Member Info for Proselenes

CHAR have enough cash to pay for the ongoing Prospect S well. After that they dont have the cash to continue with any more wells.

If Prospect S hits oil, great, price rises, big placing at much higher price and off they go.

If Prospect S fails, price collapse and big placing at very much lower prices to fund the future.

They only have Prospect S as a funded well. Thats the trouble drilling without the funds for more wells in case the current one fails.

Thats why everyone loves Wild Horse-1. WoodMac, Royal Dutch Shell, Mike Buck and on and on.

4 way dip/fault closure is old school, thats how many of the worlds biggest oil discoveries were made just looking for these and drilling them before there was todays hi tech tools. Nothing better than a dome as a trap.

Bright amplitude anomalies as well............ conforming to structure.

3 stacked targets.

I would also say the GCOS is higher than 20%, but the data there is out there says that 20% is the figure MATD are using for Pg.

Hopefully both CHAR and MATD can deliver big oil discoveries to end 2018.

WH-1 site being prepared.

http://oi63.tinypic.com/1zegr44.jpg

.

Yes....you will see a very big volume day and a big big share price rise if they see oil in the drilling mud during drilling.

Could easily be 20p to 30p range before results come out.......and then could be anything on an oil discovery...........skies the limit.

You mean the 20% Geologic Chance of Success ?

Indeed........thats what you get for multi-tasking too many things.

Week of 26th Nov to 30th Nov then for news if they can spud by 29th October.

Wild Horse-1 spud later in October I am now expecting results on 4th December, around that date.

Spud around October 29th.....TD reached about 27th November.....pull the string, wireline logging.......results 3rd or 4th December.

Thats based on Sinopec delivering the 25 days to TD they estimate.

6.6p to buy for Fox-1 (33% GCOS) for 200MMBO recoverable and 3 drills on Block XX (each one on Block XX being worth more than the current share price).

But wait..........you get Wild Horse-1 (20% GCOS) for 480MMBO recoverable and accredited by WoodMac as one of the top 20 drills in 2018..................all for free...............

:)

Most of the muppets dont know what Pg and Pc figures are.

Pg is the Probability of geological success. This is what most companies always quote.

See here for CHAR. www.chariotoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Update-on-Namibian-Blocks-2312-2412A-1.pdf

The Edison report on MATD quoted Pc figures. These are the Pg figures weighted downwards, discounted. Eliminating small finds as noncommercial and so basically saying Elephant discovery or bust. In view of that the figures are much much lower than the standard Pg figures you mostly see.

Wild Horse-1 Pg figure is 20% - that is the Geological Chance of Success. This can be compared to CHAR and Prospect S which has a Pg of 29%.

The price today is actually excellent to buy in for Fox-1.

But you can buy in today so cheap for Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 and the three Block XX drills next year..........

Quite remarkable that one of the WoodMac top 20 wells for 2018 is available at this low share price with 320p a share of unrisked upside on a Pmean discovery size.

And the next well, Fox-1 on Block V spudding in April 2019 is similarly exciting, might be smaller, only (hahahaha) 200 million recoverable barrels potential and only 132p per share of unrisked upside, but the Geological Chance of Success is much higher, given the live oil from nearby coring and superb 3D, bright spots etcc.

And Fox-1 well thats just well number 3 of the 6 fully funded well program. Even if Wild Horse is a duster, we just take a rest for Winter and get ready to go again with massive upside in the Spring.

I have reworked the Fox-1 GCoS (Pg) and it comes out to 33%.

15% Pc and 33% Geological Chance of Success.(Pg)

33% GCoS on 200 MMBO recoverable, 100% owned - thats Fox-1 well spring 2019.

Updated and useful for newbies.

Well Name: Wild Horse-1 Block IV

Targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (mid case) 100% owned

Geological Chance of Success (Pg) = 20% for WH-1

Additional follow on prospects of 750 million barrels rec. (900 million rec. high case) derkisked in the Wild Horse area if Wild Horse-1 is a success.

Wild Horse-2 appraisal well already permitted for, in the event of success.

Due to analogous basin geology across the border in China there is a higher than frontier chance of success for frontier levels of potential

Notable Chinese productive basins include: Junggar Basin 10 Billion barrels recoverable, Songliao Basin 20 Billion barrels recoverable and Bohai-S. North China Basin with 40 Billion barrels recoverable.

Well defined 4-way dip structure and amplitude anomalies that are indicative of hydrocarbons. (Soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure)

CEO Mike Buck comments that it is “A must drill well”.

Royal Dutch Shell have told MATD they want to see Wild Horse-1 drilled.

Endorsed by Wood Mackenzie by their inclusion of Wild Horse-1 on their “one to watch wells in 2018” placing Petro Matad on a list alongside super majors like ENI and Repsol. The only onshore well to make it into the WoodMac list.

Spud late October 2019. Estimated 30 days to drill and log (up to 45 if delays)

Sinopec state 25 days to get to TD ( www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u32kz )

** PSC terms (the important bit to value any discovery with)

0% Corporation Tax (yes 0%)

Royalty: Block IV 8%

Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position as it can demonstrate it can repay debt out of Gross revenue rather than profits. Yes, that is remarkably excellent, even transportation costs to sell the oil are recoverable. Pretty much WOW.......... The whole lot, explo, dev, op, transport...all recoverable.

Contractor Profit oil split: Block IV 50% to 57%

A mere 150 million barrel recoverable size find on Block IV for MATD would have an NPV10 of 1.27 billion US$ thanks to low cost of development wells, easy trucking and very good PSC terms ** (that value will be higher now due to rising oil prices)

NPV10 based on Economics run at Dec ‘17 Forward Curve prices: 2018 $63.67/bbl, 2019 $60.58, 2020 $58.56, 2021 $57.62, 2022 $57.25, 2023 $57.22, 2024+ 2% Esc

Captain, I will give you a clue............

Car, winter, cover over the top overnight, wake up in morning, remove cover, start car.

No, they dont put a condom on the rig, but.............. I think you can work it out.

CHAR will spud today and drill time 40 days............so the CHAR result for Prospect S will now come in before MATD and Wild Horse-1.

Will 2018 end with 2 big discoveries.........or 1........or none.

Not long to wait now.

CHAR probably around 12th November for news.

MATD likely around 4th December for news.

CHAR Prospect S - Pg (GCoS) = 29%
CHAR Pmean 65% of 459 MMBO (298 MMBO to CHAR)

MATD Wild Horse-1 Pg (GCoS) = 20%
MATD Pmean 100% of 480 MMBO (480 MMBO to MATD)

Fundy, November 2009 (are we really talking 9 years ago..........your desperate).........that was over in the Ice Cold Eastern part of Mongolia.

Eastern and Northern Mongolia are bitterly cold.

Western Mongolia is the Gobi desert.............and in the more southerly western area its much much milder in winter.

So you are comparing the bitterly cold east in 2009 with the mild west in 2018..........Apples and Pears..........desperation really.

And here is the Weather forecast Fundy for the town closest to Wild Horse, the town of Bayansayr.

Weather is nice all the way to Christmas............daytime operating temperatures appear fine in the forecast for this rig.

www.accuweather.com/en/mn/bayansayr/241957/october-weather/241957?monyr=10/1/2018

.

Should also be cleared up on the Geological Chance of Success.

The GCoS (Pg) for Wild Horse-1 is 20% (the GCoS (Pg) for CHAR and Prospect S is 29%).

The Edison report refers to the Pc value (this is the Chance of Commercial Success) with is a prospect size weighted discount on the GCoS taking into account field development economics.

So people saying CHAR has 29% and MATD 9% are incorrect....this is comparing apples to pears........... in GCoS terms MATD WH is 20% and CHAR S is 29%.

You dont compare a Pg value to a Pc value...............

CHAR have not given a Pc value for Prospect S, but imagine it would be very low (lower than WH) considering cost to develop offshore and location.

20% GEOLOGIC CHANGE OF SUCCESS Pg

The 9% if the Pc value............ please read the Edison report.

LOLOL

And as per the video...........Mike Buck said..........30 days........... Sinpoec 25 days plus 5 days.......... and what do you know........MATD say 30 days too :)

Mmmmm

They are fully funded for 5 drills..........

WH-1 320p unrisked (yes 3 pounds twenty pence)
Fox-1 Just 160p unrisked
Red Deer Just 32p unrisked I am afraid
Gazelle Just 8.5p unrisked
One other..... circa 15p a share unrisked.

And given they are fully funded for 4 more drills once WH-1 completes you reckon 1p a share on duster. And given 320p a share of upside for Wild Horse-1 and the derisking of close to 1 billion recoverable barrels in nearby prospects, you think upside 20p.

Mmmmmmmmmm Are you a newly signed up name of the Fundraiser crew of derampers ? LOL

:)

Here it is :

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2wpkw42.jpg

.