Member Info for Proselenes

Yes, Bayansayr is the nearest town and where they are for WH is much warmer than the North or North East.

Weather is lovely at the moment and in fact even in December the daytime temperature is rarely forecast to drop below minus 10.

www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/october-weather/241957?monyr=10/1/2018

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25 days to drill to TD and then 5 days to log............as has been said before and as on the video. Thats the 30 days and that should be the expectation, 30 days to an RNS with WH-1 results.

The range 30 to 45 just covers for the unexpected......if all goes to plan its 30 days to drill and log.

So basically, just work to 30 days from spud date.

And now people know the GCOS is 20% for WH-1, and that it will be spud this year and will complete this year, we can all move on.

I guess so many people have emailed them owing to the nonsense spouted by Fundy and others that they thought best way to clear this up is to put out an Ops Update.

Behind where I expected them to be...........but on course for completion in 2018 so fine......no issues......the potential oil there is not going away whether they drill this year or next.

Should also be cleared up on the Geological Chance of Success.

The GCoS for Wild Horse-1 is 20% (the GCoS for CHAR and Prospect S is 29%).

The Edison report refers to the Pc value (this is the Chance of Commercial Success) with is a prospect size weighted discount on the GCoS taking into account field development economics.

So people saying CHAR has 29% and MATD 9% are incorrect....this is comparing apples to pears........... in GCoS terms MATD WH is 20% and CHAR S is 29%.

CHAR have not given a Pc value for Prospect S, but imagine it would be very low (lower than WH) considering cost to develop offshore and location.

What can we expect in the next 2 years ?

That all depends on how the drilling goes.

What we see at least is a clear strategy.

Elephant hunting via Wild Horse-1 in Block IV and Fox-1 in Block V backed up by in effect appraisal drilling at Block XX to get some production and cash flow in the event the elephant hunting fails.

If Wild Horse-1 or Fox-1 strikes oil, then expect a farm out over winter with a Major oil company coming in and then lots more exploration and appraisal in Blocks IV and V.

If WH-1 and Fox-1 fail then expect MATD to concentrate on Block XX drills, get production from them and get needed cash flow and reserves. This is very much the back up plan which ensures the company has life and a good share price (all 3 Block XX drills are worth more individually on success than the current share price of MATD, from this price it could even be a big multibagger if the bigger Red Deer Block XX drill comes in).

So thats pretty much where it is, success at WH-1 or Fox-1 and expect fireworks, farm in and big things from the newest big onshore oil basin discovered in the world.

If those 2 exploration wells fail then expect more pedestrian Block XX drilling (already have 3 wells fully funded for drilling in 2019) to get the company production and cash and reserves, still with decent upside from the current price and multibagging potential.

Internal CoS for WH-1 is actually 20%. So the Elephant discovery of 2018 boils down to two last chances, CHAR with Prospect S and MATD with Wild Horse-1.

Success case upside is greater on MATD as the prospect is 100% owned and the PSC terms are superb.

A mere 150 million barrel recoverable size find on Block IV for MATD would have an NPV10 of 1.27 billion US$ thanks to low cost of development wells, easy trucking and very good PSC terms ** (that value will be higher now due to rising oil prices)

NPV10 based on Economics run at Dec ‘17 Forward Curve prices: 2018 $63.67/bbl, 2019 $60.58, 2020 $58.56, 2021 $57.62, 2022 $57.25, 2023 $57.22, 2024+ 2% Esc

Well Name: Wild Horse-1 Block IV

Targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (mid case) 100% owned

Additional follow on prospects of 750 million barrels rec. (900 million rec. high case) derkisked in the Wild Horse area if Wild Horse-1 is a success.

Internal company estimates give 20% chance of success for Wild Horse-1

Wild Horse-2 appraisal well already permitted for, in the event of success.

Wild Horse-2 would drill into the other side of the WH lead in the event of a WH-1 discovery.

Due to analogous basin geology across the border in China there is a higher than frontier chance of success for frontier levels of potential

Notable Chinese productive basins include: Junggar Basin 10 Billion barrels recoverable, Songliao Basin 20 Billion barrels recoverable and Bohai-S. North China Basin with 40 Billion barrels recoverable.

Well defined 4-way dip structure and amplitude anomalies that are indicative of hydrocarbons. (Soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure)

CEO Mike Buck comments that it is “A must drill well”. Royal Dutch Shell have told MATD they want to see Wild Horse-1 drilled.

Endorsed by Wood Mackenzie by their inclusion of Wild Horse-1 on their “one to watch wells in 2018” placing Petro Matad on a list alongside super majors like ENI and Repsol. The only onshore well to make it into the WoodMac list.

Sinopec state 25 days drilling time (in video www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u32kz )

** PSC terms (the important bit to value any discovery with)

0% Corporation Tax

Royalty: Block IV 8%

Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position as it can demonstrate it can repay debt out of Gross revenue rather than profits. Yes, that is remarkably excellent, even transportation costs to sell the oil are recoverable. Pretty much WOW.......... The whole lot, explo, dev, op, transport...all recoverable.

Contractor Profit oil split: Block IV 50% to 57%

You cannot really value an oil discovery unless you also know clearly the PSC terms, then you are able to get a real good read on the NPV10.

I will add the 25 days to drill from Sinopec comment video into an updated post.

Fundy, yes........now, did the rig up take 3 weeks ? or the H&S check ? or the facilities at the pad ? or.........you assume that the 3 weeks was just the rig but it could have been a number of other things. Were all facilities on site, was everything ready in advance ? Who had to come from UB to sign off ? What delays were there that they "learned a lot" as the CEO says in his Conference Call after spudding SL-1 thats available to listen to.

SL-1 was a mobilization of all equipment for the 1st time, lots of learning done. Now they started work at WH-1 in August (6 weeks ago now) and they intended to make this a "seamless" move and rig up. So you should expect everything to be much faster this time.

As for Wh-1..............Sinopec estimated with the rig they are using the SL-1 would be 70 days.........it was. Sinopec estimate with their rig that WH-1 will be 25 days. Lets see. The RNS you refer to is from February 2018.

Here is a video from March 2018 (so its the latest and up to date info) where the CEO says Sinopec say 25 days. This therefore is the info which is up to date, not your February 2018 RNS.

www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u32kz

Sinopec estimated and took 70 days at SL-1 as the geology is complex, lots of faulting.

Sinopec say WH-1 will be simple, benign geology and so 25 days.

Fundraiser, the only person terrified of WH-1 spudding appears to be you. A non holder, hater of MATD.

As I said, I hold over a million shares and I do not care if WH-1 spuds in October, or November, or April 2019, or May 2019............. the potential oil is not going anywhere. I am no so poor as I need to sell my shares over winter for some cash. My shares are fully paid for, I hold them and if spud is this year or next - I will be holding them for WH-1 and Fox-1 and the 3 potential Block XX drills.............whats the issue ? Who cares ? If the share price goes down or up between now and WH-1 spudding, or between now and Fox-1 spudding............ that has no effect on me......... I have my shares and I am holding for the results........not the spud. Thats what investing is........buy in and wait for the news when the results of the drilling and logging are known. Does not matter when it happens.

Ahhh now we are back to the old...........Why did not they not give an estimated date nonsense...............well, they have said they will inform the market when they spud. So thats it. Why do you, a non holder hater of MATD require a date ? I am holding well over a million MATD shares, I am relaxed and spud will be when spud will be.

So in comparison, fundy, you hate MATD, you hold no stock and you are anti-everything about MATD and yet.......you are demanding a spud date notice........... ??? Strange that.

Dont worry fundy, I will post the original post again before too long under ""Wild Horse - The info 2" so its back up the front and all your attempts to derail any real talk about MATD is lost............

Let me ask you this.........have Equinor/BP given a spud date for RN-1 ? Everyone on JOG wants to know, but they are not giving any date.......why is that ? Do most companies just get on with it, do most investors simply just wait for it............do most haters simply demand things that are not there, to give them something to moan about... LOL :)

And here is a video of the CEO saying it will be 25 days to drill WH-1 according to Sinopec.

www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u32kz

Poor Fundraiser has lost touch with reality and keeps imagining all sorts of weird and wonderful totally untrue things..........poor chap. We should all feel sorry for them, and dont worry, I have all my posts at the ready to copy and paste them each and every time Fundy tries to push............ :)

Internal CoS for WH-1 is actually 20%. So the Elephant discovery of 2018 boils down to two last chances, CHAR with Prospect S and MATD with Wild Horse-1.

Success case upside is greater on MATD as the prospect is 100% owned and the PSC terms are superb.

A mere 150 million barrel recoverable size find on Block IV for MATD would have an NPV10 of 1.27 billion US$ thanks to low cost of development wells, easy trucking and very good PSC terms ** (that value will be higher now due to rising oil prices)

NPV10 based on Economics run at Dec ‘17 Forward Curve prices: 2018 $63.67/bbl, 2019 $60.58, 2020 $58.56, 2021 $57.62, 2022 $57.25, 2023 $57.22, 2024+ 2% Esc

Well Name: Wild Horse-1 Block IV

Targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (mid case) 100% owned

Additional follow on prospects of 750 million barrels rec. (900 million rec. high case) derkisked in the Wild Horse area if Wild Horse-1 is a success.

Internal company estimates give 20% chance of success for Wild Horse-1

Wild Horse-2 appraisal well already permitted for, in the event of success.

Wild Horse-2 would drill into the other side of the WH lead in the event of a WH-1 discovery.

Due to analogous basin geology across the border in China there is a higher than frontier chance of success for frontier levels of potential

Notable Chinese productive basins include: Junggar Basin 10 Billion barrels recoverable, Songliao Basin 20 Billion barrels recoverable and Bohai-S. North China Basin with 40 Billion barrels recoverable.

Well defined 4-way dip structure and amplitude anomalies that are indicative of hydrocarbons. (Soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure)

CEO Mike Buck comments that it is “A must drill well”. Royal Dutch Shell have told MATD they want to see Wild Horse-1 drilled.

Endorsed by Wood Mackenzie by their inclusion of Wild Horse-1 on their “one to watch wells in 2018” placing Petro Matad on a list alongside super majors like ENI and Repsol. The only onshore well to make it into the WoodMac list.

** PSC terms (the important bit to value any discovery with)

0% Corporation Tax

Royalty: Block IV 8%

Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position as it can demonstrate it can repay debt out of Gross revenue rather than profits. Yes, that is remarkably excellent, even transportation costs to sell the oil are recoverable. Pretty much WOW.......... The whole lot, explo, dev, op, transport...all recoverable.

Contractor Profit oil split: Block IV 50% to 57%

You cannot really value an oil discovery unless you also know clearly the PSC terms, then you are able to get a real good read on the NPV10. Given the present oil prices and forward curve the NPV10 value stated above is actually low and should be considerably higher now.

A 5% CoS can come good and a 90% CoS can fail. Its all just statistics...........so far this year the 2 big wells of 2018 (both with 25% CoS) have both failed (RD-1 and Anapai-1).

So really, its now down to CHAR with Prospect S and MATD with Wild Horse-1 as to see if any company can have success on a Elephant prospect.

Wild Horse-1 is bigger impact as its 100% owned by MATD. CHAR only have a % of Prospect-S.

Given the soft amplitude anomalies at Wild Horse-1 I would suspect internally its a 25% CoS......... the company has NOT advertised any CoS..........only Edison have given a figure, but if the lead has soft amplitude anomalies, is a 4 way dip and is loved by Shell geologists.............its not the low % that Edison have it as............thats for sure.

WEATHER fundy ? Excellent for October.

First link shows my guesstimated approx locations of SL-1 and WH-1.

Second link shows the distance (300km as the bird flies or 450km by actual road)

http://oi68.tinypic.com/20f6ovk.jpg

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2vs3vc5.jpg

Bayansair (Bayansayr) is the nearest town. Daytime temperatures (they only drill daytime) are forecast to be above zero until mid-November.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/october-weather/241957?monyr=10/1/2018

October quite warm daytime.

November slipping to a negative daytime temperature from the 19th November onwards. Cold snap starting 18th November evening. Working back 30 days from then........... the latest date spud should be (for completion and logging in 2018) should be around 20th October. So as we stand now.

Prep work on WH-1 location began in August. Everything possible done in advance for seamless move.
SL-1 finished P&A on Friday 21st Sept.
Move and rig up has been ongoing to 8 days as of today.
22 days remain to get spud done by latest 20th October
Hopefully spud between 8th and 15th October.

Bayansair (Bayansayr) is the nearest town. Daytime temperatures (they only drill daytime) are forecast to be above zero until mid-November.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/october-weather/241957?monyr=10/1/2018

October quite warm daytime.

November slipping to a negative daytime temperature from the 19th November onwards. Cold snap starting 18th November evening. Working back 30 days from then........... the latest date spud should be (for completion and logging in 2018) should be around 20th October. So as we stand now.

Prep work on WH-1 location began in August. Everything possible done in advance for seamless move.
SL-1 finished P&A on Friday 21st Sept.
Move and rig up has been ongoing to 8 days as of today.
22 days remain to get spud done by latest 20th October
Hopefully spud between 8th and 15th October.

First link shows my guesstimated approx locations of SL-1 and WH-1.

Second link shows the distance (300km as the bird flies or 450km by actual road)

http://oi68.tinypic.com/20f6ovk.jpg

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2vs3vc5.jpg

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Indeed Ojay.......... :)

Spanish,

As little as possible :)

So...what do people think about the soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure on the Wild Horse-1 prospect ?

These are quite often very significant positive signs of hydrocarbons.