will finish I now find 195p too late to take up. Great news for stockholders but I am sure that as soon as I write the 10k cheque, sp will reduce and I will curse the Gods of Investing Logic!! I want a share
of Cost but cannot find any info as to why sp has risen strongly in a falling ftse, and if this is sentiment driven only may reverse. Not much on Costain web pages, not even half year result statement. Will wait and see Mon/Tues if price reduction happens and am tempted or if this bus has left the stop and I need another ride home.