On the topic of Downsizing, I fear that AV are not only downsizing their Company portfolio, but also there engagement with their share holders. Dreadful decisions on dividends, dreadful short term senior appointments leaving dreadful investor relationships. As I have posted previously, I hear more from those who want a share price recovery so allowing them to bale out of AV . This really a Marmite share /company. Those who have bought in at the lows of 270-320p range will love it as a divi yield of approx 6-7% is good, but those longer term holders at 400p+ wont share same feelings after losing the final divi and seeing a 30% cut in future dividends. I hold approx 10,000 shares and will be putting these on the market as soon as financially possible, simply because I have poor regard for the company, BOD and its treatment of shareholders. I simply dont want to hold shares in such a company, a bit old fashioned and I know too emotional, but something about AV sticks in my craw!! Maybe other companies are no worse or no better, that's fine by me and I understand this. But I just don't like been an AV investor . I would rather take my £35k and give it Terry Smith who will make we 20% annualised return. Here endeth todays ranting!! and I played crap golf earlier today!
Whilst looking for a bit of portfolio diversification, I have long though the road and rail to recovery outside of Brexit would favour infrastructure / major construction projects companies, especially with confirmation of HS2 progress. I am mystified as to why the likes of Morgan S / Costain / Kier and BBY have seen the pick up in share prices expected. BoJo has signalled many times that infrastructure projects are at the heart of recovery, so why no progress?? Have we in reality spent our all our money on fighting C19? Surely Govnmt will want to progress projects which make impact on the UK and travel/hospital/schools /rail and roads which will see many back in work and then working with the finished product must fit the bill. BBY has a 5 year average SP of 225/230p and has been flat. Even with todays news on buyback and possible dividend restarting at final year havent budged the price, it actually fell back from a high of 276p to close at 266p below its open. Is anyone excited by the potential orders which should flock to BBY's door and hence make the SP move?? Also very quiet BB from what I can see.
Following commentary on Hargreaves L site, and it doesn't make positive reading. As I stated earlier, the article comments on "same old same old" regards AV issues and inability to sort them out. Its a very disparate business probably pulling in un-coordinated directions. HL and I suspect other analysts are still on sideline regards AB strategy working and a full assessment must be taken after a full year trading. Regards additional "special dividends and cash returns to shareholders, the article finishes with "we think those kinds of exceptional payments are some way off" and "Given a relatively healthy capitalisation Aviva looks in pretty good shape to weather the storm, but we find it difficult to be enthusiastic about the long run.".
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202011/aviva-dividend-reset?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00RN&utm_content=Share%20research&theSource=E00RN&Override=1&cid=halDM154434&bid=611391410&e_cti=10237699&e_ct=F&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00RN_Share%20research%20update_new_Research_OPTINS_26.11.20&theSource=E00RN&Override=1
But if you get 28p for the full year payout and the price recovers above 326p then the divi yield falls...... yes you get both the sp gain and divi and a new calculation is needed, just a point . Most would rather see sp increase from poor levels to 400p than crow about yield as the sp growth outstrips any dividend in this case.
I see that in the above AV News tab, AV has received a target price reduction to 360p whereas L&G continues to see a target price increase from 311p to 331p . Lets hope the news 26/11 is more encouraging and long term we can get a stable platform for growth.
Hi Alex2570, my point is that if AV dont pay a final divi for 2019, preferring to hang on to war chest cash until C19 situation is clearer, then it is not unreasonable to expect a stronger 2021 combined divi of circa 33-35p full year. AV paid 31p full year divi previously 2018, and so with over £12Bn in bank, we could expect a 4% growth in 2021 dividends = 32.25p, so with a magnanimous and compensatory gesture against a poor 2021, then I wouldnt see 33p min as a stretch divi. However, if AV do pay a 2019 final divi around 15p (not the 24p some are forecasting) then they can revert to previous divi with normal divi growth. I think that AV need to be paying 33p min full year div just to keep pace with the yields and divi growth offered by many other ftse100 companies to ensure that the investor income continues and is retained. There is poor sentiment around AV since its Hokey-Cokey management program and its harsh treatment of investors, and it would be easy to see investment cash drift away. L&G has a positive aura around it, AV doesn't but I am not sure which is the better business, Cityboys seem to think L&G in the short/medium term, I for one would like to see AV's BOD stand up and show them some challenge to this.
Interesting strategy, one for the brave I think. I tracked NEX for a while and bought 5000 shares at 112p, my dilemma now is HOLD, PART SELL, LIQUIFY for PROFIT. I want to be a long term hold of this stock at least into the £3+ area, then I can worry a bit more!! The sp must increase as travel returns to normal Q1/21 etc....... shouldnt it??
Its also interesting that so many more scribes and broker sites tip L&G over AV. I have viewed several with L&G as 2021 strong tip, but cannot remember any one championing AV. They do have a troubled path with investors, but do they want to smooth this or keep the cash in a strong war chest. Unless 2021 dividends are "substantial" ie 33-35p combined then the label of being one of the "dogs" of the ftse will continue which could see the investment cash favour L&G and others.
With another £400M added to the coffers then there should be an outcry if investors are overlooked, again! However, the announcement comes on the cusp of uncertain vaccine data, even tho it looks positive. I would not be at all surprised if AV held back from a decent final divi for 2019 (paid Dec 2020) and went with circa 15p, holding back distribution cash until vaccines produce a more normal environment and current / future impact can be calculated more realistically. I have said previously there seems a lot of unhappy shareholders with AV investor relationship and performance and unless they return to strong divi payouts (considering the £12Bn in the bank!!) many will opt to sell AV stock as soon as 400p is near. There are many other better platforms which in short term will produce more cash as business return. I have done well out of JET2 and NEX, and IAG is now up over 65% since all time low. Does AB spend the cash to placate income investors or show the City a steady but firm hand on the tiller...... my guess is the later . 15p is my guess and not 24p.... should be made clear this week I believe (update 26/11??)
Agree this is a woefully performing share compared to its peer group, and with billions in cash reserves I have no idea why it languishes in the "dogs" category. What I find more stunning or stupefying is that I never see anything positive, supportive or conciliatory from AV to its shareholders. At the time of previous AGM I emailed AV on the contact address asking 3 simple questions 1) did BOD ever read the damning and derogeratory comments investors have towards AV which populate numerous investment chat sites 2) why does L&G deliver better results and seems to value its shareholders better than AV 3) Why was AV poor at engaging with its shareholders during difficult times, not a single "hang on in there etc" . The answer returned was as derisory as the share price performance. Some PR geek span words of platitude, none of which frankly suited AV share price position at the time, nor now. I have said previously, I believe that AV BOD should hand their heads in shame in regards of their share price performance. If I could be bothered I would look to see if any of the BOD had been topping up whilst sp is in the doldrums. Good if youve got the cash, but as so many would have invested pensions into AV, not so good when the share price performance is poor at very best. I assume that as soon as SP returns to pre Covid 400p, many will dump and get into better investments, unless AV stiffen the dividend and for once, consider valuing their shareholders. My rant of the day over, I feel better now I have gotten that off my chest!!
BB, sensible response and in honesty one i have been considering for a while. My options were a) average down by additional purchases of rdsb b) sell the lot and try to claw back loses via another purchase - but as always the secret and skill is always which one?? Both are sort of catching a falling knife scenario, and would RDSB recovery present a better option than reinvestment in other stock. Its a big call. I am down £20k and so would need to take my remaining £20k and virtually double it to recover my RDSB loses. Who will do that and quicker than rdsb??? My other calls although more risky have been much better NEX purchased at 112p now hit 225p and JET2 purchased at 430p hit 1250p today, but as they were contrarian buys I only put £5k each. I suppose in a nutshell this is the risk and reward of share purchase, however not sure anyone would bet the likes of RDSB would offer a halving in shares against the above who doubled as a minimum. Hindsight is 20/20 and I would have loved to have flogged RDSB at 1700p when JET2 was 430p, I would look like a right bright spark then !!
All, some very interesting posts regards Biden impact and Iran oil position etc, but all seemingly short term views???
The BIG question many will have regards Shell is do you believe that it will recover its £20-24 share price, if so when.
Many people would have brought into RDSB (2018-19) as it held £20+ for a while, especially those looking for dividend income, at the time what better choice was there?? I am £20k down as of today ...... Will I see my investment returned, if so when??
Please reassure me as I dont have a strategy myself. I did consider buying more at 950p range to average down my investment so I could consider bailing at approx 1750p range, but after such a kicking, not sure I want to now offer my chin for a smack!
LG, I think that in current market when FTSE shares have been at 20 year lows (well apart from Tech and newbies etc), many have bought in at all time low values and as soon as a decent SP is achieved, then they understandably take profits. With NEX touching 112p (my buy in point) , there approx 60p on the table in less than 2 months. With decent return such as this, many sell and pressurise the SP maintainance longer term. So IMO shares will bounce around for a while until many of the short term profit takers have sold and moved on, volatility is reduced and true value and growth can be viewed.
My thoughts have momentarily turned from SP to dividends, but with ongoing difficulties in the transport sector I assume any such consideration by Board is 2H21 at earliest??
Looking at recent and previous posts, seems everyone here is along for the ride on SP growth over next 1-3 years with some decent levels predicted. With some of the below fiscal data then I assume that dividend consideration is well into the back of most shareholders minds?? Previous dividend years have produced approx 12p-15p total divi which would be an approx divi yield of 8% on todays share price, which is unrealistic. Any views or comments on a return to dividend, or is this a 2022 consideration only. If companies decline to reinstate dividends, how much would this deter future / new investors?
Periodically visit the AV. board and looking over my previous readings and posts, the same message apparent, "jam tomorrow" with AV. Much warm, if not hot air regards undervalued SP, however it has seemingly become ll too comfortable at 280-290p range, a long way off its 400p+ levels. Its a steady, uninspiring stock of a well managed company but without its return to decent dividends may be the home for safe and steady investment, there is substantially better value for the investing £ I believe. NEX and JET2 in my opinion as a contrarian investment will go well when normality returns, and for my sake I hope RDSB reverses its decline back to near 2000p. AV are set to announce their 2019 FINAL divi in Q4/20 of which we still have 6 weeks left, but if they are to declare and make payments surely it should be confirmed very soon?
Anyone got a view as to when shareholders will hear a confirmation and by what amount, is 15p per share realistic. When you draw a comparison between the previous 9p interim and 21p final payments, then the recent 6p could make 15p?? Views?
Only 2 brief comments: a) anyone expecting a positive note of Q4 dividend announcement which is still pending b) even with the infrastructure announcement AV languishes at 280-290p range, is there a more boring FTSE100 stock at the moment.
Yes am sure response will be "its stabilised" but many are desperate for a return to north of 350p + to recover losses. AV remain quiet on long term shareholder reward and understanding of hugely poor performance, even with C19 impact. Personally as soon as a 400p+ price is reached its bale out time as I don't believe that AV will see 500p+ again for a substantial time. Great if your a dividend hound, IF they re-instate 7%+ yields, but being an AV holder is like watching paint dry.......
Seems the pattern continues, decent rise early morning pared back during the day. Seems the stable price is currently 120p, not sure the forecasted 100p or 200p prices will be achieved. I wonder if those holding significant volumes are trying to create a demand for NEX shares to aid an upward push in sp based on the bullish comments I read.?? I still wait in the wings for a better price, but agree I may miss the boat or coach in this case!. My reservations remain a) no divi b) languishing sp (both for obvious reasons) c) ongoing " jam tomorrow" forecasts not supported by any sp rise or confidence as it cannot hold any traction for a day. I do now wish I had taken up a friends share tip on Greatland Gold at 7p, now trading at 21p only 3 weeks later .... I hope for NEX holders sake that similar would happen, but I don't see a tripling in sp to 360p in the short term, so agree its a slow burner, at the moment......
PB1, my plan is to hold 2-3 years on the belief that travel recovery should see this share comfortably 300-350p range, unless situation deteriorates further. I understand that the profit between buying at 100-110p range and the current 120p average is almost negligible in 3 years, but, as NEX is not a good dividend payer I want to ensure that if possible I buy wisely. Am afraid that as I took my pension in 2019 and hence invested loads pre C19 I don't want another loss, or loss of faith!! I am tired of buying and seeing price drop, and as I am trying to be more considered in my purchases, I am trying to take a "view in the round" . Also, as a Brummie, I would like to hold NEX asa local company, I know call me stupid for being sentimental, something investors should avoid! So, its not concern on my selling price, but my buying price. Ideally as soon as I have done the deal, I hope for meteoric price rise so I can sel!
Also, whilst doing my own research, why are 9 of the 10 NEX board members Independent Non-Executive Directors? When I read this on Wikip, seems QUOTE "A non-executive director (abbreviated to non-exec, NED or NXD), independent director or external director is a member of the board of directors of a company or organisation, but not a member of the executive management team. They are not employees of the company or affiliated with it in any other way and are differentiated from executive directors, who are members of the board who also serve, or previously served, as executive managers of the company." UNQUOTE. Is this normal or even worrying, if so to what extent......
If UK is small beer to NEX revenue, based on current C19 progress across NEU, if USA / Brazil / South America and South Africa are all to see "2nd wave" increase, surely NEX USA revenues will be impacted?? As may Morocco , Spain and Middle East markets. If this happens then the impact is on the bigger revenue streams and so impact on SP could be considerable. With Trump focusing on preserving his POTUS position will he (be able to) protect USA from another spike, I dont believe so as C19 increases massively as soon as engagement happens. If US / ME / MED areas follow NEU then surely inevitable that revenues will be hit Q4/20 and/or Q1/21........ personally I am waiting a week or 2 to see what happens as I do want to be a NEX holder but want to avoid paying anything upto 15% on current price if my portent of doom unfortunately happens. From an impact on peoples health, I sincerely hope not, but as a possibility , as an investor i must consider.