Member Info for Proselenes

And no problem....the drilling can be stopped anytime.......at a casing point most likely.

Expected really........lets see what happens.

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/23/oil-explorer-fears-its-major-100m-asset-extinguish/

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Well. This well has a near 90% Chance of Commercial failure (Pc)

Also, its very likely they will take another wedge of cash very soon, within 10 business days of spud. So another massive load of shares to be sold into the market soon is most likely.

And also, they have to find the money to pay for Trinidad work in 2021.

So with a 90% Pc chance of commercial failure (derived from the Pg value of 35% alongside making a discovery big enough and valuable enough to be commercial) and loads more shares to be issued with more fund raising........it was no surprise at all to be at 2.3p levels on spud.

If the next load of shares are issued at a lower price than the last lot at 2p, then the share price might be down to 2p levels in a few weeks.

This well has a 35% Chance of Success (Pg) - they need to drill at least three wells in order to strike a valid trap filled with oil.

This is where the odds work against........ a 65% chance of failure is the overriding factor.

For BPC they have struggled for 10 years to drill this one well - so a complete ban on further drilling is coming for sure imo........the government will not sanction more exploration.

So a "technical success" - finding a bit of oil.........is USELESS.

The only way forward I see for BPC is to have a "Commercial Success" such as they can attempt to invoke a Production license.

Now........the chance of Commercial Success (Pc) is just over 10%.

So now you have a 90% Chance of Failure with this well.

If they strike oil but its only very small and noncommercial - game over. No production license and no more drilling - done - finished. The exploration license expires with JUST ONE DRILL.

So in reality, the odds are really stacked against.......they not only have to strike oil, but the HAVE to strike a commercial size and proven.

Thats a 1 in 10 shot.........if you win, well done........not for me though.

IMO, DYOR !!

A good post by MT at ADVFN detailing the basic workings of the deal.

Paul has provided enough data to work out what 'only' $2.2bn of nat gas contract revenue from Ortoire actually means in terms of the expected total field production and field life.

Paul suggested 80-100 MMcfd of nat gas production, and a NGC contract revenue range of $1.6bn up to $2.2bn, at an average price of $2.50 Mcf.

Let's assume a mid range production figure of 90 MMcfd and $1.9bn total contract revenue.

This generates revenue of: 90 MMcfd x $2.50 Mcf = $225,000/day / $82m/year

Expected Annual production = 90 MMcfd x 365 = 32.8 Bcf/year

Expected Field Life = $1.9bn divided by $82m/year = 23.2 years

Expected Production during life of the contact = 23.2 years x 32.8 Bcf/year = 761 Bcf

Therefore, the management assumes for a contract revenue range of $1.6bn up to $2.2bn, the 2P reserves of Coho, Cascadura and Chinook combined will likely be, subject to successful further testing, in the range of 641 Bcf to 881 Bcf.

Any additional reserves generated from exploration drilling success at the deeper Cascadura Zone, the mighty Royston or any of the other 21 Turbidite Herrera prospects will most likely get simply added to the contract value pro-rata to the figures above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5Tlw1dSBcw

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Sorry, uploaded the wrong one. Click the link again and now its the new one.

Ok.

Now corrected.

Correct Dec 18th 2020 FinnCap update on TXP in the link below.

https://gofile.io/d/NVAHWT

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Dec 18th FinnCap update on TXP link, PDF file.

https://gofile.io/d/NVAHWT

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https://www.energyvoice.com/markets/282361/rusty-diversified-gas-oil/

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New webinar on 14th January featuring TXP.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/311

It is a Webinar (not an attended event in London). When you register you will get a link to the Webinar event.

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Well worth a listen.......comments on TXP - he is most excited about Touchstone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=u0Fx3ySbii4

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You do wonder how a judge is going to see this for example. The company openly states in 1st Dec 2020 RNS that they could be in a position where they dont have the funds to complete drilling .................

.........In circumstances where neither the Conditional Convertible Note facility nor the Zero-coupon Facility are available (for example, where the conditions precedent set out in the Conditional Convertible Note Subscription Agreement are not satisfied or waived by the Subscribers), the Company may not have sufficient cash to complete the drilling of the Perseverance #1 well and/or may not have sufficient cash to undertake the full scope of the work program planned for Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname in 2021. In such circumstances the Company would look to secure funding by way of alternative sources, as detailed above. There can be no assurance, however, that the Company would be successful in securing any such alternative funding. .......

As expected........very nasty for all shareholders left holding this baby now.

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https://tinyurl.com/y6rbsu8a

Touchstone Exploration Inc: Shore capital hail exceptional drilling results and future strong earnings

Darren Turgel December 9, 2020


Touchstone Exploration Inc (LON:TXP) is the topic of conversation when we caught up with Craig Howie Natural Resources Equity Research Analyst at Shore Capital.

Q. Craig you’ve just published a note on Touchstone Exploration following the company’s drilling update. What were the key points you noted from the update?

Our note focuses on the exceptional result achieved following drilling of Touchstone’s Cascadura Deep exploration well – this has proved to be the best well drilled by the company to date, discovering significant hydrocarbon accumulations and continuing its 100% drilling success rate at Ortoire in Trinidad.

Q. How does this affect your forecasts?

We have taken the opportunity to introduce forecasts for FY2022F, which show strong earnings and cash flow progression whilst setting a conservative baseline ahead of Chinook and Cascadura Deep production testing.

Q. How do you view the outlook for the company?

We continue to see considerable remaining running room for the shares, highlighting forthcoming Chinook and Cascadura Deep testing, tie-in of the Coho and Cascadura-1ST1 wells and Royston drilling as important potential catalysts in the months ahead. In addition, the company continues to work towards finalisation of a gas sales agreement for Ortoire gas, something which we also think could provide yet more good news near term.

Q. In terms of fair value, how do you see Touchstone?

We do not have recommendations on house stocks although our Risked NAV estimate has been materially upgraded, reflecting the significant value that Touchstone has added to the flagship Ortoire project since drilling commenced last year.

New update. Plenty of detail.

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/dec/09/oil-explorer-fearing-500m-harm/

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WHI November note on PANR

In case anyone could not download from the uploadfile.io site, I have not put it also on GoFile. Link to the PDF note is below.

https://gofile.io/d/FQVbvS

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FinnCap Dec update on TXP

In case anyone could not download the copy on uploadfile.io I have now put it on GoFile. Link to the PDF file is below

https://gofile.io/d/UGJ8xI

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The trend is your friend. Going to keep doing this, going up......then consolidation and fall back a bit.........then next let up........repeat.....repeat.....repeat..........

Just got to keep holding and adding imo. The hardest thing to do at times is just sit on your hands while a little pull back and consolidation occurs.......but that is the key here.......the big rewards for shareholders will be seen in 2022, if TXP is not taken over by then already.

The long step by step rise to 400 to 500p levels is in process.

Looks like the situation could explode very soon.

Would not want to be holding this if things get held up. BPC dont have the cash to drill as it stands and need to use CLN or something to raise more cash............ a further delay and legal problems would be very nasty.

Cenkos note on DGOC in the link below, PDF file.

https://ufile.io/5mxyj0c8

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