Member Info for prussell1963

JJ, surely after consolidtion you WOULD (excuse capitals) expect to be better poisitioned by the amount of the spec divi per share. I would hate to see that the share price stays the same circa 247p as surely with less shares in circulation x share price the capitalisation of the company is less.? I had hoped to see a clear benefit delivered with the spec divi (£1300 in my case) but this will not be the case after consolidation. I will have fewer shares (by approx 537 shares which equates to £1326) . TSCO Board has already said they dont expect share price to change and I assusme they mean reduce on ex dividend basis (51p). So my £1300 thank you dividend has been clawed back by reducing my shares. This would have been fine if the apitalisation had increased share price (fewer shares covering the same business value gives increased price per remaining share). This only works favourably if the sp does increase sugnificantly quickly to reflect better value based on above, but this wont happen. I think a sell off after spec divi as owners see the spec divi doesnt actually deliver and share price will come under pressure, especially as those who purchased at sub 240p (seemingly the magic number) take their spec divi and sell their remaining holdings, as we dont actually get 51.3p of value when consolidation is taken into account. Smoke and mirrors and slight of hand definately come to mind. I am assuming that the institutional investors have a view, but cannot find out what it is!!

Here's the dilema: original purchase 2550 shares at 220p = £5610 outgoing. This is my breakeven / profit level. Going forward shows 2557 shares becomes 2013 shares x 247p (todays price) = £4972 + £1300 special divi (2550 x51p) = £6272 - £5610 = £662 profit with Spec divi, or if I sell 2550 at todays price of 247p = £6298. Profit £688. So against todays price which Tesco Board want to maintain hence the consolidation, in reality I dont get a spec divi of £1300 I( get either a profit of £662 or £688.
I am sure many others will have similar calculations and wonder why the kerfuffle of spec divi which does seem to have given with one hand and the consolidation has taken it all with the other????? So why bother, why not simply use the money to paydown more debt and pension defecit etc. I thought "at last, a bloody share win" when I looked to get £1300 in the pocket. Should have known it was never going to be that straight forward....... "The Lord Giveth and,".... well you know the rest!!
I cannot be bothered to sell for £26 differential as £12.99 will be taken in dealing fee, so difference is £13. Will hold on and see if I get another 7p Final divi for 2020 which I believe is payable in July 2021, anyone know if this is correct?

Blooming Ada Shady..... thoughts like that will stir up a hornets nest !!!!

What a difference a day makes!! Interesting to see a raft of blue on the buy list after lunch, but since 15.45 seems the sellers are gaining in numbers ....... day traders taking a profit, i dont believe so looking at the volumes being sold...... seems even with 500k GH purchase there is a slide sentiment currently. Came to GGP late, at 28p so am considering a purchase to average down exposure. The numbers look good for LTH but sentiment can kill a share price. My finger was hovering over my Buy button but think I will see what tomorrow brings now.... in an ideal world I can get in at 22.5p again and see 35p by end of week.... I BLOODY WISH!!

As per my earlier post, unlikely things happen, well in terms of J2 the price has risen 50p today in a hugely challenging market with ongoing issues with C19 vaccine supply, holidays recommencing in time for summer etc. Logic just left the building in disgrace!!! I came to my desk hoping to buy back my J2 shares at circa 1200p in current environment ....... hence Logic was sacked and has departed the building. J2 is a well managed business and has good cash resources after selling its frozen logistics business. When Flybe flew off J2 fought hard for their landing slots and I was told they wanted to increase their London airport slots as a real kickstarter as well as their successful Bristol gains. At the same time, a pal of mine is an aviation fuel delivery driver at BHX and he confirmed that J2 deliveries and contracts had significantly increased (pre C19 of course!) so the signs were good ..... then C19.

Leas, agree with your thoughts on J2, another great transport stock which has given me a good ride 9did you see what i did there!!) was National Express. Great businesses in USA and Spain not just UK coaches (20%). I got in at 112p at start of C19 travel issues and it has touched 270p lately, but IMHO its a return to 350p and above when C19 impact reduces and we all want to catch the coach to Bognor, or fly J2 to Benidorm!! Stay well everyone.......

As a fairly disgruntled LTH of AV, buying in at 415p has made a decent hole in my portfolio for nearly 2 years and as per previous posts of mine, I genuinely dont see AV returning as one of the darlings of the FTSE. Like the business its in, its boringly un-intersting. I thought I would be better off buying an Index Tracker, but as AV seemingly tracks the rise and falls of the FTSE anyhow, despite anything the woeful BOD seem to action, why bother. It so boring I cannot even be bothered to do the comparison!! Divi reduction was the only heart racing moment for AV in recent times, and that was negative news for shareholders. Will AV ever deliver a major positive (please dont remind me that SP has grown from 220p to 340p in 12 months, thats no consolation for LTH's who trusted AV at higher prices to deliver a pension dividend income !)

To TheThinker, woww! A forecast of 800-1000p looks unlikely, but as we have all seen, unlikely happens. My niece works at J2 and confirms she believes they are a well run company, which many belived also based on SP heights of 1970p in 2019. I bought in at 466p and held until recently but sold and pourchased Tesco, also at a very good 219p (touched 250p this week) and has a special divi of 51p in Feb, so J2 was a good profit spring into another decent profit spring which I hope TSCO will be. I didnt want to sell J2 but also didnt want to be sentimental in holding and it had done its job for the time being. I do hope to get back in as I strongly believe that pubs, travel, hospitality, holidays etc will be strong recoveries over 12 months. I want to buy back in to J2 but not at 1250-1300 levels as there could be bigger dips ahead, so will watch with interest with "cash on the hip". I dont see 1100p re-appearing, as soon as it touched 1180p then demand picked up, but I would get in at circa 1150 levels as by end 2022 I see close to 2000p.

Hi leas, yes I benefited from being a Greene King shareholder, both in terms of their eventual purchase price and by their shareholder benefit scheme, they had a very generous 25% discount and I think it could be used 4 times per week........... JET2 is my preferred airline stock, I bought in at 460p (its high was 1970p) and sold at 1300p to buy my TSCO holding. I am hoping that TSCO will be the same springboard into other holdings, building each time. JET2 touched back at 1188p earlier this week and has recovered to 1250p and I believe that again as soon as this horrible pandemic allows, there will be a huge surge in travel, pubs, restaurants etc and many of these companies are already preparing for this....... its about choosing the right one, like all things in life it seems! Stay safe everyone

Hi leas, in honesty I dont have a target yet, however am keen to get something invested in hospitality as a long term recovery plan. Interesting that one article in Mail on Sunday has boosted NIGHTCAP by 0ver 40%, but I do question my own reasoning for considering dropping TSCO for hospitality, think its the gambler/punter in me. So for the time being I may sit on my hands and watch TSCO and put time into hospitality research. No question in my mind that as soon as is possible and for next 2 years, airlines, hospitality, holiday comapnies etc, all the things we take for granted which have been removed will see a spike/boom from current all time low share prices. There is a degree of FOMO re hospitality recovery, however there is the same re mining, communications, tobacco etc, so its just a question of not getting bent of of shape on the misses and take heart from the hits!

As per my earlier posts below, after a night sleeping on it, i still cannot see the benefit of TSCO giving with one hand and taking with the other. The special divi is effectively wiped out by the 15/19 reduction. What is it I am not seeing?? Seems most believe that selling the share rather than taking the special divi is a btter option than holding....... surely thats not what TSCO Board wanted to achieve?????

Sorry MikeM14, was rushing my numbers as the boss was shouting that her washing up was more important. Yes, agree, with current 2550 holding this reverts to 2013 "new" shares. My basic maths , with just enough room left on the fag pack is, my original purchase was 2550 shares at 222p (inc dealing costs) total £5,660. Thats the number i need to beat for the specdivi to be interesting, So, if i start with £5660, deduct £1300 specdivi = £4360 divid again by 2013 new shares = 217p per share to stand still. So with a SP profit of difference between current price 240p and 217p = 23p per share x 2013 = £463.
The inital euphoria of getting 51p x 2550 and maintaining 2550 shares has now waned considerably based on above. If share price stays at 240p and I take the specdivi my actual "profit is approx £462- dealing cost = £450. My dilema is whether to take 2550 shares x 243p (today finish I think) = £6196 - initial £5660 spend = £536 profit minus dealing = £520. So the specdivi has lost its apeal, UNLESS I believe that I can bank the divi and then see SP increase over 250-275p range which at 275p would see a £1175 profit, but still lower than the £1300 specidivi (bonus!) i thought i was going to bank. Not easy this share buying lark.... thank God that nice Mr Terry Smith takes care of most of my investments!!

So are TSCO using the specdivi to stop a major sell off after banking it?. Looking at IAPR calcs below which are similar to my own, it seems clear that the specdivi benefit is actually swallowed up by the reduction in shares for most. I purchased 2550 shares at total cost of £5620 (220p per share) based on my revised holding I will see 1974 shares plus approx £1300 specdiv which at current price of 240p = £4740 + 1300 = £6037 (divded by 1974 = 304p per share value to get my £6k back.

this now begs the question is it worth holding for the divi and lower share holding or sell at highest point, giving up the specdivi and be happy with the 20p per share I have made?? Do i think TSCO will ramp quickly to £3 per share to make effectively re-instate the sepcdivi value....... not sure.....

Seems that TSCO have given with one hand and taken with the other !!!

Thanks all for your prompt and helpful responses. I did read that GGP was one of the best BB's on LSE, can see why now. Have found most of what I wanted to read on these various links. Would have been even better to read a hugely successful report on Scally and others which will help move the current SP past its resistance price of circa 36-38p. Cheers again all...

Hi, long time reader of GGP board, but am afraid short time actual investor as I missed the meteoric rise from 4p as I feared it had topped out so many times before I took the plunge! Question is, I see loads of comments regards Scallywag & Scally projects and that a report on sames mining results due very shortly, but I see nothing on GGP website relating to Scallywag. What am I missing here??

HI Rosewall, we do indeed live in unprecidented times (possibly). Every chance that many ftse100 (in particular) companies who shelved their dividends in 2020 will be under pressure from the big boys to get some much needed income back into the funds coffers, especially any that are deemed to have prospered under C19, albeit unwillingly when general situation is taken into wider view. I do have some concern that we havent yet heard of annuity pension defaults due to lack of funds ...... maybe this is the next headache around the corner ??

Terry Smith, who knows far more about investing than many of us ever will, based on his own personal fortune success!! claims that share buy backs and special dividends should only be used if there is no better use for the cash to grow the value of the business. He actually puts the idea that Boards who offer such may be suffering from an inability to act in the growth and value interest of the business overall. A lack of imagination possibly??

Can anyone clarify returns to shareholders from PSN for 2021 as I am confused by conflicting data. PSN website shows new Capital Return to Shareholders as 110p Late March and 125p early July. Are these in addition to the 70p dividend received Dec20? Dividendmax only shows next dividend Sept 21. Am i mixing up the Capital Return Program and the dividend program.

Would be very helpful if someone could clarify (so I can book a holiday if the CRP and dividends are to happen independantly!!) Cheers all and stay safe

As I visit AV board periodically and have previously posted that AV 2020 actions were deplorable and neednt have been taken so harshly, (part divi paid?) and that the ever revolving door of senior appointments does nothing to warm the ****les of investors hearts, I cannot make out if I am pleased that the BB retains the same acidic views from many to the BOD or disappointed that feeling against AV hasnt moved on. I still believe that the SP lags and will lag other INS/FIN companies, simply because there is an "air" about AV and noise of huge disatisfaction from their private investors, many of whome will, as soon as price levels return will dump the stock in numbers. My previous posts also wondered if AV BOD had taken the temp of ill feeling amongst many of its longer term investors, or even cared, I doubt it. AV is using the C19 pandemic to realign its divi policies as they now have a scape goat on which to do so. Doing this outside of C19 or other pandemic, or war etc would have caused major ructions. Now they have a get out as to why they are holding such a war chest of money whilst its investors/owners get crumbs. I only hold 10k shares, sadly purchased at 400p for my pension, so like others feel the pain. I for one will maintain my stance of dumping AV as soon as possible, even to my possible long term cost. I simply dont like the way the behave and am happy to vote with my feet and ethics.

Just finished reading Terry Smiths book Investing for Growth and so now feel a fully qualified commentator on all things financial (lol) . However, one point he continues to make, and whatever your views you cannt but agree he knows what he's doing (with £22Bn of others money!), share buy backs should only be considered IF there is no better use for the available money. He holds that many buy backs are a sign of un-imaginative management peddling the view that buy backs take shares off the market so improving the yield,and price of the remaining shares on the market. If TSCO are using mone yo pay down debt / pension shortfall and their is no better use of the cash then fine, but in such lean dividend times, a decent windfall special would be most welcome. So we gain on one hand, but could he be correct and TSCO seniors dont actually have an imaginative use for the cash to improve the business long terms and hence sp growth?? Answers to eltel@fundsmith.

Why can AV never hold on and consolidate gains even in a rising FTSE100?? With more money coming into the coffers from sale of remainder of Italian operations causing a huge cash surplus (unless I have missed volumes on a re-investment plan) way is this share stuck in the doldrums. City slickers obviously don't fancy AV as much as others. With AV unable to maintain 335-340p range I can only hope that the cash is used to paydown debt which should release additional shareholder payments, as previously stated by AB - let's see what BOD do with the additional cash as am sure this will indicate their competence and imagination as business leaders.