Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Wrong.
The government has said in court they themselves could not stop the approved one exploratory well being drilled now.
The government has said in court that there is no guarantee this will lead to any oil production in future. The statement banded around has always been that the government "cannot unreasonably withhold a production license provided all terms of the exploration license were adhered to". That simple wording means that there are "reasonable" reasons to withhold it.
They will be installing surface facilities at Casca and Chinook in Q3/Q4 2020.........they wont be going near there with a drilling rig imo.
Thats why for me it makes sense to drill 3 wells at Royston............Paul has talked of "adding another 100 fro Royston" and that would tie in with 3 wells.
XM has said they will poke that deep Cretaceous target at Royston with a "future well"...............
Royston also likely extends into the LOL acreage to the North.
So might we see :
Royston-1 - as planned (and if successful)
Royston -2 - appraise Rosyton discovery and go into Cretacous target as well to have a look for oil/gas
Royson-3 - Joint venture well with LOL in the LOL acreage to the North as outlying appraisal well.
roasannan, and I did answer, I said it comes from my range of figures.
Why are you comparing established mature production in the North Sea to Wildcat middle of nowhere no infrastructure (Pc) CCOS values ? Of couse the North Sea has higher Pc values, there is infrastructure in place, there is political stability, there is ongoing production, there is no issue with licenses..........any discovery in the North Sea has very low levels to achieve to be commercially viable (and yet many dusters are drilled in the North Sea every year).
Do you appreciate that RKH Sea Lion discovery, after flow test, after being declared a significant discovery - only had an 80% Pc value applied...........and here we are, over a decade later, still not in production, still waiting for go ahead. Nobody is interested in high cost, stranded, offshore oil.
As some on here seem to know MATD, below were the Pc values for their past wells. The Pc values were higher for MATD as they dont have issues with getting production licenses (hahaha.......still waiting)........and its onshore, so without all the associated offshore cost.
https://i.ibb.co/DWd7f2g/MAT.jpg
The Pc values applied are very much up to interpretation. Generally any Broker worth their salt will show the Pg and Pc values in their reports..................if they hide the Pc value then it naturally follows the Pc value is very low and they dont want to advertise it. If a BPC ramper were to say that a 30 year production license will be given on a red carpet presentation while the people of the Bahamas get on their knees to salute BPC.........then a higher Pc value would be in effect.......as they would not discount all the risk associated with that. Within the Pc value lies nearly all the non technical risks..........
As is always said..... IMO, DYOR !!!
(But dont compare North Sea Pc figures with Wildcat middle of nowhere figures)
What happens after Royston-1 is drilled ?
Well, the road to Casca/Chinook is going to be busy and work ongoing on both sites installing the surface facilities etc....
I believe, if Royston is a success, then they will drill another 2 wells at Royston and plan to bring on another 100 production when Royston goes into production.
Each well giving around 33 per day........
And of course, there is a massive Cretaceous prospect underneath the mid-Miocine gas target.
XM has already said that that Cretaceous target will be poked with a future Royston well, not the initial well, the initial Royston-1 is only going into the mid-Miocine gas target.
So that what I think will happen........ Royston-2 might appraise "the" (all being well) mid-Miocine target but be perfect for the sweet spot of that Cretaceous target which might be oil, or gas........we shall see.
Then a Royston-3 well after than........... allowing at the start of 2022 the surface facilities and pipework to be put in place for 3 wells at Royston while the rig goes off hunting those other 21 prospects........ ?????
Just my thoughts.
In fact, I have been generous, if you really apply a Pe value taking into account the slim chance of there ever being a production license granted after a referendum.........the Pc value would be near to 99% failure imo.
But thats another thing, I am being generous with a Pc value of near 90% failure imo !!!!
Pc = Pg x Pe
The value of Pe is for you to deduce and decide. The values of Pe I am using give a range of Pc of 10% to 14%.
So...........thats "near" 90% Pc (Chance of Commercial Failure).
Why do you need to ask ? Do you not know how this works ?
With a 65% Chance of Geologic Failure, and a near 90% Chance of Comercial failure - how can you say "expected massive oil find" ? Expectation is a nothing.......either water, duster or small non commercial oil shows.
Farm Out if it did strike oil ? My opinion, not until the big issue of getting a production license is sorted.......nobody will farm in before that imo.
Its good, imo, that more people are now aware of the risk that a production license may not be granted.
This is the reason, imo, that a farm out never happened and will never happen until a production license is given.
The rampers had brainwashed many that BPC already had a production license and those not swayed by that were thinking it was a formality.
It is not a formality.
The government has the right to refuse a production license provided the reason is reasonable, as as many have said, this issue is expected to go to a referendum to allow the people of the Bahamas to say yes or no to a production license for BPC if they did, in the unlikely event, strike commercial levels of oil.
Thats why discussion (without the rampers and their abusive, loud and overbearing posts trying to drown it out as they dont want people to understand the truth) is very much a needed thing on any stock.
Happy New Year All
Latest update :
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/31/activists-unarguable-bpc-needed-new-ea/
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Again confirmed that the production license is not a given........and there would be a need for an "informed" decision on whether to grant, or not, a production license. Read that as " a referendum" on the issue imo.
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/31/court-consider-oil-submissions-today/
................of public importance for the government and the people of the Bahamas to know whether there are here possible oil reserves and the purpose of an exploratory exercise of this nature is to then allow an informed decision to be taken as to whether the reserves should be exploited and it doesn’t follow from the fact that exploration is permitted that drilling for oil will ever be permitted.”.......................
I am sure there will be news ahead of the Webinar on the 14th of Jan.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/311
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Lovely end of the year for PANR. Happy New Year all........going to be a fun January with loads of news, a spud and a webinar................
LWD will not confirm an oil strike.
Remember back to DES...........oil that turned to water............
Until they run wireline logging after getting to TD and take fluid samples - nothing is confirmed.
Which is why companies wait until TD is reached before making any announcement........and the results are then "pending" wireline logging confirmation.
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/30/activists-seeking-add-town-planning-oil-drilling-b/
........Joe Darville, a director of both environmental groups, alleged in a December 29, 2020, affidavit that the Town Planning Committee is required by law to halt any projects that breach the planning laws - as he and his fellow activists claim BPC has done.
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The oil explorer and its attorneys have argued that laws such as the Planning and Subdivision Act, from which the Town Planning Committee derives much of its authority, and the Conservation and Protection of the Physical Landscape of The Bahamas Act, do not apply to its project as they only cover land-based activities - not offshore oil drilling.
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The activists, though, are disputing this and alleging that there has been a failure to grant site plan approvals and hold public consultation as required by the Act in relation to BPC's project...................
Figures might be wrong, I see Volantis sold a few million already.
Their current holding as per RNS is 329m shares (not the 375m) - so the average might still be ok at the moment
Findme.
IF a production license were to be granted, it would be a 30 year one. They do not have it now. They are running on an exploration license which expires very soon.
They have to find oil, prove its commercial and THEN apply for a production license of 30 years.
It is then up to the government to grant, or not, a Production license.
2.1p to sell.
So at the current share price, if it were to continue, BPC have to pay back to Volantis once the terms as per the RNS come into play imo.
375,000,000 x 0.2p (2.3-2.1) = 750K GBP to be paid back to Volantis
Thats the way the Volantis deal works AFAIK.
IMO, DYOR !!!!
HereHopin....you seem angry.
Look, every person is responsible for their decision. It was your decision to buy BPC, and whenever it is, it will your decision to sell it.
You are responsible for your actions. If you lose money, you are responsible. If you win money, you are responsible.
The simple fact you are angry says to me :
You are not an investor........you are not investing in BPC imo. You are a gambler in my opinion. You are hoping for a quick gain. Gamblers are angry people, Gamblers are what they are. Gamblers get abusive, violent, angry generally as they take high risk.............
IMO !!
Easy to understand "............but that does not mean approval will be granted to drill for oil beyond the exploration exercise......"
https://ewnews.com/govt-argues-to-keep-drilling-on-course-cites-risks-to-environment-and-investor-confidence
..........Aiden Casey, QC, on behalf of the government, argued that the course of action that presented the least risk to the environment, as well as investor confidence, would be to allow BPC to complete the drilling of its exploratory well rather than stop “at this late stage”.
He said the matter being of public interest is not a strong argument for the delay and an extension of time, as there is precedence and respect for the duty to act promptly.
Casey said the well will never serve for the extraction of oil and will be capped once the exercise is completed.
He said the Bahamian people deserve to know whether there is oil in The Bahamas, but that does not mean approval will be granted to drill for oil beyond the exploration exercise.......................
Why do you think BPC have never been able to farm out ????????????